Gale Warning 185, NWS Anchorage, AK

177 
FZAK51 PAFC 221211
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-230045-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

THE GULF CONTINUES WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE A WEATHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-230045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT SE 30 KT NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 11 FT.
RAIN. PATCHY DENSE FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ120-230045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ121-230045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING S 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-230045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-230045-
PORT VALDEZ-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ127-230045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-230045-
VALDEZ ARM-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-230045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-230045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-230045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-230045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-230045-
CHINIAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-230045-
MARMOT BAY-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-230045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ139-230045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-230045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-230045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
311 AM AKST SUN FEB 22 2015

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT BY LATE MORNING. SEAS 
2 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
521 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL AMPLIFIED RIDGE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA
EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE YUKON TERRITORY AND THROUGH THE
BROOKS RANGE INTO THE BERING STRAIT. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD
AREA OF SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE FROM THE GULF
WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS COINCIDES WITH A STRONG
135 KNOT MERIDIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH JET STREAK OVER THE EASTERN
GULF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA REGION. THE ASCAT
SCATTEROMETER WIND IMAGERY HAS GALE FORCE WINDS ENTERING THE
BARREN ISLANDS AND ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF AREA THIS MORNING.
AT THE SURFACE THERE IS A GALE FORCE LOW NORTH OF COLD BAY WITH
REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED THROUGH THE ALEUTIAN
RANGE EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE. THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY IS SHOWING A LARGE COMMA SHIELD THROUGH THE GULF NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
NORTH OF COLD BAY. THE RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SPILLING INTO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AND THE REST OF NORTHERN COASTLINES BEFORE MOVING INLAND. THE
ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLEY IS STILL GETTING DOWNSLOPING
RESULTING IN DRIER CONDITION...BUT WILL SOON CHANGE WITH THE
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IMAGERY HAS THE
COOK INLET WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE SUSITNA
VALLEY. THIS SOUTHERLY PATTERN WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND
CONTINUED WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE
AREA. WHILE...OVER ON THE BERING SIDE THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THROUGH THE WESTERN BERING SEA EXTENDING THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION WITH STRATUS/FOG THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS ARE IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S...WHILE THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS HAVE NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT
CROSSED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THIS EARLY MORNING AND IS NOW
LOCATED NORTH OF COLD BAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND MODELS ARE SHOWING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN GULF INTO THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
AREA. THE NAM IS KEEPING THE ANCHORAGE BOWL DRIER...VERSUS THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM-REG ALL SHOWING THE PRECIPITATION MAKING INTO
ANCHORAGE BY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE GEM-REG/EC WERE THE PREFERRED
MODELS OF CHOICE AND THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A
SERIES OF MOIST WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL CROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA DURING
THIS PERIOD. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE IS PUSHING THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY BRINGING RAIN TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA. SOME
FREEZING RAIN AND/OR SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
WHERE FAIRLY DEEP COLD AIR IS STILL IN PLACE...BUT THIS SHOULD
SCOUR OUT BY SUNDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL CROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY)...THIS VERY UNUSUAL WARM PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH WAVE
AFTER WAVE THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC AND PLENTY OF WARM AIR. JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS HAVE
SWITCHED OVER TO RAIN THIS MORNING. EVEN THE TYPICAL "COLD" SPOTS
IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE DELTA ARE
ABOVE FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. SO WHILE SOME SNOW IS FALLING IN
THOSE FEW SPOTS...IT IS LIKELY A WET SLUSHY ACCUMULATION AT BEST.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE SHOWERY OVERNIGHT. BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY RAIN MOVES IN SUNDAY
MORNING. AS FOR THE WINDS...THE STRONGEST FRONT IS LIFTING FROM
KING SALMON TOWARD KOLIGANEK THIS MORNING. SO WINDS LIKELY ALREADY
PEAKED WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD SLOWLY TREND DOWNWARD
TODAY. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE STRONG WIND HEADLINE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

