Small Craft Advisory 72, NWS Anchorage, AK

967 
FZAK51 PAFC 241415 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-250415-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
THROUGH SUN...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-250415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ120-250415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-250415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT
IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-250415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...EAST OF NAKED ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT. WEST OF NAKED
ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR WESTERN
BAYS AND PASSES. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY NEAR WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-250415-
PORT VALDEZ-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT BY LATE
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-250415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-250415-
VALDEZ ARM-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

UPDATED

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-250415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 4 FT.
SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-250415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-250415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-250415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ136-250415-
CHINIAK BAY-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-250415-
MARMOT BAY-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-250415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ139-250415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-250415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-250415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
515 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

002 
FZAK51 PAFC 242350
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251245-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 989 MB LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND REGION
THROUGH SUN...THEN SLOWLY WEAKEN SUN NIGHT. A FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE SOUTHWEST GULF ON MON.

$$

PKZ119-251245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT EARLY BECOMING W 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN
IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING NE 10 KT. SEAS
9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING TOWARD HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING SE 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ120-251245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-251245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-251245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES...EXCEPT SE 20 KT THROUGH EARLY EVENING W OF NAKED ISLAND.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW IN THE EVENING EAST OF NAKED ISLAND.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF NAKED ISLAND.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY W OF
NAKED ISLAND.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING N 10 KT. SEAS
4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING W OF NAKED ISLAND.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-251245-
PORT VALDEZ-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW MAINLY IN THE
EVENING.
.SUN...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-251245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW IN THE
EVENING.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-251245-
VALDEZ ARM-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN IN THE
EVENING.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-251245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 60 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. NEAR
WHITTIER...GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT IN THE EVENING
DIMINISHING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-251245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT EARLY BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-251245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-251245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-251245-
CHINIAK BAY-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-251245-
MARMOT BAY-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-251245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 30 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT
SUBSIDING. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-251245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY IN THE AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-251245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-251245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
250 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA IS CAUSING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...HELPING
THE TROUGH BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CENTERED OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY (RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH). THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE DIVIDING POINT OF WARM
MOIST AIR AND COLD DRY AIR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE BAND OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BEING OBSERVED
ON THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA RIGHT NEAR THE INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SNOW BAND...WITH NOTHING FALLING AS OF MIDDAY FROM THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND MOST OF THE MAT VALLEY.
THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND
WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS THE STRENGTH OF THE ADVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SETTLING INTO PLACE WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND AMOUNT OF
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GEM-REG IN PARTICULAR ARE SLOWER
TO DEVELOP THE NEGATIVE TILT AND AS A RESULT ARE NOTABLY QUICKER
IN ENDING SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM-GLB SOLUTIONS WHICH
SUPPORT THE IDEA IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
GREATLY AFFECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS IS HANDLED. OTHER THAN THE CHALLENGE
OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SITTING OVER COOK INLET WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT IN THE
COOK INLET REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL INCREASE INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO LIGHTEN
OR TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE MAT
VALLEY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
COOK INLET AND THE KENAI PENINSULA ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW TO
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK WESTWARD. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS... FROM EAST
ANCHORAGE/HILLSIDE TO EAGLE RIVER TO PALMER.

AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT FROM THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ONE INCH OR MORE OF
QPF. VALDEZ WILL INITIALLY BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS THE
HEAVIER PRECIP FIRST MOVES IN. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE BY SATURDAY EVENING SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT
ACCUMULATION. AS YOU HEAD UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
THOMPSON PASS...PRECIP WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO EXPECT ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL KICK IN. WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS IS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...SO WILL TREND STRONGER WITH THESE WINDS IN THE NEW
FORECAST.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM...THOUGH YOU
CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG IN THE COOK INLET
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH THE LACK OF MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BRINING A SLIGHT BUT MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD EASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND BRING SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR WITH
IT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BACK TO
THE ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG ALONG THE GULF. A DRIER PATTERN
ENSUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER
AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AS THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. THE LOW
ADVECTS THE COLDER AIR THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH