Gale Warning 6, NWS Anchorage, AK

330 
FZAK62 PAFC 032349
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-041400-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA DISSIPATES SUNDAY. A
953 MB LOW NEAR 45N 165E MOVES NORTHWEST TOWARD THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA AND WEAKENS MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
WEAKENS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY.

$$

PKZ411-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.

$$

PKZ414-041400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
249 PM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
423 PM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE STORM IS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA WITH AN ASSOCIATED
STORM FORCE FRONT EXTENDING IN AN ARC THROUGH AMCHITKA AND A
SURFACE LOW FORMING ALONG THIS FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE CHAIN. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE EASTERN
BERING SEA IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY INTO INTERIOR
ALASKA AS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED IN SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA HAS A
TROUGH EXTENDING TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SUN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY INTO THE INTERIOR
COUPLED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE COLD AIR ALOFT SUPPORT THE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS THROUGH THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MOVING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST FROM THE EAST. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST. WE EXPECT THESE TO REMAIN ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND BY THE TIME IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN KENAI
PENINSULA THE LOWER LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY DRY THIS EVENING
TO KEEP THIS TO ONLY CLOUDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. WE EXPECT THE
CLOUD COVER TO MOVE OFF TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY.

COLD AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN MORE SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. TWO MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THIS WEEKEND REMAIN OUTFLOW WIND AND THE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUD COVER WILL HEAVILY
INFLUENCE THE TEMPERATURES AS WILL THE NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND.
WHILE THE WIND IS TRENDING DOWNWARD ANY LOCATIONS THAT CONTINUE TO
HAVE WIND WILL SEE HIGHER TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE MIXING OF THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE. OVERALL THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IS GOING INTO A
COOLER MORE CLOUD FREE PATTERN. THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA IS NOW
ENTERING A COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY)...THE LAST RESIDUAL LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS CLIPPING THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN RANGE ON ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT. THIS RIDGE IS SYNCING UP WITH THE CLOSED HIGH CURRENTLY
OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND WILL FORM A DOMINANT AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT MUCH LESS FOG TO
DEVELOP THAN THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF MORNINGS AS THERE IS SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN. SATURDAY MORNING WILL START CLEAR
AND COLD WITH MOST LOCATIONS REACHING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR
COLDER. SUNSHINE IS ON THE DOCKET FOR JUST ABOUT ALL LOCATIONS.
THE LONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS RIGHT ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
ALEUTIAN RANGE AS SOME MOISTURE TRIES TO WRAP IN FROM A DECAYING
SYSTEM CLIPPING THE BARREN ISLANDS.

DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER CLEAR DAY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2...SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY)...THE MOST ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE STATE IS OUT OVER THE
ALEUTIANS. A WAVE IS PROPAGATING LONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
IS TAPPING INTO SOME COLDER AIR COMING OFF THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA. THIS HAS ALLOWED THAT WAVE TO STRENGTHEN PRETTY QUICKLY
THIS EVENING. WE HAVE INCREASED WINDS FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WITH THIS PACKAGE AND INCREASED SEVERAL COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
MARINE ZONES TO STORM WARNINGS. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THIS FRONT
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE MUCH MORE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS THE AFORE
MENTIONED RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FRONT OF IT. ONCE THIS FRONT
PULLS OFF TO THE BERING STRAIT ON SATURDAY...IT WILL LEAVE MOST OF
THE BERING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER AND
CALMER WINDS. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
BY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS
FROM ATKA TO SHEMYA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON LOCATION OF A HIGH LATITUDE
BLOCK...WITH RIDGE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA ON SUNDAY WEAKENING AS A
NEW RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BERING SEA AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER FAR
EASTERN SIBERIA/BERING STRAIT BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW AN
ARCTIC TROUGH TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS MAINLAND ALASKA BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO SOUTHCENTRAL MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA...WHICH WILL
THEN ALLOW THE THE TROUGH TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE...BRINGING
MARGINALLY WEAKER COLD ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA MID WEEK. BASED ON INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE DESCRIBED EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN HAVE TRENDED TOWARD NOTABLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ARCTIC AIR AND TIGHTENING
OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA HAVE ALSO STARTED
TO INDICATE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SOME STRONGER GAP WINDS ALONG THE
NORTH GULF COAST/PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. THE HEADLINE FOR THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS DRY AND (SEASONABLY)
COLD. THE AIR MASS SETTLING IN OVER SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY WILL BE
THE COLDEST OF THE WINTER THUS FAR. WIND SHELTERED AREAS SHOULD
ACTUALLY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW NORMAL.

MEANWHILE ONE MORE STORM FORCE LOW WILL TRACK INTO THE FAR WESTERN
BERING SUNDAY...THOUGH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE BERING WILL
CONFINE THE EFFECTS TO THE ALEUTIANS. IN FACT BY MID WEEK THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE NEARLY THE ENTIRE BERING SEA LEADING
TO MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS.

AS WE HEAD TO THE END OF NEXT WEEK MODEL SPREAD GROWS LARGE WITH
HANDLING OF SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE TROUGH WHICH
MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL OPEN
THE WAY FOR ENERGY FROM THE PACIFIC TO ROTATE UP INTO THE GULF
AND TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL. EVEN WITH THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD THERE
IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT AND SIMILAR TRENDS TOWARD BRINGING PRECIP TO
THE GULF COASTAL REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...SO
HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY. IT IS MUCH MORE DIFFICULT TO SAY WHETHER
PRECIP WILL MAKE IT INLAND OR WHETHER IT WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA OR THE BERING SEA. WITH AT LEAST AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION...EXPECT MODERATING TEMPERATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 175 176 177
         GALE 173 174 178 179 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MSO
LONG TERM...SEB