WARM AIR FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HAS MADE FOR WIDESPREAD ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THEN FACTORING IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WINDS OFF
THE TERRAIN FOR PLACES LIKE KING SALMON AND BETHEL TEMPERATURES
CAN RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES. THE NORMAL HIGH THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR
KING SALMON IS 28 AND ON FRIDAY THEY REACHED 45. EXPECTING THEM TO
CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 40S TODAY. THE GOOD NEWS FOR THOSE HOPING FOR
A RETURN TO WINTER IS THAT SOME COLD AIR IS SPILLING DOWN INTO THE
BERING ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX. MODELS SHOW
THIS COLDER AIR (BY NO MEANS ARCTIC) KNOCKING ON THE DOOR STEP OF
THE WEST COAST LATE SUN-EARLY MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY)...THE BERING IS BECOMING THE BAROCLINIC BATTLE
GROUND. A MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE COMPLEX OVER THE EXTREME EASTERN
PORTION CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP WARM AIR INTO THE STATE.
MEANWHILE...ON THE BACKSIDE...THIS SYSTEM IS SO BROAD THAT IT IS
STARTING TO TAP SOME OF THE COLDER AIR OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. SO WHILE 850 MB TEMPS ARE 1-2 CELSIUS ABOVE FREEZING
IN THE EAST...THEY ARE -12 TO -14 CELSIUS NORTH OF SHEMYA. ALL
THIS IS HELPING TO CREATE A FAIRLY WIDE SWATH OF GALE FORCE WINDS
DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. BY SUNDAY...A ROBUST UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER SIBERIA WILL START TO SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD
THE WESTERN BERING. THIS WILL SWING A GALE-FORCE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE OFFSHORE ZONES LATE SUNDAY AND TOWARDS THE PRIBILOFS
ON MONDAY. THIS LOW WILL HELP TO KEEP THE PATTERN MORE PROGRESSIVE
(WEST TO EAST) THAN IT HAS BEEN THE PAST WEEK AND WILL PUSH SOME
OF THAT COLDER AIR TOWARD THE MAINLAND. THIS SHOULD START TO TURN
SOME OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS FROM RAIN TO SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS. BUT LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MAKE FOR ALMOST NIL
ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...A COLD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL REACH THE WEST COAST OF ALASKA MONDAY. THE BULK OF
THE COLD AIR HOWEVER WILL BE HELD MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY A STRONG RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING FROM THE GULF
OF ALASKA INTO SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. IN ADDITION TO HOLDING THE COLD AIR AT BAY...THE
RIDGE WILL ALSO DRY CONDITIONS OUT AS THE TROUGHY WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS TEMPORARILY CUT OFF.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY THEN LIFT NORTH AND EAST TO
MAINLAND ALASKA ON WEDNESDAY BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE. THE LOW WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE GULF WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BEFORE SWINGING CLEAR OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL RETURN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
THOUGH THERE IS A GOOD BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW LONG IT
WILL LAST.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONCERN OUT IN THE MID TERM AND EXTENDED IS A
SERIES OF INCREASINGLY STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS SWEEPING THROUGH THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH THE WEEK. THE FIRST ARRIVES AROUND
TUESDAY... FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SOMEWHAT STRONGER ONE THURSDAY AND
A THIRD MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM AROUND SATURDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 119 120 125 130 139 173 174 175 176 412 413.
         STORM 131.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...PD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...JER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1048 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

AKZ101-111-121-125-141-145-220800-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-COPPER RIVER BASIN-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING...WHITTIER...SEWARD...
GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS...GLENNALLEN...EUREKA...MCCARTHY...PAXSON...
SLANA...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
1048 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...SLICK ROADS AND WALKWAYS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...

WHILE AIR TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY ABOVE FREEZING...RAIN
FALLING ON SNOW AND ICE COVERED ROADS WILL MAKE FOR SLICK DRIVING
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON LESS TRAVELED SIDE ROADS.

CAUTION IS ADVISED WHEN TRAVELING THIS WEEKEND.

FOR THE LATEST WEATHER FORECAST IN YOUR AREA PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ANCHORAGE

FOR THE LATEST ROAD CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA PLEASE VISIT
WWW.511.ALASKA.GOV

AKZ131-220800-
NORTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...VALDEZ...THOMPSON PASS
1048 AM AKST SAT FEB 21 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE MINOR FLOODING CONCERNS THIS
WEEKEND...

A WEATHER SYSTEM WITH TROPICAL ORIGINS WILL MOVE OVER PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND THIS WEEKEND. IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OF RAIN ARE LIKELY. ELEVATED FREEZING LEVELS UP TO 3000 FT
OR HIGHER ALONG WITH THE EXISTING SNOW PACK COULD PRODUCE RAPID
SNOW MELT...CREATING A RISE IN SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS AS WELL
AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. IN ADDITION...RAIN INITIALLY
FALLING ON FROZEN ROADS COULD LEAD TO HAZARDOUS DRIVING
CONDITIONS.

DEK/CC/MTL