Gale Warning 186, NWS Anchorage, AK

677 
FZAK52 PAFC 230000
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-231230-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 987 MB COMPLEX LOW IN THE FAR NORTHERN BERING WILL SLOWLY 
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY LATE MON NIGHT. A 990 MB PACIFIC LOW 
WILL MOVE TO 290 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA TUE AFTERNOON WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING AND
ALEUTIANS TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-231230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-231230-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-231230-
BRISTOL BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO VARIABLE 10 KT BY AFTERNOON.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-231230-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-231230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ171-231230-
UNALASKA BAY-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NW 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-231230-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ173-231230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ174-231230-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ175-231230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-231230-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ177-231230-
ADAK TO KISKA-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-231230-
KISKA TO ATTU-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.TUE...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-231230-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-231230-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. FREEZING SPRAY 
IN THE MORNING.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ181-231230-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING W BY MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT.

$$

PKZ185-231230-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
300 PM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 
35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 35 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 
8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 14 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE MAIN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT HAS SHIFTED TO THE BERING SEA
IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SHORTWAVE AND FRONT. A DEEP MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STREAMS IN FROM THE MID LATITUDES AS THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE SITS IN PLACE. DESPITE STRONG
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN TURNAGAIN ARM AND THE UPPER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CHUGACH...MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING TO THE SURFACE AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS AND MOISTURE ARE MITIGATING ANY DOWNSLOPE DRYING FROM
CROSS-BARRIER FLOW. THE MAJORITY OF SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
SOUTHCENTRAL ARE ABOVE FREEZING SO WIDESPREAD ICING IS NOT
EXPECTED...BUT ANY ICE OR SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL STILL REMAIN
SLICK. THE ONLY AREA WITH A FREEZING RAIN THREAT REMAINING IS THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN WHERE WARM AIR IS PUSHING OVERHEAD FROM THE
GULF WHILE COLD AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE BIGGEST FEATURE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH IS THE AMOUNT OF DOWNSLOPE DRYING OVER
THE CHUGACH. THE EAST AND WEST DOMAINS PREFERRED THE 21/12Z
NAM/GEM IN THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING WILL SEND MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF THE WORK WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF
AND SPREAD NORTH. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES ARE ACROSS THE
COPPER RIVER VALLEY AND SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE POCKETS OF COLD AIR
AT THE SURFACE ARE CAUSING RAIN TO FREEZE AT THE SURFACE. THE
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY
MORNING FOR THE COPPER RIVER VALLEY FROM GLENNALLEN EAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY SUNDAY. RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH MONDAY AS A WEAK BOUNDARY REMAINS ALONG THE COAST.

THE NEXT CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT
PUSHES INTO THE WESTERN GULF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE UPPER
LOW IN THE BERING PUSHES A COLD FRONT FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SLOWLY
MOVES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND WET CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST AREA...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW OVER THE BERING CONTINUES
TO FEED IN WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC OVER THE AREA.
MOST LOCATIONS CONTINUE TO REPORT RAIN AS THE DOMINANT
PRECIPITATION TYPE...AND EVEN THE TYPICAL "COLD" SPOTS IN THE
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DELTA ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. PRECIPITATION WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE WAVE PUSHES FURTHER NORTHWARD...HOWEVER
THE SHOWERS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN
MOVES IN SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT WAVE TRACKING IN FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. GUSTY WINDS OVER THE MAINLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA
BEGINS TO SLACKEN. ONCE THE LOW OVER THE BERING TRACKS FURTHER
NORTHWEST AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE BERING MOVES IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND MONDAY MORNING...SOME COLDER AIR
(BY NO MEANS ARCTIC) WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
AND COOL OFF PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING
CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP WARM AIR INTO THE STATE. MEANWHILE...ON
THE BACKSIDE THIS SYSTEM...COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MIGRATE OFF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND FILTER INTO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA
TONIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP TO CREATE A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF GUSTY
WINDS DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED WAVES WILL SWING OFF OF THIS
SYSTEM...DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN BERING LATE
SUNDAY AND TRACKING TOWARD THE PRIBILOFS ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL
HELP KEEP THE PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE (WEST TO EAST FLOW) THAN
IT HAS BEEN THE PAST WEEK...AND WILL HELP PUSH SOME OF THAT
COLDER AIR TOWARD THE MAINLAND BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD START TO
TURN SOME OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR ALMOST NIL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...A COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR HOWEVER WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO HOLDING THE COLD AIR AT BAY...THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DRY CONDITIONS OUT AS THE TROUGHY WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST TO THE
FAR SOUTHWEST ALASKA MAINLAND ON WEDNESDAY BREAKING DOWN THE
RIDGE. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GULF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING CLEAR OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG IT WILL LAST.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN OUT IN THE MID TERM AND EXTENDED IS A
SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES AROUND
TUESDAY... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONE THURSDAY AND
A THIRD MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 130 131
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ML
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...TP
LONG TERM...CC