Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015

Gale Warning 600, NWS Anchorage, AK

October 6, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Oct 6, 2015, 3:02 PM AKDT. It was in force for 61 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Oct 6, 2015, 3:02 PM AKDT (23:02 UTC)
Expired
Oct 9, 2015, 3:49 AM AKDT
In force
61 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

385 
FZAK61 PAFC 062302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071345-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW AT 48N 148W MOVES TO 55N 157W AND STRENGTHENS TO
966 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$
5 follow-up statements
753 
FZAK61 PAFC 071154
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080145-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 969 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 53N 151W EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 55N 157W AT
NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-080145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$
598 
FZAK61 PAFC 072300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081445-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 51N 151W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 55N 154W THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 972 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 55N 159W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-081445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$
536 
FZAK61 PAFC 081158
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090115-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 151W WILL TRACK TO 56N 158W AT 970 MB TONIGHT
...THEN TO 55N 157W AT 975 MB FRI NIGHT. A 986 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACK TO 52N 137W AT 967 MB TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N
140W AT 972 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$
063 
FZAK61 PAFC 082304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091430-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 151W MOVES TO 55N 156W AND WEAKENS TO 977 MB
BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$
274 
FZAK61 PAFC 091149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100100-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 55N 157W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT
DRIFTS TO 54N 154W EARLY SUN MORNING. A 973 MB NORTHEAST PACIFIC
LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 961 MB AS IT MOVES TO 57N 138W 90 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N 139W AT 969 MB LATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 142W AT 967 MB
EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Oct 6, 4:55 AM AKDT, 10 hours 7 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 6, 4:55 AM AKDT, 10 hours 7 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
455 AM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS A VERTICALLY STACKED
BERING SEA LOW THAT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING SEA. THE NORTHWARD MOVING LOW HAS STARTED TO LOSE
ITS SUPPORT FROM A STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK...AS THE
JET STREAK PIVOTS INTO A MORE ZONAL ORIENTATION SOUTH OF THE
BERING SEA. THIS TAKES THE LOW OUT OF THE FAVORABLE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF THE JET...WHICH AIDED IN THE RECENT CYCLONE
INTENSIFICATION. A DECAYING OCCLUDED FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
IS BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN A SOUTHEASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA...WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS KEEPING
AREAS IN THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS DRIER. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AT THE SURFACE...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE GUSTING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FORCE.

FURTHER EAST...RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING BERING LOW.
AT THE SURFACE UNDER THE RIDGE...FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUE TO
PRESENT A FORECAST CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL
UNDER CALM TO LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION IS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM
SOUND...WHERE LIGHT OUTFLOW WINDS ARE ALLOWING ENOUGH MIXING TO
PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT SYNOPTICALLY IN THE SHORT TO MID
TERM. SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES ARISE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
APPROACHING GULF LOW SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER THE IMPACTS OF THESE DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL. FOR
THE PRECIPITATION APPROACHING SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA EARLY
TOMORROW...THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS WERE USED OVER THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OF TERRAIN WITH THE
EASTERLY FLOW. WITH THE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK..FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING THE
ONSET OF A WINDY AND WET PATTERN ACROSS THE GULF...KENAI PEN...AND
COOK INLET REGION. THIS WILL FOR NOW WILL BRING AN END TO THE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG OVER THE MAINLAND AND COOK INLET. A
WEAKENING FRONT SLOWLY HEADS NORTH TODAY AND WILL SPREAD RAIN
ACROSS THE NORTH GULF AND KENAI PEN. THE ONSET OF SOUTHWESTERLY
ALOFT WILL SPREAD THE RAIN NORTH TOWARD THE SUSITNA VALLEY
TONIGHT. FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR MOST AREAS TO
BE RAIN EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTH SUSITNA VALLEY WHERE COLDER AIR
IN PLACE SHOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION TILTED TOWARD SNOW. ON
WED...THE BRUNT OF THE PRECIPITATION (RAIN) WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
GULF WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
GULF.

TURNAGAIN ARM AND PORTAGE VALLEY WINDS ALONG WITH SMALL CRAFT TO
GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
THIS MORNING WITH A WEAK LOW MOVING TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND. THESE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN LATER TODAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS RELAX. A
SECOND AND MUCH STRONGER ROUND OF WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WED AND
WED NIGHT WITH A NORTHWARD MOVING LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. GALES ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AND WESTERN GULF WED AFTERNOON. WINDS
LIKELY WILL INCREASE TO STORM FORCE ACROSS THE BARREN ISLANDS AND
THROUGH SHELIKOF STRAIT WED EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN BUT CONTINUE TO BRING WET
WEATHER AT IT REMAINS STRETCHED OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE INLAND TONIGHT REINVIGORATING
SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. A LARGE LOW TRACKING INTO THE GULF FROM
THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD RAIN AND BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE RATHER LARGE VERTICALLY STACKED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN BERING AS IT GRADUALLY FILLS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...DRIFTING TOWARDS THE GULF OF ANADYR. SEVERAL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS WILL ROTATE OUT OF RUSSIA AND ACROSS THE BERING SOUTH OF
THE LARGE UPPER LOW KEEPING THE WEATHER COOL AND SHOWERY WITH WESTERLY
WINDS IN THE 30 TO 35 KNOT RANGE. ON WEDNESDAY A DEEPER TROUGH
WILL SWING OFF OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA AND DIG MORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. THIS WILL BOTH ACT TO
START PULLING THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND TO SHIFT THE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE THEM UP TO GALES OVER A BROADER AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER WESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE CHIRIKOF ISLAND
REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS...SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN COOK
INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STRATUS. THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER EAST THAN THE
OTHER MODELS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THIS SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PHASE IN WITH A
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT IS TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PHASING IN
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DUE TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND.

MEANWHILE...ON THE BERING SIDE THERE IS A DECAYING LOW THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING A SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
BERING WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION AS THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BERING AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY 101 111.
MARINE...GALE 130 131 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JER
LONG TERM...PD

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 6, 3:40 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC3 days
Oct 6, 3:40 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC11 hr
Oct 6, 3:41 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC5 days
Oct 6, 4:43 AM AKDTDense Fog AdvisoryAFC6 hr
Oct 6, 3:02 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC61 hr
Oct 6, 3:02 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC61 hr
Oct 6, 3:02 PM AKDTStorm WarningAFC61 hr
Oct 6, 3:05 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC48 hr
Oct 6, 3:05 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC37 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.