High Wind Watch 3, NWS Anchorage, AK

047 
WWAK72 PAFC 031358
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
458 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015


AKZ187-040300-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0003.151104T2000Z-151105T1000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
458 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

* WIND...WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 45 TO 60 MPH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WIND WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM ADAK
  WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST BEYOND ATKA BY
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
  LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

536 
WWAK72 PAFC 040101
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
401 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

AKZ187-041415-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0003.151104T2000Z-151105T1000Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0007.151104T1700Z-151105T1000Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
401 PM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM AKST
THURSDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 50 TO 65 MPH
  WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 75 MPH.

* TIMING...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM ADAK
  WEST WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SPREAD EAST BEYOND ATKA BY
  WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE
  WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE DEBRIS AND MAY DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
545 AM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF ANADYR AND
COVERING THE BERING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WESTERN HALF OF
MAINLAND ALASKA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER FEATURE
INFLUENCING THE FORECAST AREA. A SERIES OF WAVES RIPPLE THROUGH
THE BROAD TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER. THE SURFACE
LOW CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHERN BERING WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST OVER
SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH ANOTHER SMALLER WAVE FOLLOWING FROM THE
WESTERN BERING AND THIRD ROTATING OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA.

FURTHER TO THE SOUTH THE NEXT DEVELOPING STRONG LOW IS STARTING TO
SPIN UP SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS FEATURE HAS GOOD SUPPORT
FROM A JET STREAK MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST SO SHOULD CONTINUE
TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN AND THEN BE QUICKLY CARRIED TO THE EAST
NORTHEAST BY THE BROADER JET STREAM.

IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA A WEAK FRONTAL FEATURE WHICH CROSSED THE
ALASKA RANGE EARLIER...A MESO LOW TRAVELING UP COOK INLET AND A
SECOND SMALL UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY PUSHING ACROSS THE ALASKA
RANGE ARE ALL COMBINING TO BRING SNOW TO THE WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS AND
SURROUNDING MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT WITH THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES FOCUSED ON THE TRACK OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS IT SPINS UP SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND SLIDES ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA. WHILE THE
DISPERSION OF MODEL TRACKS HAS TIGHTENED UP IN THE LAST FEW RUNS
THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION WHICH SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THE LOW
WILL HUG OR WHETHER IT WILL TRY TO TRACK UP THE CREST. PREFERENCE
WAS GIVEN TO THE NAM AND EC WHICH KEEP THE LOW JUST ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE ASSOCIATED FRONT PROGRESSES EASTWARD
AND DISSIPATES. WHILE SNOWFALL INTENSITY WILL DECREASE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS...ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLICK FOR THE MORNING
COMMUTE DUE TO SNOWFALL OVER NIGHT.

THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE SHORT TERM...AND A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE GULF OF
ALASKA BY TUESDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN
GAPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW PROGRESSES ACROSS
THE GULF. SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR A RAIN AND SNOW MIX...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL AREAS.
A FEW QUICK INCHES OF WET SNOW ARE ALSO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
FOR INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ARE
FOCUSED ON PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS FOR PORTIONS OF BRISTOL
BAY AS A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC LOW PASSES JUST SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW TRACK
WOULD PROMOTE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR HEAVY
PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY...BUT IT
REMAINS UNCLEAR IF TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO ALLOW A
CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. CURRENTLY EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX...WITH A FEW INCHES OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN A
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR NORTH AND EAST OF KING SALMON.
PRECIPITATION WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW
RAPIDLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT MOIST
AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING AS THE STRONG LOW
PASSES JUST TO THE SOUTH LATER TODAY...BRINGING RAIN AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AS
THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BERING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW MOVING TOWARDS THE BERING
STRAIT SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A MUCH STRONGER LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
BRINGING POTENTIAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
BERING DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...WED THROUGH SUN)...

THE MID-TERM/EXTENDED PERIOD IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND MOVES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
HAVE REALLY LOCKED ONTO THIS SOLUTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
AND THE UPDATED FORECAST REFLECTS THE CONFIDENCE WITH STORM FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
ENOUGH ENERGY TO HELP CREATE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SOUTH OF OUR
AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY. HOWEVER...HIGH SEAS NEARING 30 FT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN OUR AREA ALONG THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS. SEAS OF 20 TO 25 FT COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE ONE ASPECT
OF THIS SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE MONITORED IS THE COLD AIR
ADVECTION THAT HAPPENS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. COLDER
AIR FILTERING IN FROM SIBERIA WILL STEEPEN THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WHICH WILL HELP BRING DOWN GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND POSSIBLY
PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

A STOUT WARM FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND ON LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS AS RAIN. THE ONLY PLACE WHERE SNOW LOOKS
LIKE A POSSIBILITY WOULD BE THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHERE COLD
AIR TENDS TO BE ENTRENCHED AND TAKE SOME TIME TO BE DISPLACED.
PRECIPITATION TYPE BECOMES A BIT OF A CHALLENGE ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH A GOOD PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE FRONT SHOULD MODIFY A BIT AS IT CROSSES SOUTHWEST ALASKA BUT
SHOULD STILL RAISE 850 MB TEMPS TO 0 TO -2 DEGREES CELSIUS WHICH
WOULD FAVOR MORE RAIN THAN SNOW. COLD AIR SHOULD QUICKLY REPLACE
THE WARMER AIR WHICH WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A TRANSITION OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW. THAT IS SOMETHING THAT WILL BECOME MUCH
CLEARER ONCE THE SYSTEM IS SAMPLED BY THE ALASKA UPPER AIR
NETWORK...OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE DATA. NEEDLESS TO SAY AN
ACTIVE PERIOD OF WEATHER LOOKS TO UNFOLD AND IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE WELL PAST THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNINGS...119 131 132 136 150 155 178 181

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JR
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...MC/MSO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1010 AM AKST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1009 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
11/02/2015  M3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL. 0.25 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1125 AM AKST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             6 W LAZY MOUNTAIN       61.63N 149.12W
11/02/2015  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            MILE 6.5 PALMER-FISHHOOK RD. SNOW BEGAN ABOUT 1420 ON
            11/1

0631 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
11/02/2015  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM OVERNIGHT.

0747 AM     SNOW             1 E TALKEETNA           62.34N 150.06W
11/02/2015  E2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            TALKEETNA SPUR

0815 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
11/02/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1009 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
11/02/2015  M3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL. 0.25 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1233 PM AKST MON NOV 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     SNOW             6 W LAZY MOUNTAIN       61.63N 149.12W
11/02/2015  M3.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            MILE 6.5 PALMER-FISHHOOK RD. SNOW BEGAN ABOUT 1420 ON
            11/1

0631 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
11/02/2015  M2.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL FROM OVERNIGHT.

0747 AM     SNOW             1 E TALKEETNA           62.34N 150.06W
11/02/2015  E2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            TALKEETNA SPUR

0815 AM     SNOW             SUTTON                  61.72N 148.88W
11/02/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

1009 AM     SNOW             3 S RIDGEWAY            60.49N 151.08W
11/02/2015  M3.1 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVERNIGHT SNOWFALL TOTAL. 0.25 INCHES LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

1226 PM     SNOW             7 SE EAGLE RIVER        61.25N 149.42W
11/02/2015  M3.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            ALONG HILAND RD.

&&

JPW