Gale Warning 599, NWS Anchorage, AK

385 
FZAK61 PAFC 062302
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-071345-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 998 MB LOW AT 48N 148W MOVES TO 55N 157W AND STRENGTHENS TO
966 MB THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-071345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-071345-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
302 PM AKDT TUE OCT 6 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

753 
FZAK61 PAFC 071154
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-080145-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 986 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 969 MB AS IT
MOVES TO 53N 151W EARLY THU MORNING AND THEN MOVE TO 55N 157W AT
NEAR THE SAME INTENSITY BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-080145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ352-080145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
354 AM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

598 
FZAK61 PAFC 072300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-081445-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 975 MB LOW NEAR 51N 151W WILL STRENGTHEN TO 968 MB AS IT MOVES
TO 55N 154W THU AFTERNOON. THIS LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN TO 972 MB AS
IT MOVES TO 55N 159W FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-081445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.THU...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-081445-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKDT WED OCT 7 2015

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

536 
FZAK61 PAFC 081158
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090115-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 151W WILL TRACK TO 56N 158W AT 970 MB TONIGHT
...THEN TO 55N 157W AT 975 MB FRI NIGHT. A 986 MB PACIFIC LOW WILL
TRACK TO 52N 137W AT 967 MB TONIGHT...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N
140W AT 972 MB FRI NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090115-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
358 AM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

063 
FZAK61 PAFC 082304
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091430-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 968 MB LOW NEAR 53N 151W MOVES TO 55N 156W AND WEAKENS TO 977 MB
BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091430-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
304 PM AKDT THU OCT 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE 
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

274 
FZAK61 PAFC 091149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100100-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 971 MB LOW NEAR 55N 157W WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 980 MB AS IT
DRIFTS TO 54N 154W EARLY SUN MORNING. A 973 MB NORTHEAST PACIFIC
LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN TO 961 MB AS IT MOVES TO 57N 138W 90 THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE INLAND NEAR 59N 139W AT 969 MB LATE THIS
EVENING. ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 52N 142W AT 967 MB
EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
TO 9 FT.
.SAT...S TO E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100100-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
349 AM AKDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.TODAY...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE UP TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
431 PM AKDT MON OCT 5 2015

CORRECTED

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO CHANGE FROM THE ZONAL FLOW
WE SAW YESTERDAY INTO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THE WEAK RIDGE
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA IS BUILDING AND MOVING EASTWARD AS THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING SEA WILL DIG
SOUTHEASTWARD AND BECOME THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW BY WEDNESDAY.
THE JET STREAM IS CURRENTLY RUNNING JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS
FROM DUE WEST TO EAST AT AROUND 125 TO 135 KT BUT IT WILL
STRENGTHEN AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS AND TURNS MORE TO THE
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THE LOW WILL NOT MOVE MUCH
FARTHER TO THE EAST BUT WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT DAY AS
IT DRIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE. THIS RIDGE HAS TRAPPED
LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE UNDERNEATH IT PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND FOG FROM KODIAK NORTHWARD THROUGH COOK INLET AND THE
ENTIRE SUSITNA VALLEY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ONCE AGAIN.
THE BIGGEST ITEM TO NOTE IS THEY AS A COLLECTIVE THEY ARE SLOWLY
INCREASING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW MOVING INTO THE GULF LATER IN
THE WEEK. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE LOW REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO IMPACT THE GULF AND GULF COAST
FASTER THAN IT LOOKED EARLIER. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE ONSET OF A
WET AND WINDY PATTERN ALONG THE GULF AND SURROUNDING COAST...WITH
A PERSISTENT PATTERN INLAND OF CLOUDS AND FOG IMPROVING DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. THIS EVENING A FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND
THEN HEADS SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM SPREADS RAIN
FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO THE KENAI AND NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH SMALL CRAFT TO GALE STRENGTH WINDS NEAR THE BARREN ISLANDS.
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE TURNAGAIN ARM AND
PORTAGE VALLEY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REINFORCED BY THE NEXT FRONT
MOVING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. THIS NEXT FRONT WILL ADDITIONALLY
BRING GUSTIER WINDS ACROSS THE COOK INLET...NORTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF. FOG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH
ADEQUATE SURFACE MOISTURE AND CALM WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BERING SEA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND TONIGHT...BECOMING STATIONARY ON TUESDAY
AND BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE REGION AS THERE IS A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH
THIS FRONT...ADVECTING DECENT AMOUNT OF NORTH PACIFIC MOISTURE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ALONG THE
AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT TUESDAY EVENING...STEADY
RAIN WILL TRANSITION A MORE SHOWERY REGIME.

WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO
DIMINISH OVER THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

WITH ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE COAST...PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR AT GALE FORCE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD TO NEAR
GAMBELL ISLAND. AS THE LOW BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY
NIGHT...WINDS EAST OF 180 WILL GENERALLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY AND
DECREASE TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS. WEST OF 180...WINDS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO NEAR-GALE OR GALE FORCE OVER THE WESTERN
BERING SEA AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TRACK THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING NORTH PACIFIC
LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE LOWER WESTERN GULF BY WEDNESDAY. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW TRACKS CLOSER TO THE CHIRIKOF ISLAND
REGION THE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL STRENGTHEN RESULTING IN STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF EXTENDING
THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS...SHELIKOF STRAIT AND THE SOUTHERN COOK
INLET THROUGH THURSDAY MIDDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND STRATUS. THE ECMWF MODEL SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRIES TO PUSH THIS SYSTEM FARTHER EAST THAN THE
OTHER MODELS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL NEGATIVE TILTED RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF REGION AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS ARE
DEPICTING THIS SYSTEM BECOMING STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN PHASE IN WITH A
ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW THAT IS TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY SATURDAY. THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PHASING IN
OF THESE TWO SYSTEMS DUE TO THE TIMING AND STRENGTH AS WE HEAD
INTO THE WEEKEND.

WHILE...ON THE BERING SIDE THERE IS A DECAYING LOW THAT WILL TRACK
FROM THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL BERING BY THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING TO A MORE
NORTHERLY FLOW BY FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO AFFECT THE
BERING WILL BE A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL BRING ABUNDANT MOISTURE SPILLING OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA
INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA REGION AS THIS
SYSTEM BECOMES ALMOST STATIONARY NEAR CHIRIKOF ISLANDS BY FRIDAY.
THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL KEEP THE BERING AND THE ALUETIAN CHAIN
IN NORTHERLY FLOW SCATTERED SHOWERY WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 131 180 181 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...PD