Gale Warning 546, NWS Anchorage, AK

482 
FZAK62 PAFC 261141
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-270115-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 997 MB LOW NEAR 52N 174E MOVES TO 57N 173W AT 994 MB EARLY SUN...THEN
MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 165W SUN AFTERNOON AT 991 MB. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING SUN AND CONTINUES THROUGH MON.

$$

PKZ411-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND UP TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT S 10 TO 20 KT E OF 174W.
SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ413-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT...EXCEPT BECOMING NW 20 TO 35 KT W
OF 174W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-270115-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
341 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

489 
FZAK62 PAFC 262317
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271415-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 179W WILL DEEPEN TO 989 MB NEAR 60N 168W
SUN MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUN NIGHT TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MON.

$$

PKZ411-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW TO NW 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW TO N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

331 
FZAK62 PAFC 271129
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280100-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 172W MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 165W THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING SUN NIGHT
TO THE EASTERN BERING MON.

$$

PKZ411-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 1O TO 20 KT
E OF 175W IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 15 KT E OF
175W IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

355 
FZAK62 PAFC 272309
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281315-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES INTO THE GULF
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT
TO THE EASTERN BERING MON.

$$

PKZ411-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
519 AM AKDT FRI SEP 25 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A PATTERN CHANGE IS IMMINENT ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS A
POTENT ARCTIC TROUGH SWINGS OVER THE NORTHERN MAINLAND FROM THE
CHUKCHI SEA AND FLATTENS OUT THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA...
YIELDING MOIST ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL BERING INTO THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND. LIGHT RAIN IS SPREADING OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM
THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS PROMOTING ONE MORE MORNING OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BEFORE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON
SOME OF THE SMALLER SCALE DETAILS AS VARIOUS DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN THE BROAD WESTERLY FLOW MOVE OVERHEAD THROUGH SATURDAY. MAINLY
UTILIZED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS FOR ENHANCED DETAIL EARLY ON
BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO GLOBAL MODELS TOWARDS THE MID TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...BRINGING WARM AND MOIST AIR WITH IT. MEANWHILE...A STRONG
UPPER JET WILL DRIVE A DEEP UPPER LOW EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA...WITH A SHORT-WAVE DIGGING INTO INTERIOR ALASKA FOLLOWED
CLOSELY BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT. ONE OF THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES TODAY IS PRECIPITATION-TYPE. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN RANGES WILL LEAD TO A LEE SIDE TROUGH
WHICH WILL CAUSE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL USHER WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THE AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF SOUTHCENTRAL IS CURRENTLY
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW (AS INDICATED BY THE WET-BULB ZERO OF NEAR
SEA LEVEL ON THE 12Z ANCHORAGE SOUNDING). THE WARM AIR WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD. THEREFORE...IT IS LOOKING LIKE
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW BY LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NEARLY ALL OF THE MAT-SU. STILL EXPECT A FAIRLY QUICK TURNOVER TO
RAIN...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SOME VERY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THESE
AREAS. MEANWHILE...IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY
AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN COPPER BASIN WILL STAY
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THIS EVENT...SO HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH SNOW
AMOUNTS.

THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL WORK AGAINST PRECIP ON THE EAST SIDES
OF THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO DOWNSLOPE DRYING. THUS MOST OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL IN UPSLOPE AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE OF MOUNTAIN RANGES.
MOST PLACES WILL QUICKLY DRY OUT TONIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE EXITS
TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS WILL BE A SHORT-LIVED BREAK AS THE
UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD OPENING THE WAY FOR WARM TROPICAL AIR
TO STREAM NORTHWARD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARD MAINLAND ALASKA.
RAIN WILL INITIALLY BE SPOTTY SATURDAY...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BY EARLY SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE ARCTIC LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A
FRONTAL SYSTEM DRAPED OVER THE NORTHERN BERING INTO THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND WIDESPREAD
RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AHEAD OF
THIS RAINFALL...AREAS OF FOG ARE PRESENT THIS MORNING IN LOW
LYING AREAS...HOWEVER WITH THE RAIN BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA THIS SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER ALOFT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND LOWER
VALLEY TONIGHT...AND WITH DEEP WARM AIR ADVECTION THE MENTION OF
SNOW FOR THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM DELTA WAS REMOVED. THERE IS AN
OUTSIDE CHANCE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL REMAIN OVER THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY TONIGHT TO ALLOW RAIN TO MIX OR BRIEFLY SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW. TEMPERATURES HOWEVER WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING SO ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE MINIMAL.

THE FORECAST WILL THEN REMAIN WET IN MOST AREAS INTO THIS WEEKEND
AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE AREA...CAUSING
FREEZING LEVELS TO RISE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP ALL PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN. THIS LOW WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN INTERIOR...KEEPING WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL BRING RAIN TO THE REGION INTO THIS WEEKEND.
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA...WESTERLY WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
SOUTHERLY TODAY...HOWEVER WITH GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED
WIND GUSTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE OVERLY STRONG. THIS SYSTEM WILL
THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING ON
SATURDAY...SPREADING RAIN INTO THE SOUTHWEST COAST. ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THIS LOW...NORTHERLY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE WESTERN BERING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SIMILAR AMONGST THE VARIOUS
MODELS WITH A DISTURBANCE TRACKING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND
INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS/BERING SATURDAY. THEN AN ARCTIC TROUGH
DIGS DOWN OVER THE BERING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW FORMING OVER THE
NORTHERN BERING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL THEN TRACK OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK USHERING IN COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF THE MAJOR FEATURES AS THE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE
MAINLAND. THIS RESULTS IN SEVERAL PROBLEMS WITH THE FORECAST...WITH
THE FIRST BEING RAIN FOR THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
IT WILL RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOR WHEN THE
HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL MOVE THROUGH.

CURRENTLY WE ARE EXPECTING THE HEAVIER RAIN TO MAKE IT INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN PUSHING
INTO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE FROM THIS POINT ON...BUT HAVE RECENTLY COME INTO SLIGHTLY
BETTER AGREEMENT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS EASTWARD OVER THE GULF AND
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE BERING DURING THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
EVEN THOUGHT THERE IS STILL SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY AS TO WHEN THE
RAIN WILL LET UP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL USHER IN OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND...MODELS ARE NOW IN FAIR ENOUGH AGREEMENT WHERE
WE CAN SAY THAT THE RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND WILL TAPER OFF
BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT
THERE IS STILL LOW CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN LONG
ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE FOR MEASURABLE SNOW TO
MAKE IT INTO SOUTHCENTRAL.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...138.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP/DK