Small Craft Advisory 652, NWS Anchorage, AK

517 
FZAK51 PAFC 202313
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211230-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CITY EARLY FRI MORNING
MOVES TO 200 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 994 MB FRI
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 150 NM WEST OF SITKA AT 993 MB SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-211230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 20 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211230-
PORT VALDEZ-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211230-
VALDEZ ARM-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...WEST WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTS TO 35 KT DEVELOPING AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. N OF DANGEROUS CAPE...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING
TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211230-
CHINIAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211230-
MARMOT BAY-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
313 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

639 
FZAK51 PAFC 211137
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220030-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1008 MB LOW 170 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 987 MB EARLY SAT MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 120 NM
SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AT 996 MB EARLY SUN.


$$

PKZ119-220030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT LATE IN THE EVENING. SEAS
5 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF WESTERN BAYS AND PASSES IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220030-
PORT VALDEZ-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220030-
VALDEZ ARM-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 40 KT NEAR WHITTIER IN THE MORNING. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT EXCEPT 25 KT NORTH OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220030-
CHINIAK BAY-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-220030-
MARMOT BAY-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
337 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE OUTER
BAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT EXCEPT 5 FT NEAR THE OUTER BAY.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT WED AUG 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING THROUGH
UPPER COOK INLET...SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ANCHORAGE AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AT MIDDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE
SHOWED A DECREASE IN LAPSE RATES (MORE STABLE) COMPARED TO LAST
EVENING...WHEN UNUSUALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AROUND THE
REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY ARE CONFINED MORE TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AREA...AND AS A RESULT IS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND IS
COMBINING WITH VERY STABLE MARINE AIR MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
BERING SEA TO PRODUCE A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY TODAY IN MOST PLACES.

WAY OUT WEST...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW. A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER
ITSELF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA
DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...BUT THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT PRIMARILY ON WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS
BEEN EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS A GOOD BALANCE OF CONTINUITY AND
MODEL TRENDS...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY THAT DIRECTION WITH THE
FORECAST. LATER...AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF ON
FRIDAY...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER BEING TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE LOW CENTER. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD A GFS/EC TRACK THAT BRINGS
PRECIP TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT NOT INLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SUNNIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S
BOTH DAYS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY...BUT ON FRIDAY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF. THIS MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS THAT
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A HEAVILY MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT FOR
MANY INLAND AREAS THE RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA SEEM TO HAVE MISSED OUT ON THE
ACTION WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT JUST NORTH TOWARD THE
MAT-SU VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OF RIDGE BRINGS DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
COME MIDNIGHT...MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH MAY TAKE JUST A
LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
AFTER THE DECENT RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR
ARE PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE HYDROLAPSES (HUMIDITY CHANGES WITH
HEIGHT) WHICH WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG...BUT AREAS ALONG
BODIES OF WATER AND WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN RECENTLY MIGHT
SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CERTAINTY OF
ANY DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS...THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA AND WHITTIER WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE
INITIAL PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC WINDS) WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AND THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED GAPS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY OFFSHORE AND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SHOULD STAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT. A TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES REGION WIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART AS IT
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERY
ACTIVITY AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SAT THROUGH WED)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO "HUNT AND PECK" IN TRYING TO FIND THE ANSWERS IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. LETS START WITH WHERE THIS IS SOME MORE
CERTAINTY...THE WEEKEND. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF
WILL STAY PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE...RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC/EASTERN BERING. THIS COULD KEEP SOME FAIRLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS WHITTIER AND KAMISHAK
GAP. BUT THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A FEW
WEAK WAVES COMING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ON HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SHOULD START
TO RELAX SLOWLY ON SUNDAY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WHICH KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT A MODERATE
LEVEL. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHERN ENERGY
STREAM WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MAINLAND MON INTO
TUE. THE GFS SWEEPS THE SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WHILE THE EC MOVES THEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ALASKA RANGE.
EVEN THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND WILL SEE A BROAD WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUE AS FLOW
SWITCHES TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
ATSANI CREEP NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPEN AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODELS VARY WILDLY ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MO