Gale Warning 843, NWS Anchorage, AK

317 
FZAK62 PAFC 170007
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-171415-
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 MB LOW NEAR 51N 163E MOVES TO 57N 178E AT 943 MB FRI
MORNING THEN SLOWLY WEAKENS THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 TO 45 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.THU...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 29 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 33 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 TO 29 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ413-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S TOWARDS MORNING. SEAS 7
TO 12 FT. SNOW.
.THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 25 TO 37 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 TO 60 KT. SEAS 29 TO 40 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 31 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-171415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
307 PM AKST WED DEC 16 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY AFTER MIDNIGHT W OF 168W.
.THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 17 TO 32 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

659 
FZAK62 PAFC 171247
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-180300-
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 967 MB LOW NEAR 55N 149W EXITS THE AREA TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY. A
973 MB LOW NEAR 54N 164E MOVES TO 58N 174E AT 943 MB FRI MORNING...THEN
MOVES TO 58N 174W AT 958 MB SAT MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES TO THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND FRI
MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ412-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT INCREASING TO 40 TO 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 10 TO 18 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 TO 28 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 29 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 24 TO 36 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 45 TO 55 KT. SEAS 33 TO 40 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 19 TO 34 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-180300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
347 AM AKST THU DEC 17 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 18 TO 33 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 20 TO 35 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKST TUE DEC 15 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE STATE REMAINS VERY
PROGRESSIVE AND ACTIVE. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH
A LOW DEPARTING THE NORTHER BERING SEA CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW AND
RAIN TO MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND EAST OF THE ALASKA RANGE. UNDER
THIS SHORTWAVE...A SMALL MESOSCALE LOW THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN COOK
INLET CAN BE SEEN ON THE KENAI RADAR BRINGING SNOW TO MANY AREAS
OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS LOW IS ALSO BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO
TURNAGAIN ARM AS IT INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS. THESE WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH HOWEVER
AS THE LOW MAKES LANDFALL AND WEAKENS OVER THE LOWER SUSITNA
VALLEY. THE NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE GULF CAN BE SEEN DEVELOPING
WELL SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...BUT IS RAPIDLY MOVING
NORTHWARD AS IT INTENSIFIES UNDER A 100 KT JET STREAK. OVER THE
WESTERN BERING...BROAD NORTHERLY FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION IS
READILY APPARENT FROM AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
THESE SHOWERS ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST HOWEVER AS
WEAK RIDGING FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GENERALLY GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT BUT THERE
REMAINS A SMALL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOW
POSITION/INTENSITY OF THE DEVELOPING GULF LOW FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS
SHOULD HOWEVER HAVE FAIRLY SMALL IMPACTS TO OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE FOR THE GULF COAST...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS LIKE
SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE BARREN ISLANDS THAT WERE INCREASED TO
STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THIS EVENT WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THIS
GENERAL GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES INTO LATE THIS WEEK AND EVEN INTO
THIS WEEKEND AS THERE IS SURPRISINGLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
TRACK/INTENSITY OF ANOTHER RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW MOVING INTO THE
BERING. WITH THIS GOOD AGREEMENT THERE IS NOW GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT
YET ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BUT THEN
REMAIN MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN AS THE LOW MOVES INTO
THE NORTHERN BERING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THERE IS A WEAK LOW AT THE SURFACE THAT HAS TRACKED TO THE
NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY WITH AN ACCOMPANIED TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWARD AND DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG
THE NORTHERN MATANUSKA VALLEY AND THROUGH HATCHER PASS THIS
EVENING. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL HAVE SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS (OR
LESS) TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY BRIEFLY THIS EVENING BEFORE
DIMINISHING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM IN THE GULF AND COASTAL
COMMUNITIES AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKS JUST SOUTH OF KODIAK
ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LOOK FOR THE NORTHERN GULF...THE
BARREN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHERN COOK INLET AND SHELIKOF STRAIT TO
RECEIVE STORM FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF THE LARGE BERING SEA LOW REMAINS IN THE BERING
STRAIT REGION AND CONTINUES TO CIRCULATE SHOWERS ACROSS THE BERING
SEA TO THE BERING SEA COAST. A LOW THAT FORMED SOUTH OF THIS LOW
IN BRISTOL BAY IS MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR.
THIS LOW IS PUSHING SNOW ACROSS THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WITH
SHOWERY WEATHER FOLLOWING BEHIND THIS LOW IN THE BRISTOL BAY
REGION. A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND KODIAK ISLAND. THIS LOW
WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES TO SOUTH OF
KODIAK ISLAND WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THIS STORM
WILL BE STRONG NORTHEAST AND NORTH WIND ACROSS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. THE EASTERN ALASKA PENINSULA WILL LIKELY SEE STORM
FORCE GUSTS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ESPECIALLY OUT OF WIDE BAY AND
CHANNELED TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WHILE THE LOW SPINS UP SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND ANOTHER STRONG STORM
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY
EVENING. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WE EXPECT STORM FORCE WIND IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BRING TEMPERATURES
UP ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS MOVING A STRONG STORM-
FORCE LOW INTO THE WESTERN BERING THURSDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HURRICANE-FORCE GUSTS WITHIN THE STING JET ON THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE LOW...POTENTIALLY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF SHEMYA IN THE
SOUTHWEST BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EC IS A LITTLE BIT
FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS BUT FROM AN IMPACTS STANDPOINT THEY
ALL HAVE THE FRONT FROM THIS SYSTEM MAKING IT TO THE WEST COAST
FRIDAY BEFORE FALLING APART AT THE SURFACE...WITH A WEAKENING
FRONT ALOFT MOVING INLAND. THE PRIMARY IMPACT FROM THIS STORM WILL
BE WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE BERING
SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FOR SOUTHCENTRAL...THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW FOR SOUTHCENTRAL
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST FACING
SLOPES. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT SINCE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE A
FAIRLY QUICK MOVER. A TRIPLE POINT LOW FORMS ALONG THIS FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND MOVES QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TO
COMMENCE FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. BY LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AN APPROACHING SYSTEM FROM THE WEST MAY PUSH
MOISTURE UP THE INLET AND ALLOW FOR THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW
EVENT (MORE THAN THE DUSTING TO 2 INCH TYPE EVENTS EXPERIENCED IN
ANCHORAGE) IN A FEW WEEKS. CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW AT THIS TIME
BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE SET OF MODEL RUNS.

LOOKING AHEAD EVEN FURTHER...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
A SIGNIFICANT COLD AND DRY PERIOD WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF CHRISTMAS WEEK AND
PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST CHRISTMAS WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 119 120 130 131 138 139.
 GALE WARNING 121 132 136 137 141 150 155 172 174 177 178.
 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SA
LONG TERM...CC