Gale Warning 739, NWS Anchorage, AK

929 
FZAK51 PAFC 031558 RRA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-040215-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 992 MB LOW NEAR KODIAK ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 988 MB MIDDAY AND TO JUST SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT
993 MB THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING INLAND THROUGH THE PANHANDLE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF
WEDNESDAY.


$$

PKZ119-040215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING...BECOMING N
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT...INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-040215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT...BECOMING N WIND 40 KT IN THE MORNING.
SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE MORNING. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-040215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING...AND
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT IN
THE MORNING...AND SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-040215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  WEST
OF HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF HINCHINBROOK
ENTRANCE...SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-040215-
PORT VALDEZ-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE WIND 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-040215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-040215-
VALDEZ ARM-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-040215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-040215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT IN THE MORNING...DECREASING
TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ131-040215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 50 KT BECOMING NW WIND 50 KT IN THE MORNING. NW
WIND DIMINISHING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 17
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-040215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ136-040215-
CHINIAK BAY-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-040215-
MARMOT BAY-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-040215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT THROUGH BAYS AND
PASSES...BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING
TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ139-040215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-040215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT
SUBSIDING TO 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-040215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
358 AM AKST TUE NOV 3 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
ALONG THE OUTER BAY 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO
3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT IS NOW CLEARING THE EASTERN COPPER RIVER BASIN AT THIS TIME.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE MODEST...WITH ONLY A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN
MOST AREAS AND LESS THAN AN INCH FOR MUCH OF ANCHORAGE. WITH THAT
STORM GONE...THE NEXT ONE ON THE TRAIN IS ALREADY MAKING ITS
PRESENCE KNOWN IN SOUTHWEST ALASKA...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES ALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY ARE ALL SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.
RAIN HAS BEEN THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE THUS FAR ALONG THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. AS IT MOVES INTO
THE GULF OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...IT WILL BRING
ACTIVE WEATHER TO PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. MORE ON THAT BELOW...

A LOW CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT HAS BEEN
PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG THE COAST FROM KIPNUK NORTH...THOUGH
SLOW RECESSION IN THE WAVE HEIGHTS IS EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE
NEXT WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN BERING...AND A VERY STRONG
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING
FOR MID-LATE WEEK.

