High Wind Watch 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
WWAK72 PAFC 170114
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
414 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

AKZ191-171500-
/O.UPG.PAFC.HW.A.0006.151218T0000Z-151219T0900Z/
/O.NEW.PAFC.HW.W.0012.151218T0900Z-151219T0000Z/
WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
414 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO
3 PM AKST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT TO 3 PM
AKST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WIND...WEST 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE RAPIDLY THURSDAY
  AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
  THURSDAY NIGHT...REACHING A PEAK IN INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY
  NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW WARNING
  LEVELS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG AND
  GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE OBJECTS AND DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

AKZ187-171500-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.A.0006.151218T0900Z-151219T1500Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
414 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WIND...SOUTHWEST TO WEST 45 TO 60 MPH WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS TO 80
  MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND
  REACH A PEAK INTENSITY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH
  FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE OBJECTS AND DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WATCH MEANS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HAZARDOUS
HIGH WIND EVENT. PEOPLE ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS
WEATHER SITUATION. PREPARATION FOR THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WEATHER EVENT SHOULD BEGIN NOW.

&&

$$

296 
WWAK72 PAFC 171334
NPWALU

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
434 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

AKZ187-171445-
/O.CAN.PAFC.HW.A.0006.151218T0900Z-151219T1500Z/
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...ATKA AND ADAK
434 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...HIGH WIND WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ANCHORAGE HAS CANCELLED THE HIGH
WIND WATCH. 

WHILE STRONG WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...A SHIFT OF THE
FORECAST LOW TRACK A BIT FURTHER NORTH SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD LEVEL OF 75 MPH.

$$

AKZ191-180245-
/O.CON.PAFC.HW.W.0012.151218T0900Z-151219T0000Z/
WESTERN ALEUTIANS-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...SHEMYA AND AMCHITKA
434 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
3 PM AKST FRIDAY...

* WIND...WEST 50 TO 65 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 85 MPH.

* TIMING...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST THIS
  MORNING AND THEN RAPIDLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS
  WILL SHIFT WEST THIS EVENING AND REACH A PEAK IN INTENSITY LATE
  TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
  WARNING LEVELS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG
  AND GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...HIGH WINDS MAY MOVE LOOSE OBJECTS AND DAMAGE 
  PROPERTY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. PEOPLE ARE URGED TO SECURE LOOSE OBJECTS THAT COULD
BE BLOWN AROUND OR DAMAGED BY THE WIND.

&&

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW DEPARTING THE NORTHER BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW AND
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. UNDER
THIS SHORTWAVE...A SMALL MESOSCALE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN COOK
INLET CAN BE SEEN ON THE KENAI RADAR BRINGING SNOW TO MANY AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS LOW IS ALSO BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO
TURNAGAIN ARM AS IT INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH HOWEVER
AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER SUSITNA
VALLEY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GULF CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING
WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES UNDER A 100 KT JET STREAK. OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT THERE
REMAINS A SMALL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW
POSITION/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD HOWEVER HAVE FAIRLY SMALL IMPACTS TO OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE
SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE BARREN ISLANDS THAT WERE INCREASED TO
STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THIS EVENT WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THIS
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING. WITH THIS GOOD AGREEMENT THERE IS NOW GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE THAT HAS TRACKED TO THE
NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH AN ACCOMPANIED TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THROUGH HATCHER PASS THIS
EVENING. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (OR
LESS) TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN THE GULF AND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE NORTHERN GULF...THE
BARREN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF STRAIT TO
RECEIVE STORM FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW REMAINS IN THE BERING
STRAIT REGION AND CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA TO THE BERING SEA COAST. A LOW THAT FORMED SOUTH OF THIS LOW
IN BRISTOL BAY IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
THIS LOW IS PUSHING SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM
WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST AND NORTH WIND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY SEE STORM
FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OUT OF WIDE BAY AND
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WHILE THE LOW SPINS UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ANOTHER STRONG STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT STORM FORCE WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BRING TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING A STRONG STORM-
FORCE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS WITHIN THE STING JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...POTENTIALLY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA IN THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT
FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY
ALL HAVE THE FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING APART AT THE SURFACE...WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT ALOFT MOVING INLAND. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL
BE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST FACING
SLOPES. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAIRLY QUICK MOVER. A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO
COMMENCE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH
MOISTURE UP THE INLET AND ALLOW FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT (MORE THAN THE DUSTING TO 2 INCH TYPE EVENTS EXPERIENCED IN
ANCHORAGE) IN A FEW WEEKS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE SET OF MODEL RUNS.

LOOKING AHEAD EVEN FURTHER...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
A SIGNIFICANT COLD AND DRY PERIOD WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF CHRISTMAS WEEK AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139.
 GALE WARNING 121 132 136 137 141 150 155 172 174 177 178.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...CC