Blizzard Watch 1, NWS Anchorage, AK

023 
WWAK42 PAFC 251217
WSWALU

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

AKZ195-251330-
/O.CAN.PAFC.BZ.A.0001.150126T1500Z-150127T1500Z/
PRIBILOF ISLANDS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SAINT PAUL
317 AM AKST SUN JAN 25 2015

...BLIZZARD WATCH IS CANCELLED THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH. 

A FRONT WILL APPROACH THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS AS IF THE AREA WILL SEE LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL AS SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IS NO LONGER LIKELY.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
517 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE WHERE DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
EASTWARD OVER COOK INLET. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
STREAMS FROM THE GULF THROUGH THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.  DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS QUICKLY MOVING TO THE EAST AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN FROM
THE WEST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN THE FULL ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS FOR THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS RANGING FROM SNOW AMOUNTS OF EPIC PROPORTIONS TO VERY
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE RECENT TREND HAS BEEN WHISKING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE TO THE EAST DESPITE MOST OF THE COOK INLET AREA
REMAINING UNDER FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH STILL
TO THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE REMAINDER OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CONSENSUS SAYS A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MIGRATE FROM THE NORTH TO
THE GULF AND JOIN WITH THE EXISTING TROUGH...MAINLY AFFECTING THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA AS WELL AS COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
THE THREAT FOR SNOW TODAY WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE
CHUGACH/TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES SOME MOISTURE
INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD STEADY OR FALL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE. MOST OF THE ACTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AS WELL AS THE
COPPER BASIN WHICH WILL GET BOTH THE INCOMING DISTURBANCE AND THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVERHEAD. SUNDAY TRANSITIONS INTO A COLD OUTFLOW
PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHCENTRAL WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON IN MOST AREAS AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
CLEAR SKIES THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
OF THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT LOWS OF THE SEASON TO OCCUR OVER THE NEXT
TWO NIGHTS. SOME GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG
THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST INTO THE WESTERN CAPES...CREATING VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT NOT QUITE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS COLD TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG
THE COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE BEGINNING TO
WARM ON SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN ALEUTIAN FRONT APPROACHES THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAY 1 AND DAY 2)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THROUGH THE CENTRAL BERING
WILL BRING SNOW SHOWERS FROM THE PRIBILOFS INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TODAY...WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY
THIS EVENING...BRINGING RAIN/SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS THAT WILL
SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS FOR SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING...AND CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH
EASTWARD (OVER SOUTHCENTRAL MAINLAND) THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AS IT INTERACTS WITH A COMPLEX LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. MULTIPLE
WAVES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL TRACK THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND GULF COAST THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION AND LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS TO THE AREA. OVER THE BERING...A SPLIT PATTERN ALOFT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST WITH A RIDGE OVER THE BERING STRAIT AND A CLOSED LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS. THE UPPER RIDGE DRIVES A COLDER AIR MASS
SOUTH ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BERING WILL MIX WITH WITH RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIANS AS
THESE TO SYSTEMS INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER. AS THE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC TRACKS EASTWARD...COLDER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN
TO FILTER DOWN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW AND OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS DURING THIS TIME...AS THE COLDER AIR MOVING OVER THE
WARMER SEA SURFACE CAN PRODUCE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. THIS COLDER AIR
AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL TRACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ALEUTIANS BY THE END OF THE WEEK...JUST IN TIME FOR ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY 111 141.
MARINE...GALES 130 131 150
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 121 129 130 131 138 150 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MTL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1039 AM AKST SAT JAN 24 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 AM     SNOW             STERLING                60.52N 150.80W
01/23/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

0500 AM     SNOW             BIG LAKE                61.52N 149.95W
01/24/2015  M8.2 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            8.25 INCHES STORM TOTAL MEASURED NEAR BIG LAKE ROAD AND
            BIG LAKE LODGE ROAD.

0700 AM     SNOW             7 S TALKEETNA           62.24N 150.09W
01/24/2015  M17.0 INCH                          AK   COCORAHS

            LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW CONTINUED UNABATED FROM THURSDAY
            EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVY SNOW
            DEVELOPING FRI EVENING AND LASTING FOR ABOUT AN HOUR.

0830 AM     SNOW             BIRCHWOOD               61.41N 149.48W
01/24/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            4 INCHES SNOW REPORTED AT BIRCHWOOD AIRPORT.

0830 AM     SNOW             3 SE WILLOW             61.71N 149.99W
01/24/2015  M9.2 INCH                           AK   COCORAHS

0835 AM     SNOW             3 NW FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN  61.12N 149.74W
01/24/2015  M4.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4 INCHES REPORTED AT ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE.

0835 AM     SNOW             3 S ANCHORAGE           61.17N 149.86W
01/24/2015  M4.3 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            4.3 INCHES STORM TOTAL REPORTED AT SEWARD HIGHWAY NEAR
            CAMPBELL CREEK.

0835 AM     SNOW             3 E ANCHORAGE           61.22N 149.78W
01/24/2015  M5.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            5 INCHES REPORTED AT 4TH AVENUE AND BONIFACE.

0900 AM     SNOW             EAGLE RIVER             61.32N 149.57W
01/24/2015  M6.5 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

1034 AM     SNOW             5 SW ANCHORAGE          61.16N 149.98W
01/24/2015  M4.8 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            4.8 INCHES STORM TOTAL MEASURED AT NWS ANCHORAGE OFFICE
            ON SAND LAKE.

&&

RDUELL