Gale Warning 847, NWS Anchorage, AK

167 
FZAK61 PAFC 210010
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
310 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-211445-
310 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 973 MB LOW AT 57N 141W MOVES TO 57N 136W MON AFTERNOON AND THEN
INLAND BEFORE DISSIPATING TUE MORNING. A 980 MB LOW FORMS MON
AFTERNOON AT 55N 158W AND MOVES TO 54N 136W BY TUE AFTERNOON. A
986 MB LOW FORMS AT 60N 147W MON MORNING BEFORE MOVING TO 60N
144W BY TUE AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-211445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
310 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-211445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
310 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

929 
FZAK61 PAFC 211220
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-220300-
320 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 981 MB LOW AT 57N 139W REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES MON
NIGHT. A 980 MB LOW FORMS MON AFTERNOON ALONG A FRONT NEAR 56N
155W AND MOVES TO THE EASTERN GULF TUE EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
320 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-220300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
320 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.

$$

198 
FZAK61 PAFC 212355
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
255 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-221400-
255 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 985 MB LOW AT 59N 145W WEAKENS TO 990 MB AND MOVES TO
59N 142W AND MOVES INLAND NEAR 58N 136W WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
255 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 TO 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ352-221400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
255 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
W OF 149W...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.

$$

506 
FZAK61 PAFC 221216
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-230300-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB LOW NEAR 55N 147W EXITS INTO THE EASTERN GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. A 986 MB LOW NEAR 60N 145W DRIFTS EAST AND DISSIPATES
BY WED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF BY THU.

$$

PKZ351-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-230300-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 AM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 22 FT.

$$

601 
FZAK61 PAFC 230001
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-231400-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A BROAD 992 MB LOW NEAR 59N 141W DISSIPATES WED. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THROUGH THU EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-231400-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
301 PM AKST TUE DEC 22 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

454 
FZAK61 PAFC 231213
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-240245-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 995 MB LOW NEAR 59N 141W WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AND DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT AND PRESSES OVER KODIAK
CITY AND THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-240245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ352-240245-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
313 AM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 28 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.

$$

850 
FZAK61 PAFC 240043
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-241430-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW NEAR 58N 138W WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST ALASKA COAST AND DISSIPATES THU MORNING. A FRONT MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT AND THE CENTRAL GULF
THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-241430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND UP TO 15 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ352-241430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
343 PM AKST WED DEC 23 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.THU...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 16 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 27 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN OVER THE STATE IS A VERY ACTIVE ONE TODAY AS A STRONG
JET STREAM RUNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF
ALASKA. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
CENTER OVER KAMCHATKA THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA...COMBINED WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE JET...SETS UP THE AREA FOR THE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IN THE GULF IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND IS CAUSING THE SNOWFALL OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
FARTHER WEST THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS WEAKENING AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TOMORROW. THE
LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL GET ITS ENERGY CUT OFF BY
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ATTU. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF ADAK AND BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION BUT
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT ALL IS WELL WITH THE SOLUTIONS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
HAD IT YESTERDAY. MODELS NOW HAVE THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND WHERE THEY SHOWED A TRACK NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND YESTERDAY.
THE MAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW THE LOW IN THE
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT RUNS LOOK REASONABLE.
HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING AS THE APPARENTLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
FROM YESTERDAY JUST SHOWED THEM ALL BEING IN ERROR.

IN THE BERING SEA THE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND MODELS SEEMS TO
HANDLE IT WELL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ISSUES ARISE AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE BERING SEA AND
BEGINS TO ELONGATE...AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED WITH THE FARTHER EAST POSITION OF THE MAIN LOW AND
THE LOCATION IT EXPECTS THE TRIPLE POINT TO DEVELOP (IN THE
VICINITY OF SAND POINT EARLY MONDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...THE FOCUS
FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED AROUND A DEFORMATION
BAND THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS CONTINUED WET
SNOW TO NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND. THIS DEFORMATION BAND WAS
INITIALLY PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP COOK INLET...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE GULF LOW SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DOWNSLOPED...WITH NO SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK UP INTO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE GULF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH A STRONGER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE DELTA. PATCHY FOG ACROSS VALLEYS MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT. THIS WEAK SYSTEM DIMINISHES BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...
INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WILL TAPER DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE NEXT LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN CHAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. A HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING LOW ACCELERATES WESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR
UPDATES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER WITH THE
TRACK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A LONGER DURATION FOR HIGH WINDS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND FEATURES IS POOR AT BEST...YIELDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE FACT THAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE COLD AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

ACROSS THE BERING REGION...THE MAIN FEATURE THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING
WILL BE THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW HEADING TOWARD THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST BERING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MID TO
LATE WEEK THAT MAY BRING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION AT
SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 175 176 177.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 131 132 150 155 165 170 171 172
                      174 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 182.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...CC