Small Craft Advisory 907, NWS Anchorage, AK

335 
FZAK52 PAFC 161204
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170045-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 75 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A COMPLEX NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED WEATHER FRONT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING MON NIGHT AND BECOMES A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING TUE NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING 981 MB LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST TO 330 NM WEST OF ATTU TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170045-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170045-
BRISTOL BAY-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170045-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
FROM PORT MOLLER EAST.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170045-
UNALASKA BAY-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170045-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170045-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170045-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170045-
ADAK TO KISKA-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170045-
KISKA TO ATTU-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170045-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170045-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170045-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170045-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
304 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

284 
FZAK52 PAFC 161810 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

UPDATED ZONE 155

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-170415-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 999 MB LOW NEAR 75 NM SOUTH OF COLD BAY DISSIPATES AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A COMPLEX NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED WEATHER FRONT WITH EMBEDDED LOWS ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN
BERING MON NIGHT AND BECOMES A WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BERING TUE NIGHT. A STRENGTHENING 981 MB LOW MOVES
NORTHEAST TO 330 NM WEST OF ATTU TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-170415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-170415-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

UPDATED

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND 20 KT
INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-170415-
BRISTOL BAY-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-170415-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY
FROM PORT MOLLER EAST. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ170-170415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ171-170415-
UNALASKA BAY-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-170415-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-170415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-170415-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-170415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-170415-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ177-170415-
ADAK TO KISKA-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ178-170415-
KISKA TO ATTU-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-170415-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-170415-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-170415-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-170415-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
910 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO
30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT.
SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

738 
FZAK52 PAFC 170054
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-171330-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...A 990 MB LOW 320 NM
NORTH OF SHEMYA TUE WILL MOVE TO 30 NM NORTH OF MEKORYUK AT 996
MB WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTHEAST OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA TUE AND TRACK TO 80 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA AT 979
MB WED AFTERNOON. THESE LOWS WILL PUSH A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS
ACROSS THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ150-171330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 11 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ155-171330-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SW WIND
20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ160-171330-
BRISTOL BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6
FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY....MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ165-171330-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT.
SNOW IN THE MORNING BECOMING RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY...E OF PORT
MOLLER IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ170-171330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ171-171330-
UNALASKA BAY-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-171330-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-171330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ174-171330-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-171330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-171330-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-171330-
ADAK TO KISKA-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-171330-
KISKA TO ATTU-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 45 KT. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ179-171330-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-171330-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TUESDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT DEVELOPING. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-171330-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-171330-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
354 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...NORTH
OF ST MATTHEW.
.TUE...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING E IN THE
AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...E WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A GENERALLY COLD AND TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT INITIATED LIGHT SNOW IN
VALDEZ...CORDOVA...AND GLENNALLEN THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST PAST THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN YUKON.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS LOW HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY AS A LOW-END STORM-FORCE CENTER...AND IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE BERING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW EAST AND THEN SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND IS BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MAINLAND AND
PROVIDE FOR COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WITH THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE GULF...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK IN
THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG YET
TRANSITORY RIDGING BEHIND IT TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE MONDAY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS GALE-
FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MUCH WARMER AIR MASS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
BY THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF ALONG THE BERING
SEA COAST AND THE SECONDARY WRAP THAT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHCENTRAL IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...BUT THIS WILL TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED QUITE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE WIND...BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS.

THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH CONTINUED COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
A KEY CHANGE IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. INSTEAD OF SIMPLY
HAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT...ALL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES AN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL TRACK ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A
SEPARATE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FEATURES
WILL USHER IN A RESUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY WITH A RESIDUAL
TROUGH/LOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WHEN YOU PUT THIS
ALL TOGETHER THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR THE GULF COAST. WIND OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AREAS WHICH DO
OBSERVE A LITTLE WIND WILL SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN AREAS WITH
NO WIND. IN ANY CASE THE AIR MASS WILL BE AS COLD IF NOT COLDER
THAN THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO EXPECT CONTINUED VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN COLDER AIR
FROM THE NORTH. LATE ON MONDAY A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS IN OVER THE
COAST BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL
PASS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BRINGING SNOW AND SEVERAL CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY. EVEN THROUGH
THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW THE WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE RIDGING IS BUILDING
IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH IS CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THE RIDGE IS A WARMER SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AS IT TRACKS
TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GREATLY WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH IS
REPLACED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES THIS
FEATURE OFF TO THE EAST AND TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED WAVES TRAVERSING THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE...EUROPEAN
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE MAINLAND AND HOLD BACK MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LENDS BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING TROUBLE PINNING
DOWN THE DETAILS OVER THE BERING NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE GENERALLY
ADVERTISING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THURSDAY IS EVER PRESENT.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND A SERIES OF VORT MAXES EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE
DRASTICALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE DEGREE OF WAA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE COLDER SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A
SNOWY PATTERN THAT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS PAINTS THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE PICTURE WITH VERY
STRONG WAA AND A CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. IF THE GFS WERE
TO PAN OUT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
SLOW TO REACT TO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN EVENT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
STILL A WAYS OFF AND WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN NO DETAILS CAN
REALLY BE IRONED OUT AT THIS TIME. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 181
         GALE...150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB/MMC