Gale Warning 712, NWS Anchorage, AK

506 
FZAK61 PAFC 161218
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-170215-
318 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 53N 137W MOVES INLAND NEAR ANNETTE AROUND 
MIDDAY AT 972 MB. A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WEAKENS THROUGH TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-170215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
318 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-170215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
318 AM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

471 
FZAK61 PAFC 170046
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-171515-
346 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH WED. A SERIES OF WEATHER FRONTS WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ351-171515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
346 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ352-171515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
346 PM AKST MON NOV 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

339 
FZAK61 PAFC 171230
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
330 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-180200-
330 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
WED NIGHT. A 1011 MB LOW FORMS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS WED
AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO NEAR CAPE SAINT ELIAS WED NIGHT.


$$

PKZ351-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
330 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

PKZ352-180200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
330 AM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

251 
FZAK61 PAFC 180031
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
331 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-181515-
331 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 142W MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE WED MORNING. A
1010 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 59N 152W LATE WED AFTERNOON...THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY THU. A STRONG FRONT
APPROACHES THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-181515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
331 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ352-181515-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
331 PM AKST TUE NOV 17 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

117 
FZAK61 PAFC 181211
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-190145-
311 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1000 MB LOW NEAR 59N 141W MOVES ONSHORE THU MORNING. A 1010 MB LOW
DEVELOPS NEAR 59N 149W WED EVENING...THEN QUICKLY MOVES TO 59N 139W
BY THU MORNING AND DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON. A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-190145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 TO 28 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-190145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 AM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

992 
FZAK61 PAFC 182359
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
259 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-191415-
259 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU AFTERNOON AND
QUICKLY MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI MORNING. A 988 MB LOW WILL
MOVE TO NEAR 57N 155W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-191415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
259 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 29 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-191415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
259 PM AKST WED NOV 18 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 TO 26 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

765 
FZAK61 PAFC 191212
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
312 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-200200-
312 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF TODAY AND QUICKLY
MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI MORNING. A 988 MB LOW OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA FRI AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 61N 148W FRI NIGHT AT
980 MB.


$$

PKZ351-200200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
312 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 16 TO 26 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-200200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
312 AM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 12 TO 17 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 25 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

109 
FZAK61 PAFC 200023
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-201400-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE EASTERN GULF BY
LATE FRI MORNING. A 988 MB LOW NEAR 56N 158W FRI AFTERNOON WILL
MOVE TO 61N 148W LATE FRI NIGHT AT 983 MB...THEN MOVE INLAND.

$$

PKZ351-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT BUILDING TO 19 TO 25 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 19 TO 28 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-201400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
323 PM AKST THU NOV 19 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 30 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
507 AM AKST SUN NOV 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A GENERALLY COLD AND TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT INITIATED LIGHT SNOW IN
VALDEZ...CORDOVA...AND GLENNALLEN THE LAST 12 TO 24 HOURS
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST PAST THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE
MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND TOWARD THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN YUKON.

A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE IN THE CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS LOW HAS REACHED PEAK
INTENSITY AS A LOW-END STORM-FORCE CENTER...AND IS NOW MOVING
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE BERING IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA. A WEAK FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW EAST AND THEN SOUTH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...AND IS BRINGING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
MAINLY COASTAL LOCATIONS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS
WEEK WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A BROAD TROUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE MAINLAND AND
PROVIDE FOR COLD WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WITH THE JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE GULF...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK IN
THIS REGION WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR AREA BUT IMPACT THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE BY MONDAY.

MEANWHILE...THE WELL-DEFINED LOW IN THE CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND THEN DISSIPATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG YET
TRANSITORY RIDGING BEHIND IT TO QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
BERING AND ALEUTIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
QUICKLY FOLLOWS LATE MONDAY IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS GALE-
FORCE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS TO REPRESENT THE LEADING EDGE OF A
MUCH WARMER AIR MASS TO IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST
BY THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE QPF ALONG THE BERING
SEA COAST AND THE SECONDARY WRAP THAT ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW
ACROSS THE BERING SEA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHCENTRAL IS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED IN AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WITH VERY
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME LIGHT SNOW FALLING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN...BUT THIS WILL TAPER OFF AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT-WAVE EXITS
TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW WHICH HAS BEEN
SITTING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS WILL FINALLY
EXIT TO THE EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT PRESSURE
GRADIENTS AND GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
HAVE REMAINED QUITE A BIT WARMER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF THE WIND...BUT AS WINDS LIGHTEN TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THESE AREAS.

