Gale Warning 552, NWS Anchorage, AK

964 
FZAK62 PAFC 292320
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-301345-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 973 MB LOW IN THE NORTHWEST GULF OF ALASKA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON. A COMPLEX 983 MB KAMCHATKA LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
FAR WESTERN BERING WED AND STRENGTHEN TO 974 MB OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN BERING THU. AN ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL ENTER
THE WESTERN BERING LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN MOVE TO THE EASTERN
BERING BY THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT BUILDING TO 11 TO 19
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ412-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...STORM WARNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S TO W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG.
.WED NIGHT...SE WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-301345-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
320 PM AKDT TUE SEP 29 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO
11 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

270 
FZAK62 PAFC 301146
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-010115-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 990 MB LOW NEAR 53N 175E THIS EVENING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY TO
970 MB AS IT MOVES TO 61N 176E LATE THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE FAR NORTHERN BERING SEA FRI MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL BERING THU MORNING AND
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON AND INLAND LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT
BUILDING TO 11 TO 19 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ412-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 17 TO 26 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 8 TO 16 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-010115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
346 AM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

376 
FZAK62 PAFC 302318
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-011430-
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 982 MB LOW AT 56N 165E WILL MOVE TO 62N 178E THU AFTERNOON AND
DEEPEN TO 973 MB THEN TO 65N 178E FRI AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN TO 992
MB. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BERING THU MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING THU AFTERNOON
AND INLAND LATE THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT EXCEPT BECOMING W 25 KT W OF
175E IN THE EVENING. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.THU...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST N. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 25 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ413-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 40 TO 55 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SW 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-011430-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
318 PM AKDT WED SEP 30 2015

...STORM WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...STRONGEST W. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

947 
FZAK62 PAFC 011144
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-020200-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 980 MB LOW NEAR 59N 173E WILL MOVE TO 65N 179E AT 984 MB BY
FRI MORNING...THEN WEAKEN TO 992 MB AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA FRI AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL BERING WILL TRACK INTO THE EASTERN BERING BY THU
AFTERNOON...THEN INLAND BY THU NIGHT.

$$

PKZ411-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT BECOMING SW 25 TO 35 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 16 TO 24 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ413-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-020200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
344 AM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

233 
FZAK62 PAFC 012305
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-021330-
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 975 MB LOW AT 62N 180 WILL MOVE TO 64N 180 FRI AFTERNOON AND
WEAKEN TO 990 MB. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE EASTERN BERING
WILL MOVE INLAND TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL THEN REMAIN STATIONARY AND
FURTHER WEAKEN TO 1008 MB BY SAT AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-021330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.

$$

PKZ412-021330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 TO 25 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 TO 18
FT IN THE EARLY EVENING.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-021330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ414-021330-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
305 PM AKDT THU OCT 1 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT...STRONGEST E. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
453 PM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS POISED JUST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND
ALASKA... AND STRETCHES FROM NORTHEAST ALASKA INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING. TO THE EAST...A QUITE BROAD RIDGE COVERS MAINLAND ALASKA
AND STRETCHES INTO NORTHWEST CANADA. A SECOND RIDGE COVERS THE
WESTERN BERING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA. A POTENT COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND JUST NORTH OF
THE ALASKA RANGE. A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE IS SURGING NORTHWARD
TOWARDS ALASKA FROM THE TROPICS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL ALASKA OVER THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME INCONSISTENCY WITH MODELS...WITH
THE NAM BRINGING IN COLDER AIR MUCH FASTER THAN ANY OTHER
MODEL...AND INDICATING WIDESPREAD SNOW ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL.
HOWEVER...THE NAM IS CURRENTLY AN OUTLIER...AND THE MORE
CONSISTENT AND REALISTIC GFS MODEL WAS CHOSEN.  MEANWHILE...TO
THE WEST OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO BUILD ACROSS THE BERING AND AKPEN. THE CONTRAST BETWEEN THESE
TWO POTENT FEATURES IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT PARTICULARLY GUSTY
WINDS...ACROSS THE AKPEN AND KODIAK ISLAND...TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY IN SEWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING INTO AFTERNOON.&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
ALL ATTENTION IS FOCUSED ON DEVELOPMENT OF A MAJOR STORM AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR THE
POPULATION CENTERS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. THERE ARE STILL SOME SMALL BUT
VERY SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TRACK OF SURFACE LOW AND IN
SYSTEM STRUCTURE WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND ARRIVAL TIME OF COLD AIR (TO CHANGE PRECIP OVER
TO SNOW). THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER SNOW WILL
ACCUMULATE NEAR SEA LEVEL REMAINS LOW.

BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE THE LATEST FORECAST WILL TREND TOWARD
A WARMER SOLUTION...WITH LESS PROBABILITY OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN
THE LOW LANDS OF SOUTHCENTRAL. WITH A LOW ALREADY UNDERGOING
DEEPENING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS WILL
DEVELOP INTO A STRONG SURFACE LOW AS IT INTERACTS WITH UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD AIR CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
BERING SEA. AS THIS LOW TRACKS INTO THE WESTERN GULF THE BERING
TROUGH WILL DIG UNDERNEATH THE LOW AND PULL ITS TRACK BACK
WESTWARD... ULTIMATELY TRACKING TO THE EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA.
WARM AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW CENTER WILL ADVECT WESTWARD
ACROSS THE KENAI PENINSULA. THIS LOW TRACK ALSO MEANS THE
DEFORMATION BAND ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL SET UP WEST OF
ANCHORAGE FROM THE WESTERN KENAI/COOK INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. THIS WILL DELAY THE BEST LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
UNTIL THE STORM SYSTEM BEGINS TO EXIT TO THE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
NOT ALL MODELS DEPICT THIS...BUT CONCEPTUAL MODELS AND EXPERIENCE
SUPPORT THIS IDEA.

