Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015

Gale Warning 848, NWS Anchorage, AK

December 20, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Dec 20, 2015, 3:40 AM AKST. It was in force for 36 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Dec 20, 2015, 3:40 AM AKST (12:40 UTC)
Expired
Dec 21, 2015, 3:37 PM AKST
In force
36 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

689 
FZAK62 PAFC 201240
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-210300-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW NEAR 51N 177E MOVES TO 57N 180 AT 975 MB MON
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 55N 173E AT 980 MB TUE MORNING. A 976 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 54N 163W MON MORNING AND MOVES TO 55N 149W TUE
MORNING AND MAINTAINS STRENGTH.

$$

PKZ411-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 10
TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. .
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N. SEAS 9
TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 9 TO 15
FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ412-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SE TO SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. SNOW AND
RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11
TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ414-210300-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
340 AM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. WIND BECOMING SE 15 TO 25 KT S OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT EXCEPT W 15 TO 25 KT S OF THE PRIBILOF
ISLANDS. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT.

$$
3 follow-up statements
837 
FZAK62 PAFC 210019
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-211445-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 972 MB LOW AT 53N 179W MOVES TO 57N 180 AT 970 MB MON MORNING
AND THEN MOVES NEAR 55N 179E AT 988 MB TUE AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TO WESTERN ALASKA
PENINSULA BY MON AFTERNOON. A 980 MB LOW FORMS ON THE FRONT AT 55N
158W AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA MON NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 25 TO 40 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 56N.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT N OF 57N. 
SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.

$$

PKZ413-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 15 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-211445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
319 PM AKST SUN DEC 20 2015

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.TUE...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$
976 
FZAK62 PAFC 211228
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-220245-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 974 MB LOW NEAR 58N 176E MOVES TO 54N 169E AT 979 MB TUE
MORNING...THEN MOVES TO 55N 172E AT 988 MB WED MORNING. A 980 MB
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 56N 156W MON AFTERNOON AND MOVES INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUE. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO 48N 178E
WED MORNING AT 976 MB.

$$

PKZ411-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TODAY...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 17 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ412-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT EXCEPT E 35 KT N OF 58N. SEAS 13 TO
18 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. SNOW. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 28 FT.

$$

PKZ414-220245-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
328 AM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT. S OF 57N...W WIND 25 TO 40
KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$
461 
FZAK62 PAFC 220037
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-221445-
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A BROAD 980 MB STRETCHED ACROSS THE WESTERN BERING WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATED THROUGH TUE EVENING. A 983 MB LOW NEAR 54N 160W MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA TONIGHT. A STRONG NORTH PACIFIC
LOW WILL DEEPEN TO 965 MB AS IT TRACK TO 53N 177E BY WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF 57N.
SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 25 KT N OF 57N. SEAS 10 TO
15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N TO E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.WED...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 17 TO 25 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 18 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT. SNOW.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING E AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ413-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. SNOW.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 15 TO 30 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ414-221445-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
337 PM AKST MON DEC 21 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. N OF 57N...E WIND 25 TO 35 KT
BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 57N.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Dec 19, 4:42 PM AKST, 10 hours 58 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 19, 4:42 PM AKST, 10 hours 58 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
442 PM AKST SAT DEC 19 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN OVER THE STATE IS A VERY ACTIVE ONE TODAY AS A STRONG
JET STREAM RUNS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS AND GULF OF
ALASKA. THE ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW
CENTER OVER KAMCHATKA THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA...COMBINED WITH
THE LOCATION OF THE JET...SETS UP THE AREA FOR THE MULTIPLE AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW IN THE GULF IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN
ANTICIPATED YESTERDAY AND IS CAUSING THE SNOWFALL OVER KODIAK
ISLAND AND THE RAIN AND SNOW MIX OVER THE NORTH GULF COAST.
FARTHER WEST THE LOW IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA IS WEAKENING AND
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ONSHORE IN THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TOMORROW. THE
LOW IN THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA WILL GET ITS ENERGY CUT OFF BY
A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF ATTU. THIS LOW
WILL MOVE NORTHWEST OF ADAK AND BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION BUT
THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT ALL IS WELL WITH THE SOLUTIONS. THE TRACK
OF THE LOW CURRENTLY IN THE GULF IS MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS
HAD IT YESTERDAY. MODELS NOW HAVE THE LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND WHERE THEY SHOWED A TRACK NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND YESTERDAY.
THE MAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOW THE LOW IN THE
FARTHER SOUTH POSITION AND THEREFORE THE CURRENT RUNS LOOK REASONABLE.
HOWEVER IT BEARS WATCHING AS THE APPARENTLY GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS
FROM YESTERDAY JUST SHOWED THEM ALL BEING IN ERROR.

