Storm Warning 119, NWS Anchorage, AK

377 
FZAK52 PAFC 031559 RRA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-040130-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 988 MB LOW 350 NM NORTH OF ATTU WILL DEEPEN TO 984 MB AS IT
TRACKS TO 200 NM WEST OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN
FILL TO 990 MB AS IT HEADS TO THE BERING STRAIT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW 300 NM SOUTH OF ATTU THIS AFTERNOON MOVES
NEAR ADAK AT 962 MB WED MORNING AND 967 MB 50 NM NORTH OF UNIMAK
ISLAND THU MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-040130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ155-040130-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 33 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ160-040130-
BRISTOL BAY-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ165-040130-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM PORT
MOLLER E...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ170-040130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 40 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ171-040130-
UNALASKA BAY-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-040130-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. 
SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.THU...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-040130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 29 FT.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-040130-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 17 FT
BUILDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 55 KT. SEAS 35 FT.
.THU...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ175-040130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 55 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-040130-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 24 FT
BUILDING TO 31 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 32 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-040130-
ADAK TO KISKA-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. BERING
SIDE...SEAS 11 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 60 KT BY MIDDAY. SEAS 21 FT
BERING SIDE...27 FT PACIFIC SIDE. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-040130-
KISKA TO ATTU-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
BERING SIDE...SEAS 9 FT. PACIFIC SIDE...SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 16
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-040130-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ180-040130-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ181-040130-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ185-040130-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
337 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT IS NOW CLEARING THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE MODEST...WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS AND LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MUCH OF ANCHORAGE. WITH THAT
STORM GONE...THE NEXT ONE ON THE TRAIN IS ALREADY MAKING ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ARE ALL SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.
RAIN HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THUS FAR ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...IT WILL BRING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. MORE ON THAT BELOW...

A LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTH...THOUGH
SLOW RECESSION IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN BERING...AND A VERY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

THIS PARADE OF STORMS IS MOVING ALONG AN ENERGETIC JET ORIENTED IN
A NEAR-ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE CORE OF THE 130 KT JET STREAK IS MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WEST OF THE JET STREAK ALONG THE ENTRANCE
REGION...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS HELPING
DEVELOP THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
LOW IS RACING NORTHEAST ALONG THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK...HENCE THE VERY SHORT RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE ASIAN CONTINENT NOW
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND ENERGIZE OVER THE COMING DAYS...WHICH
WILL REALLY HELP TO INVIGORATE THE FAST MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID-LATE WEEK ALONG THE SOUTHERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF THE
NEXT STORM MOVING THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF ALONG...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THE EARLY DOWNSLOPING AS THE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE CHUGACH. THIS HAS SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW
MUCH SNOW IS SEEN IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE STORM PULLS
FURTHER EAST AND THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY DOWNSLOPING WILL QUICKLY END. AGREEMENT
IS ALSO HIGH ON RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER RETURNING TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BERING.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS STORM IS THE STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF THE WIND FIELD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FUTURE UPDATES
SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR THE STORMS TRACK AND STRENGTH. WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...WITH MUCH LESS INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE. A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP AREAS LIKE THE MATANUSKA VALLEY MUCH DRIER...WITH ONLY
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARDS ANCHORAGE. MOST SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPING UP
GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC
LOW PASSING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW TRACK WOULD PROMOTE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...WITH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
DROPPING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO START MIXING WITH SNOW OVER AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF DILLINGHAM. HOWEVER TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH
AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES
DROP ENOUGH FOR IT TO FINALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING...AS A STRONG LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MUCH STRONGER LOW
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE TO
MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BERING
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW
WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES FROM DUTCH HARBOR TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH NORTHWEST FACING GAPS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE LOW SKIRTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 25 TO 35 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIANS WHILE THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA COULD EXPERIENCE SEAS
OF 15 TO 25 FEET.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY SIMPLE AS A STOUT
WARM FRONT SLAMS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TO 0 TO -2 DEGREES
CELSIUS WHICH SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY HOLD ONTO COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND GRADUALLY
CHANGE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW STARTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WITH A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET
PASSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN BACK TO THE BERING SEA AS ANOTHER NEAR
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY AS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF OF KAMCHATKA. MODELS
ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS
ALSO 7 DAYS OUT. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
FAVOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND NO PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS IN SIGHT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 132
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 136 137 138 139 150 155 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MC