Gale Warning 86, NWS Anchorage, AK

270 
FZAK52 PAFC 242349
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251230-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A FRONT LYING SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA SUN NIGHT AND MON.

$$

PKZ150-251230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY ALONG
THE COAST.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-251230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...VARIABLE WIND
10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...SE WIND
20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ160-251230-
BRISTOL BAY-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-251230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4
FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY E OF PORT MOLLER.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ170-251230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY E OF DUTCH
HARBOR.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-251230-
UNALASKA BAY-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-251230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-251230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-251230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-251230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ176-251230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-251230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ178-251230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-251230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-251230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-251230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT.

$$

PKZ185-251230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY FROM
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND E.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKST FRI JAN 23 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE COLD UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
ALASKA IS CAUSING FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AND MORE IMPORTANTLY...HELPING
THE TROUGH BEGIN TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE MAIN BAROCLINIC
ZONE IS CENTERED OVER COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY (RIGHT AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH). THIS IS ESSENTIALLY THE DIVIDING POINT OF WARM
MOIST AIR AND COLD DRY AIR. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A MODERATE BAND OF
SNOW THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR...WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BEING OBSERVED
ON THE WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA RIGHT NEAR THE INLET NORTHWARD TO
THE SUSITNA VALLEY. THERE IS A VERY SHARP GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THIS SNOW BAND...WITH NOTHING FALLING AS OF MIDDAY FROM THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND MOST OF THE MAT VALLEY.
THE BAND OF SNOW HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY THIS MORNING...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BEGIN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
TROUGH MAKES MORE EASTWARD PROGRESS.

OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH A MODERATE STRENGTH LOW IS TRACKING
RAPIDLY NORTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MIDDLETON ISLAND RADAR
SHOWS STRATIFORM PRECIP OUT AHEAD OF IT MAKING ITS WAY NORTH AND
WESTWARD TOWARD EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

COLD AIR ADVECTION FROM SOUTHWEST ALASKA SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS. WINDS ARE SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AS THE STRENGTH OF THE ADVECTION BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A DEEP
ARCTIC AIR MASS IS SETTLING INTO PLACE WITH SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES
BEING OBSERVED ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND EXCEPT FOR THE
SOUTHERN ALASKA PENINSULA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THERE ARE SOME KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE AMPLITUDE AND AMOUNT OF
NEGATIVE TILT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AS IT MOVES THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND GEM-REG IN PARTICULAR ARE SLOWER
TO DEVELOP THE NEGATIVE TILT AND AS A RESULT ARE NOTABLY QUICKER
IN ENDING SNOW FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MATANUSKA
VALLEY. FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH GFS/ECMWF/GEM-GLB SOLUTIONS WHICH
SUPPORT THE IDEA IN THE CURRENT FORECAST THAT SNOW WILL CONTINUE
IN THESE AREAS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DIFFERENCES WILL
GREATLY AFFECT STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS...SO WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
NEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THIS IS HANDLED. OTHER THAN THE CHALLENGE
OF SNOW AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GENERALLY HIGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE BAND OF MODERATE SNOW SITTING OVER COOK INLET WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH SNOW MOVING TO THE
INTERIOR KENAI PENINSULA...ANCHORAGE...AND THE MATANUSKA VALLEY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL REALLY BEGIN TO KICK IN OVERNIGHT IN THE
COOK INLET REGION. EXPECT THIS WILL INCREASE INTENSITY OF
SNOWFALL...SO THERE SHOULD BE SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF SNOW. SNOW MAY BEGIN TO LIGHTEN
OR TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE MAT
VALLEY...BUT AS THE UPPER TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER
COOK INLET AND THE KENAI PENINSULA ON SATURDAY EXPECT SNOW TO
REDEVELOP AND PUSH BACK WESTWARD. THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION ON SATURDAY WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE CHUGACH AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS... FROM EAST
ANCHORAGE/HILLSIDE TO EAGLE RIVER TO PALMER.

AS THE TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT
EXPECT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD TO EASTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW
IN EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND COMBINED WITH STRONG LIFT FROM THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE ONE INCH OR MORE OF
QPF. VALDEZ WILL INITIALLY BE RIGHT ON THE LINE BETWEEN RAIN AND
SNOW...WHICH WILL PRODUCE LOWER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THERE AS THE
HEAVIER PRECIP FIRST MOVES IN. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE
TO ALL SNOW BEFORE BY SATURDAY EVENING SO STILL EXPECT A DECENT
ACCUMULATION. AS YOU HEAD UP INTO THE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
THOMPSON PASS...PRECIP WILL STAY ALL SNOW SO EXPECT ON THE ORDER
OF 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS COLD AIR ADVECTION PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA AND THE GULF STRONG GAP WINDS WILL KICK IN. WITH STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THIS IS PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS IN WHITTIER/PASSAGE CANAL INTO WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...SO WILL TREND STRONGER WITH THESE WINDS IN THE NEW
FORECAST.

AS THE TROUGH EXITS SUNDAY CLEAR AND VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL
SETTLE IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN WILL BE VERY
DRY...SO DO NOT THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH OF A PROBLEM...THOUGH YOU
CAN NEVER COMPLETELY RULE OUT LOCALIZED FOG IN THE COOK INLET
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA...
AS SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH THE LACK OF MIXING WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP EVEN FURTHER TONIGHT. THIS IS AIDED BY THE
CLEAR SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THESE DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN FLOW STARTS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY BRINING A SLIGHT BUT MINIMAL RELIEF TO THE COLD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...
COLD EASTERLY FLOW IS BRINGING SNOW SHOWERS TO AREAS AROUND THE
BERING AND ALEUTIANS BUT THAT WILL CHANGE AS A FRONT APPROACHES
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND BRING SOME WARMER SOUTHERLY AIR WITH
IT. THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RAIN AND SNOW MIX BACK TO
THE ALEUTIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE STATE LIFTS NORTH BY MONDAY WITH
THE UPPER PATTERN FLATTENING OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN BRINGS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON
AS A COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG ALONG THE GULF. A DRIER PATTERN
ENSUES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTY
OFFSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COASTS. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN
ALOFT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A
CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER
AIR MASS SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE
ALEUTIANS AS THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. THE LOW
ADVECTS THE COLDER AIR THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF
THE SYSTEM WHILE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF FOR
MUCH OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 101 111 121 141 145.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 130 131 150 155 172.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 138 160 165 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...KH