Gale Warning 494, NWS Anchorage, AK

099 
FZAK61 PAFC 202310
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211330-
310 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 55N 150W EARLY FRI MORNING MOVES TO 57N 147W
AT 994 MB FRI AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES TO 57N 140W AT 993 MB SAT
MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-211330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-211330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT. RAIN DEVELOPING IN THE EVENING.
.FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING WW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

922 
FZAK61 PAFC 211138
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
338 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220145-
338 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 55N 150W MOVES TO 58N 143W AT 987 MB EARLY SAT
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 58N 139W AT 996 MB EARLY SUN.


$$

PKZ351-220145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
338 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
338 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

298 
FZAK61 PAFC 211826 AAA
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1026 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

UPDATED 351 352

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220315-
1026 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 55N 150W MOVES TO 58N 143W AT 987 MB EARLY SAT
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 58N 139W AT 996 MB EARLY SUN.


$$

PKZ351-220315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
1026 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 5 TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND ISOLATED
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
1026 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND
ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

567 
FZAK61 PAFC 212315
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
315 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221315-
315 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 996 MB LOW NEAR 56N 147W WILL TRACK TO 57N 141W AT 993 MB SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN TO 58N 139W AT 1002 MB SUN MORNING. 

$$

PKZ351-221315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
315 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 TO
14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SAT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-221315-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
315 PM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 8
TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

329 
FZAK61 PAFC 221144
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230130-
344 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 998 MB LOW NEAR 57N 143W MOVES TO 58N 140W AT 996 MB EARLY SUN...THEN
REMAINS STATIONARY AND WEAKENS TO 1010 MB EARLY MON.

$$

PKZ351-230130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
344 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-230130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
344 AM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.

$$

745 
FZAK61 PAFC 222306
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
306 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231330-
306 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 141W WILL MOVE TO 59N 139W AT 1003 MB 
SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. A 1000 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 
NEAR 59N 144W SUN MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 53N 137W AT 1009 MB
MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-231330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
306 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-231330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
306 PM AKDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

341 
FZAK61 PAFC 231114
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240115-
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 996 MB LOW NEAR 58N 139W MOVES TO 57N 141W AT 1008 MB EARLY
MON MORNING THEN DISSIPATES. AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE GULF THROUGH MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-240115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ352-240115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
314 AM AKDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
433 PM AKDT WED AUG 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR MOVING THROUGH
UPPER COOK INLET...SUPPORTING A FEW SHOWERS AROUND ANCHORAGE AND
THE MAT-SU VALLEYS AT MIDDAY. THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM ANCHORAGE
SHOWED A DECREASE IN LAPSE RATES (MORE STABLE) COMPARED TO LAST
EVENING...WHEN UNUSUALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AROUND THE
REGION. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS TODAY ARE CONFINED MORE TO
THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AREA...AND AS A RESULT IS THE MOST LIKELY
LOCATION TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND IS
COMBINING WITH VERY STABLE MARINE AIR MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE
BERING SEA TO PRODUCE A COOL AND CLOUDY DAY TODAY IN MOST PLACES.

WAY OUT WEST...A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST
BERING IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1006 MB SURFACE
LOW. A SMALL AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS WRAPS AROUND THE LOW CENTER
ITSELF AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH IN THE BERING SEA
DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW AND MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL WEAKEN
AND DISSIPATE SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS...BUT THE EXACT
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT PRIMARILY ON WIND
DIRECTIONS IN THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS. THE OVERALL MODEL TREND HAS
BEEN EASTWARD...WITH THE GFS A GOOD BALANCE OF CONTINUITY AND
MODEL TRENDS...SO WILL LEAN HEAVILY THAT DIRECTION WITH THE
FORECAST. LATER...AS A NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF ON
FRIDAY...THE NAM IS A BIT OF AN OUTLIER BEING TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE LOW CENTER. PREFER TO LEAN TOWARD A GFS/EC TRACK THAT BRINGS
PRECIP TO THE NORTH GULF COAST BUT NOT INLAND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SUNNIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL AREA
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 30S
BOTH DAYS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT ON THURSDAY...BUT ON FRIDAY GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SUSITNA VALLEY IN RESPONSE TO
THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE GULF. THIS MAY PRODUCE CONDITIONS THAT
APPROACH RED FLAG CRITERIA...AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

WEST OF THE ALASKA RANGE...A HEAVILY MARITIME-INFLUENCED AIRMASS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. THUS...EVEN WITH SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT FOR
MANY INLAND AREAS THE RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE SUSITNA VALLEY
ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
ANCHORAGE AND THE KENAI PENINSULA SEEM TO HAVE MISSED OUT ON THE
ACTION WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT JUST NORTH TOWARD THE
MAT-SU VALLEYS. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY
DISSIPATE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS QUICKLY PROPAGATES EASTWARD AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OF RIDGE BRINGS DRIER AIR BACK TO THE REGION.
COME MIDNIGHT...MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL SEE CLEAR SKIES WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WHICH MAY TAKE JUST A
LITTLE LONGER TO CLEAR OUT. ALTHOUGH SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
AFTER THE DECENT RAINFALL SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS USHERING IN DRIER AIR
ARE PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE HYDROLAPSES (HUMIDITY CHANGES WITH
HEIGHT) WHICH WILL PREVENT THE FORMATION OF FOG...BUT AREAS ALONG
BODIES OF WATER AND WHERE SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAIN RECENTLY MIGHT
SEE SOME VERY LOCALIZED PATCHY FOG. HAVE OPTED TO OMIT FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING WITH LOW COVERAGE AND LOW CERTAINTY OF
ANY DEVELOPMENT. THURSDAY SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL DAY AS SUNNY SKIES
WILL BE SEEN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING THROUGH VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS...THE
COPPER RIVER DELTA AND WHITTIER WHICH WILL BE THE RESULT FROM THE
INITIAL PRESSURE RISES (ISALLOBARIC WINDS) WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. THESE WIND ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE
AREA AND THE GRADIENT BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW
THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED GAPS. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE RISE
THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA...BUT IT LOOKS TO STAY OFFSHORE AND MUCH OF
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SHOULD STAY ON THE DRY SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD MARINE CLOUDS OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP TEMPERATURES
COOLER AND AFTERNOON INSTABILITY TO A MINIMUM. ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL MAINLY REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT. A TROUGH OVER THE BERING WILL MAKE EASTWARD
PROGRESS THURSDAY...WITH INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES REGION WIDE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. RAIN WILL IMPACT THE
PRIBILOF ISLANDS BEFORE THE FRONT WEAKENS AND FALLS APART AS IT
MOVES OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERY
ACTIVITY AND INCREASING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SAT THROUGH WED)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO "HUNT AND PECK" IN TRYING TO FIND THE ANSWERS IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. LETS START WITH WHERE THIS IS SOME MORE
CERTAINTY...THE WEEKEND. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF
WILL STAY PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE...RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC/EASTERN BERING. THIS COULD KEEP SOME FAIRLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS WHITTIER AND KAMISHAK
GAP. BUT THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A FEW
WEAK WAVES COMING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS ON HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SHOULD START
TO RELAX SLOWLY ON SUNDAY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WHICH KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT A MODERATE
LEVEL. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHERN ENERGY
STREAM WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MAINLAND MON INTO
TUE. THE GFS SWEEPS THE SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WHILE THE EC MOVES THEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ALASKA RANGE.
EVEN THOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF
THE MAINLAND WILL SEE A BROAD WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUE AS FLOW
SWITCHES TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
ATSANI CREEP NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPEN AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODELS VARY WILDLY ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...AD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...MC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...MO