THIS PARADE OF STORMS IS MOVING ALONG AN ENERGETIC JET ORIENTED IN
A NEAR-ZONAL PATTERN ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA...AND
ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE CORE OF THE 130 KT JET STREAK IS MOVING
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. WEST OF THE JET STREAK ALONG THE ENTRANCE
REGION...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS IS HELPING
DEVELOP THE LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. THE
LOW IS RACING NORTHEAST ALONG THE CORE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED JET
STREAK...HENCE THE VERY SHORT RETURN OF ACTIVE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE COMING OFF THE ASIAN CONTINENT NOW
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND ENERGIZE OVER THE COMING DAYS...WHICH
WILL REALLY HELP TO INVIGORATE THE FAST MOVING STORM EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
MID-LATE WEEK ALONG THE SOUTHERN BERING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT PERTAINING TO THE TRACK OF THE
NEXT STORM MOVING THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT AND INTO THE WESTERN
GULF ALONG...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN ON THE EXTENT AND
DURATION OF THE EARLY DOWNSLOPING AS THE FLOW NORTH OF THE LOW
PASSES THROUGH THE CHUGACH. THIS HAS SOME IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW
MUCH SNOW IS SEEN IN THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND WESTERN KENAI
PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. AS THE STORM PULLS
FURTHER EAST AND THE CENTER PASSES SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
ALL MODELS AGREE THAT ANY DOWNSLOPING WILL QUICKLY END. AGREEMENT
IS ALSO HIGH ON RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER RETURNING TO
SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS ACROSS THE BERING.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WITH THIS STORM IS THE STRENGTH AND
COVERAGE OF THE WIND FIELD. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY FUTURE UPDATES
SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR THE STORMS TRACK AND STRENGTH. WITH
GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEMS...FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY...STRENGTHENING TO STORM FORCE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN GULF. THIS WILL ALSO SPREAD MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...WITH SNOW INLAND AND RAIN AND SNOW ALONG THE
COAST. THIS PATTERN TENDS TO FAVOR THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS...WITH MUCH LESS INLAND...ESPECIALLY NORTH
TOWARD THE ALASKA RANGE. A LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL KEEP AREAS LIKE THE MATANUSKA VALLEY MUCH DRIER...WITH ONLY
LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS TOWARDS ANCHORAGE. MOST SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN
THE LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY THE AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
LINGER THE LONGEST IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN BEFORE ENDING BY THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
THE LOW MOVES EAST...WITH AN OFFSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT RAMPING UP
GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE PRIMARY FOCUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND FOR THE SHORT-TERM
FORECAST REMAINS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE BRISTOL BAY ZONE TONIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A DEEP NORTH PACIFIC
LOW PASSING THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
LATE TONIGHT. THIS LOW TRACK WOULD PROMOTE AN AREA OF FAVORABLE
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF
BRISTOL BAY...WITH COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM
DROPPING TEMPERATURES ENOUGH TO START MIXING WITH SNOW OVER AREAS
NORTH AND EAST OF DILLINGHAM. HOWEVER TIMING IS EVERYTHING WITH
THIS SYSTEM...AND THERE IS STILL THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH
AVAILABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LEFT BY THE TIME THE TEMPERATURES
DROP ENOUGH FOR IT TO FINALLY TRANSITION TO SNOW. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS HIGH THAT THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION TO A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING. PRECIPITATION
WILL THEN QUICKLY TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AS THE LOW RAPIDLY MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE INITIAL FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINS ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN BERING...AS A STRONG LOW
TRACKS THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO THE WESTERN GULF
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA...WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. OTHERWISE...RAIN
SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BERING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVING TOWARDS THE BERING STRAIT SWINGS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL BERING. THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A MUCH STRONGER LOW
APPROACHING THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM FORCE TO
MINIMUM HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN BERING
AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS LARGELY DOMINATED BY A DEEP AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW
WILL BE ON A WEAKENING TREND AS IT PUSHES FROM DUTCH HARBOR TOWARD
KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE LOW WILL BE
WEAKENING...STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR STRONGER WINDS TO
MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN ADDITION...A WEAK ISALLOBARIC
COMPONENT WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTAINS IN
RESPONSE TO WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING BEHIND THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH WITH
POTENTIALLY STRONGER GUSTS THROUGH NORTHWEST FACING GAPS. SEAS
WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN AS THE LOW SKIRTS ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 25 TO 35 FEET ARE EXPECTED ON THE PACIFIC SIDE OF
THE ALEUTIANS WHILE THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA COULD EXPERIENCE SEAS
OF 15 TO 25 FEET.

PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS PRETTY SIMPLE AS A STOUT
WARM FRONT SLAMS INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY WARM TO 0 TO -2 DEGREES
CELSIUS WHICH SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE LOWER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY HOLD ONTO COLD AIR LONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW BEFORE EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL WHERE PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY FALL AS RAIN WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES. EVENTUALLY
COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW AND GRADUALLY
CHANGE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW STARTING ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ON FRIDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA ON SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPING
CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AND CHUGACH MOUNTAINS WITH A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET
PASSING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN BACK TO THE BERING SEA AS ANOTHER NEAR
GALE FORCE FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE BERING SEA ON SUNDAY AS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES OFF OF KAMCHATKA. MODELS
ARE IN A BIT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AT THIS TIME BUT IT IS
ALSO 7 DAYS OUT. REGARDLESS...THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO
FAVOR AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND NO PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS IN SIGHT AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH 187.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 132
         GALE WARNING 119 120 130 131 136 137 138 139 150 155 176 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...MC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
751 PM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

AKZ101-111-121-125-145-031700-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...
GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
751 PM AKST MON NOV 2 2015

...LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING COMMUTE
ON TUESDAY. WET ROADS AND SURFACES FROM MELTED PRECIPITATION ON
MONDAY WILL RE-FREEZE WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR FREEZING OR
BELOW. THIS COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
CAUSE ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES TO BE SLICK TUESDAY MORNING.