Gale Warning 612, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
FZAK61 PAFC 252311
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
311 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-261315-
311 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GULF SUN. A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF EARLY
MON...AND STALLS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH TUE.

$$

PKZ351-261315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
311 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-261315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
311 PM AKDT SUN OCT 25 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

954 
FZAK61 PAFC 261135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-270130-
335 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY MIDDAY TODAY...THEN
SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT. A 979 MB LOW FORMS
ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 55N 150W TUE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 57N
157W AT 981 MB LATE TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-270130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-270130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 AM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.

$$

982 
FZAK61 PAFC 262341
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-271330-
341 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 979 MB LOW AT 51N 154W TUE MORNING MOVES TO 55N 148W AS A 986
MB LOW TUE EVENING THEN MOVES TO 57N 156W BY WED AFTERNOON. A 982
MB LOW FORMS AT 52N 149W TUE AFTERNOON AND MOVES TO 58N 145W AS A
985 MB LOW BY WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-271330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
341 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-271330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
341 PM AKDT MON OCT 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

988 
FZAK61 PAFC 271122
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280100-
322 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TONIGHT...THEN
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WED NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW NEAR 54N 148W TONIGHT MOVES
TO 58N 146W AT 985 MB MIDDAY WED...THEN MOVES TO 58N 150W AT 986 MB
LATE WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-280100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
322 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-280100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
322 AM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

765 
FZAK61 PAFC 272327
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
327 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-281300-
327 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 984 MB LOW AT 50N 154W WED NIGHT MOVES TO 56N 142W AS A 974 MB
LOW BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-281300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
327 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-281300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
327 PM AKDT TUE OCT 27 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO UP TO 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

143 
FZAK61 PAFC 281146
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT WED OCT 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290200-
346 AM AKDT WED OCT 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A BROAD COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL
DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY THU NIGHT. A FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT.


$$

PKZ351-290200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
346 AM AKDT WED OCT 28 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-290200-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
346 AM AKDT WED OCT 28 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO
12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
448 PM AKDT SAT OCT 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THERE IS A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF OF ALASKA. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT IS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (TO
THE NORTHEAST) AND CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE. THIS TROUGH IS
ATTACHED TO AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTERED OVER BERING SEA. ANOTHER
TROUGH OFF OF THIS LOW STRETCHES SOUTH INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. A
CYCLONE TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH IS RAPIDLY DEEPENING ABOUT 400
MILES SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS LOW AND BEHIND THE GULF TROUGH. ANOTHER
TROUGH WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS JUST NORTH OF THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WHICH IS
PICKING UP THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON CHAMPI.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. THE MAIN ARE OF
FORECAST CHALLENGE DEALS WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER TYPHOON
CHAMPI AS THIS LOW WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS NOW AGREE
THAT THIS LOW WILL NOT CURVE BACK TOWARDS THE MAIN LOW (SOUTHWEST
OF THE ALEUTIANS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD) WHILE THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS (NAM AND CANADIAN REGIONAL) CONTINUE THAT IDEA.
THE GLOBAL MODELS BRING THE LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS ALONG
LONGITUDE 180 BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEY STILL DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH...WITH THE GFS THE WEAKEST AT 985 MB COMPARED TO 965 FOR
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN...AND A BIT WITH THE LOCATION (THE GFS A
LITTLE SOUTHEAST OF THE OTHER TWO). THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL BEGIN TRENDING TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTION. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS FEATURE IS LOW DUE TO POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY AND CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ELSEWHERE IS ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE STABILITY OF THE MAIN
FEATURES AND BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. GUSTY GAP WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...WHILE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER ALONG
THE ALASKA RANGE AND WRANGELL MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN. A NEW FRONT WILL BRING RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS TO KODIAK ISLAND BY MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA THIS EVENING
AS THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND
CONTINUES TO ROTATE NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON DELTA. TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH OVERNIGHT FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA. AS THE FRONT ROTATES INTO A POSITION ALONG THE
Y-K DELTA AND STALLS ON SUNDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE
LIMITED TO SHOWERS ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND PORTIONS OF THE
BRISTOL BAY COAST. THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR APPROACHING THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT WILL REINFORCE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AGAIN OVER THE REGION AS
SHORTWAVES ROTATE AROUND THE LOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS LOW...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL STAY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH GUSTY WINDS BEING LIMITED TO TERRAIN
GAPS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A VERY STORMY PATTERN IS IN MOTION FOR THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR
RAPIDLY DEEPENS AND APPROACHES THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT WILL BRING WIDE SWATHS OF
GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIAN
COASTAL WATERS. AS THE LOW WILL BE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST WAVE HEIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
BE ON THE PACIFIC SIDE WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 20 TO
25 FOOT RANGE ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL STAY ELEVATED AS THE
LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH WINDS FALLING BELOW GALE FORCE OVER THE
AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...A FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF KAMCHATKA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY WHILE THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON CHAMPI
WILL APPROACH THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE LOCATION AND THE
DEGREE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO. AS A RESULT...THE FORECAST
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAS CHANGED FAIRLY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. WITH THE MODELS NOW SHOWING A SEPARATE LOW
CENTER MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WINDS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY HAVE BEEN REDUCED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TO GALE
FORCE FROM THE HIGH-END STORM FORCE WINDS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE LOWER THAN
NORMAL DUE TO THE PERFORMANCE OF THE MODELS IN HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE WESTERN
GULF MONDAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN GULF ON MONDAY...BRINGING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY GALES AND
RAINY CONDITIONS WITH IT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY...WITH THE CHANCE OF A
SMALL CIRCULATION DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF ON TUESDAY. THIS
DEVELOPING CIRCULATION COULD ACT TO REINFORCE AND PROLONG THE
WINDY AND RAINY CONDITIONS OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH BOTH
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THESE SYSTEMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
NORTHERLY OFFSHORE FLOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INLAND SHOULD
HELP KEEP PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO THE COASTAL AREAS. AN ACTIVE
NORTH PACIFIC JET STREAM WILL SPIN ADDITIONAL...PROGRESSIVELY
STRENGTHENING FRONTAL SYSTEMS INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST AND
EVENTUALLY SPREADING PRECIPITATION FURTHER INLAND.

FURTHER WEST...A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MONDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD GALES AND PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
CURRENT MODELS REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. AS
A RESULT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING THE TIMING AND STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS REMAINS BELOW
AVERAGE. AS THESE SYSTEMS WEAKEN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
TUESDAY...THEY WILL PHASE INTO AN ELONGATED WEST TO EAST UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH RUNNING ALL THE WAY FROM 160E TO 130W. SMALLER SCALE
CIRCULATIONS SPINNING AROUND IN THE BROADER TROUGH WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS UNSETTLED WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER COVERAGE
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS...ALASKA PENINSULA AND MUCH OF THE BERING AND
SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BERING BY THURSDAY...WHILE A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BLAST OF
COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 172
         GALE 125 132 150 155 170 171 173 174 177 178.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RLF
LONG TERM...TP