Small Craft Advisory 839, NWS Anchorage, AK

138 
FZAK51 PAFC 252309
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-261215-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SUN. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY
MON...AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TUE.

$$

PKZ119-261215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-261215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-261215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-261215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-261215-
PORT VALDEZ-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-261215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-261215-
VALDEZ ARM-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-261215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT 
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-261215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ131-261215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-261215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING
TO 19 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-261215-
CHINIAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING 
TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-261215-
MARMOT BAY-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING 
TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-261215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-261215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-261215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-261215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
309 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

357 
FZAK51 PAFC 261142
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-270030-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MIDDAY TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT 175 NM SOUTHEAST OF SITKINAK ISLAND TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO NEAR PORT HEIDEN AT 981 MB LATE TUE
NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-270030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-270030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-270030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ125-270030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-270030-
PORT VALDEZ-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-270030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-270030-
VALDEZ ARM-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-270030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-270030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ131-270030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-270030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-270030-
CHINIAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-270030-
MARMOT BAY-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-270030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-270030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-270030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-270030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
342 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (TO
THE NORTHEAST) AND CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH IS
ATTACHED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTERED OVER BERING SEA. ANOTHER
TROUGH OFF OF THIS LOW STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND BEHIND THE GULF TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WHICH IS
PICKING UP THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON CHAMPI.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE MAIN ARE OF
FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON
CHAMPI AS THIS LOW WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL NOT CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE MAIN LOW (SOUTHWEST
OF THE ALEUTIANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD) WHILE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL) CONTINUE THAT IDEA.
THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG
LONGITUDE 180 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEY STILL DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AT 985 MB COMPARED TO 965 FOR
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...AND A BIT WITH THE LOCATION (THE GFS A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE OTHER TWO). THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL BEGIN TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOW DUE TO POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE IS ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE STABILITY OF THE MAIN
FEATURES AND BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WHILE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE AND WRANGELL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A NEW FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON DELTA. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AS THE FRONT ROTATES INTO A POSITION ALONG THE
Y-K DELTA AND STALLS ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST. THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR APPROACHING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE REGION AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING LIMITED TO TERRAIN
GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERY STORMY PATTERN IS IN MOTION FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING WIDE SWATHS OF
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN
COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW WILL BE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 20 TO
25 FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON CHAMPI
WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS CHANGED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING A SEPARATE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO GALE
FORCE FROM THE HIGH-END STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOWER THAN
NORMAL DUE TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF ON MONDAY...BRINGING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AND
RAINY CONDITIONS WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SMALL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY. THIS
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION COULD ACT TO REINFORCE AND PROLONG THE
WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INLAND SHOULD
HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN ACTIVE
NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL SPIN ADDITIONAL...PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION FURTHER INLAND.

FURTHER WEST...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALES AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
CURRENT MODELS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS
A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE. AS THESE SYSTEMS WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TUESDAY...THEY WILL PHASE INTO AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNNING ALL THE WAY FROM 160E TO 130W. SMALLER SCALE
CIRCULATIONS SPINNING AROUND IN THE BROADER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BY THURSDAY...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BLAST OF
COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 172
         GALE 125 132 150 155 170 171 173 174 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...TP