Gale Warning 495, NWS Anchorage, AK

339 
FZAK62 PAFC 211128
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220130-
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 55N 152W MOVES INTO THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 49N 163E AT 1000 MB
EARLY SUN.

$$

PKZ411-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
328 AM AKDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
446 AM AKDT THU AUG 20 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
WEAK RIDGING OVER MAINLAND ALASKA HAS CLEARED OUT MUCH OF THE
CLOUD COVER AND HAS MADE WAY FOR FOG FORMATION ALONG COOK INLET.
THIS RIDING IS QUICKLY MOVING EAST AND BEHIND IT A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BERING IS DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS LOW IS
FOLLOWING A SIMILAR PATH. FURTHER OUT WEST OVER THE WESTERN
BERING ANOTHER RIDGE IS BUILDING IN.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES IN THE
SHORT AND MID TERMS. THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN AND
WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. THEY ALSO SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD GRASP ON
THE SURFACE LOW SPINNING UP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE RIDGING THAT IS BUILDING IN OVER THE BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY WILL BRING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR KENAI
PEN...ANCHORAGE BOWL...MATSU VALLEYS...AND COPPER RIVER BASIN.
THIS UPPER WAVE COMBINED WITH UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION WILL
LIKELY TRIGGER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TALKEETNA
MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. AN UPPER WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN ON FRI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS FRI. A LOW DEVELOPING ALONG A BROAD
FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTENSIFIES UNDER FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS (LEFT EXIT REGION) AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF FRI/FRI
NIGHT. EXPECT GALES WITH THIS SYSTEM. OUTFLOW CONDITIONS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST SHOULD DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON THEN WILL LIKELY
INTENSIFY SOME AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS STRENGTHEN FRI NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
TODAY INCREASE ON FRIDAY OUT OF THE NORTH AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
FROM THE BERING TO THE GULF. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST AND ALEUTIAN RANGE FRIDAY EVENING
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN BERING WILL BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE DIVES AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOP THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING SPREADING
EAST LATER TODAY AS THE STACKED LOW MOVES TO THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
LOW WITH GUSTY CONDITIONS AROUND THE CORE. THE PACE OF THE UPPER
LOW OUT RUNS THE SURFACE FEATURE THIS EVENING WHICH KEEPS GUSTY
WINDS IN THE SMALL CRAFT RANGE. IF THE UPPER LOW RUNS SLOWER THAN
CURRENTLY PROJECTED...WINDS COULD REACH GALE CRITERIA ACROSS THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A RIDGE MOVES INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT...RETURNING STABLE CONDITIONS AND
AREAS OF FOG TO THE SOUTHERN BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...SAT THROUGH WED)...MODELS
CONTINUE TO "HUNT AND PECK" IN TRYING TO FIND THE ANSWERS IN THIS
TIME PERIOD. LETS START WITH WHERE THIS IS SOME MORE
CERTAINTY...THE WEEKEND. WITH BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT...IT NOW
LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN THE GULF
WILL STAY PRIMARILY OFFSHORE. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TOWARD THE
PANHANDLE...RIDGING WILL START TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC/EASTERN BERING. THIS COULD KEEP SOME FAIRLY GUSTY
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH FAVORED AREAS SUCH AS WHITTIER AND KAMISHAK
GAP. BUT THAT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MAINLAND. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE A FEW
WEAK WAVES COMING ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE WHICH COULD TRIGGER SOME
AFTERNOON- EVENING SHOWERS ON HIGHER TERRAIN. WINDS SHOULD START
TO RELAX SLOWLY ON SUNDAY AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MODEL UNCERTAINTY WHICH KEEPS FORECAST CONFIDENCE AT A MODERATE
LEVEL. ALL MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE NORTHERN ENERGY
STREAM WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE MAINLAND MON INTO
TUE. THE GFS SWEEPS THE SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH IT THROUGH THE
INTERIOR WHILE THE EC MOVES THEM AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ALASKA RANGE.
EVEN THOSE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE MUCH OF THE
MAINLAND WILL SEE A BROAD WARM FRONT MOVE THROUGH TUE AS FLOW
SWITCHES TO SOUTHWESTERLY. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW
AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. REMNANTS OF TYPHOON
ATSANI CREEP NEAR THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND DEEPEN AS AN EXTRA-
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODELS VARY WILDLY ON STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT...BUT THE GENERAL IDEA IS THERE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE...351 352.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MO