BASED ON THIS PREFERRED SOLUTION WILL DELAY THE WIDESPREAD
CHANGEOVER IN PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT FOR
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE...THE WESTERN KENAI...AND MUCH OF
THE MAT-SU. HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL BE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH SNOW
LEVELS DROPPING TOMORROW AFTERNOON DUE BOTH TO ADVECTION AND THE
PROCESS OF MELTING SNOW (WHICH REMOVES HEAT FROM THE ENVIRONMENT).
THUS THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL THAT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
ANCHORAGE AREA WILL SEE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION BEGINNING TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. BY THE TIME CONDITIONS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOWFALL AT
LOWER ELEVATIONS THE STRONG DYNAMICAL LIFT WILL BE COMING TO AN
END. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE PROCESSES WILL START UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS WHICH WILL GENERATE SOME PRECIP. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER THERE IS ENOUGH PRECIP TO ACCUMULATE MUCH IF ANY SNOW.
WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WORK OUT THE DETAILS AS NEW GUIDANCE
COMES IN BEFORE BEING ABLE TO ANSWER THIS QUESTION WITH ANY
CONFIDENCE.

MEANWHILE...THIS WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE WIND EVENT ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF AND KODIAK ISLAND. THE CURRENT FORECAST ALREADY
INDICATES HIGH END GALES TO STORM FORCE WINDS FOR THIS AREA BASED
ON INITIAL COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWED BY STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION (AND
MIXING DOWN OF STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT) WITH PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A DEEPER SURFACE LOW (AND
TIGHTER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS) WILL UP WINDS EVEN MORE...WITH
HURRICANE FORECAST GUSTS NOW LIKELY IN THE KAMISHAK BAY AREA (AND
POSSIBLY OTHER GAPS ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA).

AS THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS ON WEDNESDAY GENERALLY EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL DO EXPECT THE USUAL GAP WINDS ALONG
THE COAST. AS WINDS DIE DOWN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REST OF SOUTHCENTRAL EXPECT SOME VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
PASSAGE OF A LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT HAS RESULTED IN DEVELOPMENT OF
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS ARE IN STORE LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...RESULTING IN STRONG DOWNWARD MOMENTUM
IN THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.
IN ADDITION A STRONG STORM TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL
TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
HAVE STRENGTHENED WINDS AREA-WIDE IN THE LATEST FORECASTS. SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH GAPS OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA
DUE TO A VERY FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF LOW LEVEL FLOW AS WELL AS
TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE STORM SYSTEM
IN THE GULF EXITS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
CENTRAL BERING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

DUE TO THE STORM TRACKING INTO THE GULF THE FORWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD FRONT AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STALL
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA OVER NIGHT TONIGHT (WITH THE COLD FRONT
ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND THE UPPER TROUGH FARTHER WEST).
CONTINUED LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH (WITH SOME LIFT ALSO COMING
IN FROM THE EAST AHEAD OF THE GULF STORM) WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES TO PRODUCE
STEADY RAIN THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...CHANGING TO STEADY SNOW
AS COLD AIR MOVES IN THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WEST OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES WITH MUCH HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS YOU RISE UP THE
WESTERN SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
MORE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS COLD AIR
MOVES OVER MUCH WARMER WATERS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND BRISTOL
BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL COINCIDE WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AS STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT MIX DOWN. THE
CONSTANT MOVEMENT OF COLD AIR ACROSS MUCH WARMER WATERS WILL
GENERATE A STEADY STREAM OF SHOWERS. THE WARM WATERS WILL HELP
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY SHALLOW LAYER OF ABOVE FREEZING AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE WHICH MEANS PRECIP-TYPE WILL REMAIN MAINLY RAIN DESPITE
THE FAIRLY COLD AIR ABOVE THIS BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURE
ADVECTION WILL BECOME NEUTRAL TO POSITIVE TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST WHICH WILL LEAD TO DIMINISHING WINDS AND
SHOWERS. IT DOES LOOK LIKE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER TOP
OF THE RIDGE BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE PRIBILOFS AND EASTERN
BERING. OTHERWISE ATTENTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO A COMPLEX LOW
OVER THE NORTHWEST BERING. THIS REMAINS ON TRACK TO PUSH A STORM
FORCE FRONT EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN
BERING. IT WILL BE A FAIRLY NARROW AREA OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THANKS TO A STRONG
SOUTHERLY JET STREAK MOVING UP FROM THE PACIFIC.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LEFTOVERS
OF AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AS THE BROADER
SCALE TROUGH MOVES EAST. LINGERING SNOW OVER THE COPPER BASIN WILL
END OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF SOUTHCENTRAL CLEARING OUT AT LEAST
PARTIALLY...ALLOWING FOR SOME UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES TO
DEVELOP BY THURSDAY MORNING. WEAK AND FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE
RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY...ALLOWING
FOR A REPRIEVE FROM RAIN AND CLOUDS BEFORE A STRONG STORM FORCE FRONT
OVER THE BERING MAKES EASTWARD PROGRESS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
BESIDES RAIN AND CLOUDS...THIS FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A RETURN
TO NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN BY
SUNDAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL AND
DISCONNECTED FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC MOISTURE. ANOTHER WESTERN
BERING FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND BEGIN IMPACTING SOUTHWEST ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH DRIER WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 132 138 150 351 352. GALE 119 120 155 160
165 170 172 178 179 180 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...SB
LONG TERM...JA