Small Craft Advisory 166, NWS Anchorage, AK

678 
FZAK51 PAFC 230000
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231245-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 1013 MB LOW 40 NM SOUTH OF CAPE SUCKLING WILL MOVE INLAND ALONG
THE NORTH GULF COAST TONIGHT. A 1004 MB LOW WILL MOVE TO 290 NM
SOUTHEAST OF CHIGNIK TUE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF TUE MORNING AND REACH THE CENTRAL
GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-231245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT ALONG THE COAST IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-231245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-231245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-231245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-231245-
PORT VALDEZ-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-231245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-231245-
VALDEZ ARM-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-231245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-231245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-231245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-231245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-231245-
CHINIAK BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-231245-
MARMOT BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3
FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-231245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-231245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-231245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 1 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-231245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

987 
FZAK51 PAFC 231210
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-240100-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A 1003 MB LOW MOVES
TO 290 NM SOUTH OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF TUE MORNING AND
REACH THE CENTRAL GULF BY TUE AFTERNOON. THE LOW THEN MOVES TO 190
NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-240100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-240100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-240100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-240100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 15 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-240100-
PORT VALDEZ-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-240100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-240100-
VALDEZ ARM-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-240100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-240100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-240100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-240100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-240100-
CHINIAK BAY-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-240100-
MARMOT BAY-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-240100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-240100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT SUBSIDING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-240100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-240100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
310 AM AKST MON FEB 23 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT BY LATE MORNING.
SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT HAS SHIFTED TO THE BERING SEA
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. A DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMS IN FROM THE MID LATITUDES AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SITS IN PLACE. DESPITE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CHUGACH...MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING TO THE SURFACE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE ARE MITIGATING ANY DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT ANY ICE OR SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL STILL REMAIN
SLICK. THE ONLY AREA WITH A FREEZING RAIN THREAT REMAINING IS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE WARM AIR IS PUSHING OVERHEAD FROM THE
GULF WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST FEATURE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER
THE CHUGACH. THE EAST AND WEST DOMAINS PREFERRED THE 21/12Z
NAM/GEM IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL SEND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
AND SPREAD NORTH. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES ARE ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE POCKETS OF COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE ARE CAUSING RAIN TO FREEZE AT THE SURFACE. THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY FROM GLENNALLEN EAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER
LOW IN THE BERING PUSHES A COLD FRONT FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AREA...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING CONTINUES
TO FEED IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE AREA.
MOST LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND EVEN THE TYPICAL "COLD" SPOTS IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DELTA ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER NORTHWARD...HOWEVER
THE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN
MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRACKING IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. ONCE THE LOW OVER THE BERING TRACKS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING MOVES IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING...SOME COLDER AIR
(BY NO MEANS ARCTIC) WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
AND COOL OFF PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING
CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP WARM AIR INTO THE STATE. MEANWHILE...ON
THE BACKSIDE THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MIGRATE OFF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND FILTER INTO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF GUSTY
WINDS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL SWING OFF OF THIS
SYSTEM...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE (WEST TO EAST FLOW) THAN
IT HAS BEEN THE PAST WEEK...AND WILL HELP PUSH SOME OF THAT
COLDER AIR TOWARD THE MAINLAND BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START TO
TURN SOME OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR ALMOST NIL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...A COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR HOWEVER WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO HOLDING THE COLD AIR AT BAY...THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DRY CONDITIONS OUT AS THE TROUGHY WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST TO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING CLEAR OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN OUT IN THE MID TERM AND EXTENDED IS A
SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES AROUND
TUESDAY... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONE THURSDAY AND
A THIRD MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 130 131
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC