Gale Warning 915, NWS Anchorage, AK

304 
FZAK52 PAFC 210039
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-211400-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 120 NM NORTHWEST OF ADAK MOVES TO 380 NM NORTHWEST OF
ADAK AT 970 MB MON MORNING AND THEN MOVES TO 200 NM NORTH OF
AMCHITKA AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO WESTERN ALASKA PENINSULA BY MON
AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT 70 NM SOUTHEAST OF
CHIGNIK AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-211400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ155-211400-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM THE
SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT
BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ160-211400-
BRISTOL BAY-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS IN
ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE FREE
WATERS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ165-211400-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ170-211400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 30 FT.

$$

PKZ171-211400-
UNALASKA BAY-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-211400-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 22 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ173-211400-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 50 KT LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 22 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 34 FT.

$$

PKZ174-211400-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 KT BECOMING W LATE EVENING. SEAS BUILDING
TO 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT.

$$

PKZ175-211400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 50 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 20 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT.

$$

PKZ176-211400-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 45 KT BY LATE EVENING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT LATE MORNING. SEAS 18 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ177-211400-
ADAK TO KISKA-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS TO
65KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 22 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.THU...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ178-211400-
KISKA TO ATTU-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-211400-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 25 KT IN THE
EVENING. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ180-211400-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT
SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ181-211400-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ185-211400-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
339 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...E 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

234 
FZAK52 PAFC 211228
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220145-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 974 MB LOW 300 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 190 NM WEST OF SHEMYA AT
979 MB TUE MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 130 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA AT
988 MB WED MORNING. A 980 MB LOW DEVELOPS 70 NM SOUTHWEST OF
SITKINAK MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
TUE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 220 NM SOUTH OF AMCHITKA WED
MORNING AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ150-220145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 18
FT. RAIN.
.TUE...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ155-220145-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W WIND 45 KT IN THE MORNING. FROM
THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...S WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 55 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 18 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN
AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...W WIND 45
KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ160-220145-
BRISTOL BAY-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS IN ICE
FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT S OF 58N.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ165-220145-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. WIND BECOMING W 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON W
OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 11 FT BUILDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 K DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.

$$

PKZ170-220145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 30 FT.

$$

PKZ171-220145-
UNALASKA BAY-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
GUSTS TO 45 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ172-220145-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ173-220145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 34 FT.

$$

PKZ174-220145-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.THU...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT.

$$

PKZ175-220145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 32 FT.

$$

PKZ176-220145-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.THU...W WIND 45 KT. SEAS 26 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ177-220145-
ADAK TO KISKA-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 31 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ178-220145-
KISKA TO ATTU-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 28 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ179-220145-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ180-220145-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT W 30 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS
12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT W 25 KT S OF CAPE NEWENHAM. SEAS 12
FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ181-220145-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ185-220145-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NE 40 KT W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... NE 35 KT W
OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN OVER THE STATE IS A VERY ACTIVE ONE TODAY AS A STRONG
JET STREAM RUNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF
ALASKA. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
CENTER OVER KAMCHATKA THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA...COMBINED WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE JET...SETS UP THE AREA FOR THE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IN THE GULF IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND IS CAUSING THE SNOWFALL OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
FARTHER WEST THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS WEAKENING AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TOMORROW. THE
LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL GET ITS ENERGY CUT OFF BY
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ATTU. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF ADAK AND BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION BUT
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT ALL IS WELL WITH THE SOLUTIONS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
HAD IT YESTERDAY. MODELS NOW HAVE THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND WHERE THEY SHOWED A TRACK NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND YESTERDAY.
THE MAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW THE LOW IN THE
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT RUNS LOOK REASONABLE.
HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING AS THE APPARENTLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
FROM YESTERDAY JUST SHOWED THEM ALL BEING IN ERROR.

IN THE BERING SEA THE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND MODELS SEEMS TO
HANDLE IT WELL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ISSUES ARISE AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE BERING SEA AND
BEGINS TO ELONGATE...AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED WITH THE FARTHER EAST POSITION OF THE MAIN LOW AND
THE LOCATION IT EXPECTS THE TRIPLE POINT TO DEVELOP (IN THE
VICINITY OF SAND POINT EARLY MONDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...THE FOCUS
FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED AROUND A DEFORMATION
BAND THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS CONTINUED WET
SNOW TO NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND. THIS DEFORMATION BAND WAS
INITIALLY PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP COOK INLET...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE GULF LOW SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DOWNSLOPED...WITH NO SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK UP INTO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE GULF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH A STRONGER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE DELTA. PATCHY FOG ACROSS VALLEYS MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT. THIS WEAK SYSTEM DIMINISHES BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...
INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WILL TAPER DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE NEXT LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN CHAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. A HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING LOW ACCELERATES WESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR
UPDATES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER WITH THE
TRACK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A LONGER DURATION FOR HIGH WINDS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND FEATURES IS POOR AT BEST...YIELDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE FACT THAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE COLD AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

ACROSS THE BERING REGION...THE MAIN FEATURE THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING
WILL BE THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW HEADING TOWARD THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST BERING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MID TO
LATE WEEK THAT MAY BRING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION AT
SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 175 176 177.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 131 132 150 155 165 170 171 172
                      174 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 182.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...CC