Gale Warning 589, NWS Anchorage, AK

960 
FZAK52 PAFC 291530 AAA
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

UPDATED ZONE 150

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-300315-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A GULF LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT. A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE WESTERN
BERING LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BY LATE
WED NIGHT.

$$

PKZ150-300315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ155-300315-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 15 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-300315-
BRISTOL BAY-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-300315-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT...EXCEPT 40 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E IN THE
EVENING. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-300315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT E OF UNALASKA IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-300315-
UNALASKA BAY-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT DIMINISHING TO 3 FT TOWARD
MORNING. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-300315-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT 35 KT E OF UNALASKA IN THE
MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF UNIMAK PASS. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ173-300315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-300315-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-300315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ176-300315-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 23 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ177-300315-
ADAK TO KISKA-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ178-300315-
KISKA TO ATTU-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ179-300315-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...W INCREASING TO WIND 35 KT IN THE EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-300315-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ181-300315-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-300315-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
730 AM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.TODAY...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...NW WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...W WIND 15 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

645 
FZAK52 PAFC 292329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-301245-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 973 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX 983 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR WESTERN BERING WED AND STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN BERING THU. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN BERING LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-301245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-301245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ160-301245-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-301245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...NW WIND 40 KT
DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FROM
PORT MOLLER E...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ170-301245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ171-301245-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-301245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF UNIMAK PASS. SEAS
8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ173-301245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT BUILDING TO 20 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ174-301245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ175-301245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 55 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ176-301245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT BUILDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 55 KT. SEAS 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ177-301245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 13 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 55 KT BECOMING SW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
21 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-301245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FROM SHEMYA W...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 18 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ179-301245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 11 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ180-301245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT.
.THU...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ181-301245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ185-301245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...S WIND 15 KT INCREASING
TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. W OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND... S WIND 30
KT BECOMING SE 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA... AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST ALASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING. TO THE EAST...A QUITE BROAD RIDGE COVERS MAINLAND ALASKA
AND STRETCHES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. A SECOND RIDGE COVERS THE
WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A POTENT COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND JUST NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS ALASKA FROM THE TROPICS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH MODELS...WITH
THE NAM BRINGING IN COLDER AIR MUCH FASTER THAN ANY OTHER
MODEL...AND INDICATING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
HOWEVER...THE NAM IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER...AND THE MORE
CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC GFS MODEL WAS CHOSEN.  MEANWHILE...TO
THE WEST OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE BERING AND AKPEN. THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THESE
TWO POTENT FEATURES IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT PARTICULARLY GUSTY
WINDS...ACROSS THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND...TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN SEWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THE
POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL BUT
VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND IN
SYSTEM STRUCTURE WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD AIR (TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW). THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE NEAR SEA LEVEL REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE LATEST FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD
A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE LOW LANDS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH A LOW ALREADY UNDERGOING
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WILL
DEVELOP INTO A STRONG SURFACE LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD AIR CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THE BERING
TROUGH WILL DIG UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND PULL ITS TRACK BACK
WESTWARD... ULTIMATELY TRACKING TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL ADVECT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS LOW TRACK ALSO MEANS THE
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SET UP WEST OF
ANCHORAGE FROM THE WESTERN KENAI/COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS WILL DELAY THE BEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT ALL MODELS DEPICT THIS...BUT CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND EXPERIENCE
SUPPORT THIS IDEA.

BASED ON THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WILL DELAY THE WIDESPREAD
CHANGEOVER IN PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE...THE WESTERN KENAI...AND MUCH OF
THE MAT-SU. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE BOTH TO ADVECTION AND THE
PROCESS OF MELTING SNOW (WHICH REMOVES HEAT FROM THE ENVIRONMENT).
THUS THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ANCHORAGE AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME CONDITIONS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THE STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE COMING TO AN
END. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROCESSES WILL START UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE MUCH IF ANY SNOW.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS AS NEW GUIDANCE
COMES IN BEFORE BEING ABLE TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE.

MEANWHILE...THIS WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY
INDICATES HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THIS AREA BASED
ON INITIAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION (AND
MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT) WITH PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DEEPER SURFACE LOW (AND
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS) WILL UP WINDS EVEN MORE...WITH
HURRICANE FORECAST GUSTS NOW LIKELY IN THE KAMISHAK BAY AREA (AND
POSSIBLY OTHER GAPS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA).

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL DO EXPECT THE USUAL GAP WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. AS WINDS DIE DOWN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT SOME VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PASSAGE OF A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS ARE IN STORE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...RESULTING IN STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.
IN ADDITION A STRONG STORM TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
HAVE STRENGTHENED WINDS AREA-WIDE IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH GAPS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
IN THE GULF EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

DUE TO THE STORM TRACKING INTO THE GULF THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER NIGHT TONIGHT (WITH THE COLD FRONT
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST).
CONTINUED LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (WITH SOME LIFT ALSO COMING
IN FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THE GULF STORM) WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TO PRODUCE
STEADY RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO STEADY SNOW
AS COLD AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES WITH MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS YOU RISE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS COLD AIR
MOVES OVER MUCH WARMER WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND BRISTOL
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE
CONSTANT MOVEMENT OF COLD AIR ACROSS MUCH WARMER WATERS WILL
GENERATE A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS. THE WARM WATERS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WHICH MEANS PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN MAINLY RAIN DESPITE
THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BECOME NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SHOWERS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER TOP
OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
BERING. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A COMPLEX LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING. THIS REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH A STORM
FORCE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
BERING. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW AREA OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET STREAK MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LEFTOVERS
OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LINGERING SNOW OVER THE COPPER BASIN WILL
END OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL CLEARING OUT AT LEAST
PARTIALLY...ALLOWING FOR SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A REPRIEVE FROM RAIN AND CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONG STORM FORCE FRONT
OVER THE BERING MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BESIDES RAIN AND CLOUDS...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A RETURN
TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND
DISCONNECTED FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOISTURE. ANOTHER WESTERN
BERING FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 132 138 150 351 352. GALE 119 120 155 160
165 170 172 178 179 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...JA