Gale Warning 5, NWS Anchorage, AK

558 
FZAK62 PAFC 031205
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-040230-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING THROUGH CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
MOVES NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN BERING WHILE
WEAKENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATES SUNDAY. A
WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING 966 MB LOW NEAR 50N 164E
SUNDAY MOVES NORTH TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SUNDAY NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 16 TO 21 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ413-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 10 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-040230-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 AM AKST SAT JAN 3 2015

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
512 AM AKST FRI JAN 2 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE PATTERN OF THE FUTURE IS TAKING SHAPE EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
MOST NOTICEABLE FEATURE ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS A DEEP LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE COAST OF KAMCHATKA AND ITS ATTENDANT
FRONT/MOISTURE PLUME SPREADING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.
HOWEVER...UPON CLOSER INSPECTION OF THE SATELLITE LOOP THE MORE
DOMINANT FEATURE AND ONE THAT SHAPES THE UPCOMING PATTERN IS A
CLOSED/BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. THE
EVIDENCE OF ITS STRENGTH SHOWS UP IN THE DESTRUCTION OF THE SYSTEM
IN THE EASTERN GULF. THAT SYSTEM HAS LEFT LINGERING LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND CANADIAN YUKON. THE RESULT IS AN
OUTFLOW TYPE PATTERN...BUT IN THIS CASE THE LACK OF ARCTIC AIR
OVER THE SOUTHCENTRAL MEANS THE OUTFLOW IS MORE OF A PULLING EVENT
RATHER THAN A PUSHING EVENT IN REGARD TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE CHUGACH. CLOUD COVER IS ON THE DECREASE OVER THE
SOUTHCENTRAL EXCEPT FOR A DECAYING FRONT OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA. FOG AND LOW STRATUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND HAS
BEEN THWARTED BY THE MID/HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BOTH
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS WELL AS THE SURFACE...ESPECIALLY WITH THE
SETUP AND EVOLUTION OF THE BLOCKING HIGH. THE ONLY DISTURBANCE TO
TRACK SLIDES UNDER THE RIDGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THERE IS LITTLE
DIFFERENCE IN HOW GLOBAL/MESOSCALE GUIDANCE HANDLES THE SURFACE
SYSTEM WILL WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THE MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

AS THE STORM NEAR THE PANHANDLE CONTINUES TO LOSE STRENGTH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTHERN ALASKA IS
BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. AS A RESULT...GAP WINDS ALONG THE COAST HAVE
LIKELY PEAKED AND WILL TREND SLOWLY BUT STEADILY DOWNWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. MANY AREAS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SEE MORE
SUNSHINE THAN IN RECENT TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM THE KENAI
PENINSULA UP TO ANCHORAGE. COMBINED WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO
THE REGION...TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL DROP TO NEAR
OR EVEN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH WILL BE HEAVILY CONTROLLED BY CLOUD-
COVER AND LOCAL GAP WIND EFFECTS. A RESIDUAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST WILL SLIDE WESTWARD TONIGHT...BRINGING
A GLANCING BLOW OF INCREASED CLOUD-COVER AND EVEN SOME MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY TO COASTAL AREAS BEFORE SLIDING SOUTHWARD AND OUT
INTO THE OPEN GULF BY LATE SATURDAY. THERE DOES NOT CURRENTLY
APPEAR TO BE MUCH CHANCE AT ALL OF ANY OF THESE SHOWERS MAKING IT
ACROSS THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS INTO THE POPULATION CENTERS...BUT A
WEAK UPPER LOW OVER WESTERN COOK INLET DOES LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO
PERHAPS BRING SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE AREA ON
SATURDAY BEFORE MORE SIGNIFICANT DRYING AND CLEARING TAKES OVER
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. OVERALL THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE AREA
IS NOW ENTERING A COLD AND MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

JUST A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LINGER ACROSS THE COASTAL LOCATIONS OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND
BRISTOL BAY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ONE LAST PUSH OF HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA EARLY TODAY BEFORE SKIES BEGIN
TO CLEAR AND A SPELL OF DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS OBSERVED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL BE OBSERVED
EARLY THIS MORNING AS CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
ON THE WARM SIDE. AS THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN
TO RADIATE OUT AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY FALL DURING THE
DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE THE LAST NIGHT OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR A WHILE AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR IF NOT COMPLETELY
CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL BE A
NICE REPRIEVE AFTER THE EXTENDED CLOUDINESS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH LIGHT WINDS...BUT IT IS CURRENTLY PERCEIVED THAT THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FOGGY
SITUATIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING OFF THE KAMCHATKA COAST
HAS BEGUN TO DRIVE A STRONG WARM FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
OCCLUDE AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD...WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH
ALREADY MEASURED AT SHEMYA. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARD ADAK AND ATKA LATER THIS MORNING. A BUILDING RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL SLOW THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE FRONT
STALLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...HEAVY AT TIMES OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS IS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO MIX
WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE
SAME TIME ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THIS TIME COMING OFF THE
COAST OF JAPAN...WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND BRING
ANOTHER GALE FORCE WIND EVENT TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (SUN JANUARY 4 - THU JANUARY 8)...
BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND WESTERN
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THE PATTERN SHIFT TOWARDS DRIER AND COLDER AS
THE PACIFIC STORM TRACK IS SHUNTED SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD. THIS
PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME OF THE DRIEST AND MOST CLOUD FREE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE IN A VERY LONG TIME...WITH A RETURN TO
NEAR IF NOT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE PATTERN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS THE BLOCKING HIGH
WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE PATTERN BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN BY
THURSDAY GIVEN THE CHALLENGES NUMERICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS
WITH THE BREAKDOWN OF BLOCKING PATTERNS.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 173-177 185.
         STORM 178.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MTL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AMD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MC
LONG TERM...AHSENMACHER