THE GENERAL FORECAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS REMAINS ON TRACK
WITH CONTINUED COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN
A KEY CHANGE IN THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. INSTEAD OF SIMPLY
HAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT...ALL GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES AN UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL TRACK ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHCENTRAL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION...A
SEPARATE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DROP OUT OF THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE WESTERN GULF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE FEATURES
WILL USHER IN A RESUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA MONDAY WITH A RESIDUAL
TROUGH/LOW SETTING UP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. WHEN YOU PUT THIS
ALL TOGETHER THE END RESULT WILL BE ANOTHER FAIRLY STRONG WIND
EVENT FOR THE GULF COAST. WIND OVER INLAND AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AND MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE. AREAS WHICH DO
OBSERVE A LITTLE WIND WILL SEE MILDER TEMPERATURES THAN AREAS WITH
NO WIND. IN ANY CASE THE AIR MASS WILL BE AS COLD IF NOT COLDER
THAN THE AIR MASS IN PLACE. SO EXPECT CONTINUED VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY AS WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING DOWN COLDER AIR
FROM THE NORTH. LATE ON MONDAY A WEAK TROUGH SWINGS IN OVER THE
COAST BRINGING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE
IMPACT FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL BERING IS TRACKING SOUTHEAST AND WILL
PASS OVER THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BRINGING SNOW AND SEVERAL CHANGES
IN WIND DIRECTIONS EVENTUALLY BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY. EVEN THROUGH
THERE IS NOT MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW THE WINDS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG. THE SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO
IMPACT THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE RIDGING IS BUILDING
IN OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHICH IS CLEARING OUT SOME OF THE
PRECIPITATION. FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND THE RIDGE IS A WARMER SYSTEM
THAT WILL BRING RAIN TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY AS IT TRACKS
TO THE EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO REBOUND DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE GREATLY WITH THE EVOLUTION
OF THE PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE TROUGH IS
REPLACED BY WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING. THE GFS QUICKLY MOVES THIS
FEATURE OFF TO THE EAST AND TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED WAVES TRAVERSING THE INTERIOR. MEANWHILE...EUROPEAN
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE MAINLAND AND HOLD BACK MOST OF THE ENERGY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS LENDS BELOW
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST AND TEMPERATURES RETURNING
TO NEAR NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK IN
WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. MODELS ARE ALSO HAVING TROUBLE PINNING
DOWN THE DETAILS OVER THE BERING NEXT WEEK...BUT ARE GENERALLY
ADVERTISING A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FEATURING UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
AS A NUMBER OF SYSTEMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.

WITH THE UPCOMING WEATHER CHANGE LATE THIS WEEK...IT APPEARS THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN IMPACTFUL STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT SOUTHWEST ALASKA
WEDNESDAY AND SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY THURSDAY IS EVER PRESENT.
THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY AMONGST THE GUIDANCE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND A SERIES OF VORT MAXES EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS VARY QUITE
DRASTICALLY BY LATE WEDNESDAY IN THE DEGREE OF WAA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE ECMWF IS BY FAR THE COLDER SOLUTION THAT FAVORS A
SNOWY PATTERN THAT MAY MIX WITH RAIN AT SOME LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS PAINTS THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE PICTURE WITH VERY
STRONG WAA AND A CHANGE OF PRECIPITATION TO RAIN. IF THE GFS WERE
TO PAN OUT...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES WOULD BE
SLOW TO REACT TO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LEAD
TO A WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN EVENT. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE
STILL A WAYS OFF AND WITH THIS UNCERTAIN PATTERN NO DETAILS CAN
REALLY BE IRONED OUT AT THIS TIME. DETAILS SHOULD BECOME CLEARER
IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...160 180 181
         GALE...150 170 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CC
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CB/MMC