IN THE BERING SEA THE MODELS ALL INITIALIZED WELL ON THE LOW IN
THE NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY AND MODELS SEEMS TO
HANDLE IT WELL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN ISSUES ARISE AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO THE BERING SEA AND
BEGINS TO ELONGATE...AS A TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA. AT THIS POINT THE ECMWF SOLUTION
IS PREFERRED WITH THE FARTHER EAST POSITION OF THE MAIN LOW AND
THE LOCATION IT EXPECTS THE TRIPLE POINT TO DEVELOP (IN THE
VICINITY OF SAND POINT EARLY MONDAY).

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE LOW OVER THE GULF BEGINNING TO MOVE OFFSHORE...THE FOCUS
FOR THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL BE CENTERED AROUND A DEFORMATION
BAND THAT HAS SETUP OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND COOK INLET. THIS
DEFORMATION BAND WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOW TO THE
SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS CONTINUED WET
SNOW TO NORTHERN KODIAK ISLAND. THIS DEFORMATION BAND WAS
INITIALLY PROJECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD UP COOK INLET...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SNOW TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH THE RECENT
SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE GULF LOW SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN CLOUDY
AND DOWNSLOPED...WITH NO SNOWFALL EXPECTED. HEAVY SNOWFALL OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL BEGIN
TO BREAK UP INTO SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
THE LOW SPINS OFF TO THE SOUTH. CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO IMPROVE ON SUNDAY WITH DIMINISHING WINDS AND
CLEARING SKIES AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES IN BEHIND THE GULF LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND
CONTINUES A SOUTHEAST TRACK TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN RANGE THROUGH
SUNDAY AND WEAKENS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ACROSS THE VALLEYS
WITH A STRONGER FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH ALONG THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ON
SUNDAY ACROSS THE DELTA. PATCHY FOG ACROSS VALLEYS MAY BECOME
LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE
LOW WITH THE BEST DYNAMICS SUPPORTING ONLY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT. THIS WEAK SYSTEM DIMINISHES BY
MONDAY...HOWEVER ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BERING/ALEUTIANS...
INCLUDING THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WILL TAPER DOWN LATE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND
ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. THE NEXT LOW FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY BRINGING STRONG WINDS TO THE WESTERN CHAIN
THROUGH MONDAY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING. A HIGH WIND
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION ALONG THE BASE OF THE DEEPENING LOW ACCELERATES WESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH AND SLOWLY
WEAKEN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR
UPDATES AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER WITH THE
TRACK...POSSIBLY BRINGING A LONGER DURATION FOR HIGH WINDS ON
MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE JET STREAM WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK SUPPRESSED SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA MAINLAND FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...AND WILL ALLOW FOR
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF
CHRISTMAS WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL. MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS AND FEATURES IS POOR AT BEST...YIELDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF THE FACT THAT BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL IMPACT THE REGION. HOWEVER
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAINLAND...ESPECIALLY SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...AND OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE ONE OF THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM
THE COLD AIR FILTERING THROUGH THE TERRAIN GAPS INTO THE NORTHERN
GULF AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

ACROSS THE BERING REGION...THE MAIN FEATURE THAT WILL BEAR WATCHING
WILL BE THE DEPARTING STRONG LOW HEADING TOWARD THE GULF MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL THEN BE A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER STRONG
LOW ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST BERING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MID TO
LATE WEEK THAT MAY BRING A ROUND OF STRONG WINDS TO THE REGION AT
SOME POINT DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 173 175 176 177.
         GALE WARNING 119 120 131 132 150 155 165 170 171 172
                      174 178 179 180 181 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING 181 182.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...CC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 19, 3:02 PM AKSTStorm WarningAFC12 hr
Dec 19, 3:13 PM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC60 hr
Dec 19, 3:14 PM AKSTHigh Wind WatchAFC13 hr
Dec 20, 3:07 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC4 days
Dec 20, 3:07 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC4 days
Dec 20, 3:40 AM AKSTGale WarningAFC24 hr
Dec 20, 3:40 AM AKSTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.