Gale Warning 579, NWS Anchorage, AK

727 
FZAK52 PAFC 261141
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-270015-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR SHEMYA MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF SAINT PAUL AT 994
MB EARLY SUN...THEN MOVES INLAND NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON
AT 991 MB. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUN AND
CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ150-270015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ155-270015-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-270015-
BRISTOL BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-270015-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-270015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-270015-
UNALASKA BAY-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 2
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-270015-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-270015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-270015-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ175-270015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ176-270015-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ177-270015-
ADAK TO KISKA-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ178-270015-
KISKA TO ATTU-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT 30 KT FROM SHEMYA W. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 14
FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS. PATCHY MORNING FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ179-270015-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING NW 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ180-270015-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-270015-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ185-270015-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
519 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A
POTENT ARCTIC TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND FROM THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...
YIELDING MOIST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL BERING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PROMOTING ONE MORE MORNING OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON
SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY
UTILIZED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR ENHANCED DETAIL EARLY ON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GLOBAL MODELS TOWARDS THE MID TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH IT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER JET WILL DRIVE A DEEP UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA...WITH A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING INTO INTERIOR ALASKA FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY IS PRECIPITATION-TYPE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL LEAD TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH
WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL USHER WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL IS CURRENTLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW (AS INDICATED BY THE WET-BULB ZERO OF NEAR
SEA LEVEL ON THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING). THE WARM AIR WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...IT IS LOOKING LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE MAT-SU. STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK TURNOVER TO
RAIN...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
AREAS. MEANWHILE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN COPPER BASIN WILL STAY
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS EVENT...SO HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS.

THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST PRECIP ON THE EAST SIDES
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING. THUS MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES.
MOST PLACES WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS
TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OPENING THE WAY FOR WARM TROPICAL AIR
TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.
RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SPOTTY SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE ARCTIC LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS RAINFALL...AREAS OF FOG ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS...HOWEVER WITH THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER
VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WITH DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION THE MENTION OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA WAS REMOVED. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT TO ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR BRIEFLY SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN WET IN MOST AREAS INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA...CAUSING
FREEZING LEVELS TO RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR...KEEPING WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY TODAY...HOWEVER WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING ON
SATURDAY...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS LOW...NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MODELS WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SATURDAY. THEN AN ARCTIC TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER THE BERING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MAINLAND. THIS RESULTS IN SEVERAL PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST...WITH
THE FIRST BEING RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL MOVE THROUGH.

CURRENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN PUSHING
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE FROM THIS POINT ON...BUT HAVE RECENTLY COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE GULF AND
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BERING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
EVEN THOUGHT THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO WHEN THE
RAIN WILL LET UP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL USHER IN OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND...MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIR ENOUGH AGREEMENT WHERE
WE CAN SAY THAT THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL TAPER OFF
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LONG
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP/DK