Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2015

Gale Warning 548, NWS Anchorage, AK

September 26, 2015

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Sep 26, 2015, 3:17 PM AKDT. It was in force for 37 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Sep 26, 2015, 3:17 PM AKDT (23:17 UTC)
Expired
Sep 28, 2015, 3:52 AM AKDT
In force
37 hr
Issued by
NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

489 
FZAK62 PAFC 262317
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-271415-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 994 MB LOW NEAR 56N 179W WILL DEEPEN TO 989 MB NEAR 60N 168W
SUN MORNING THEN MOVE INLAND SUN NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILD FROM
THE WESTERN BERING SEA SUN NIGHT TO THE EASTERN BERING SEA MON.

$$

PKZ411-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN
SHOWERS.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ413-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING SW TO NW 15 TO 30 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW TO N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. PATCHY FOG.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

PKZ414-271415-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
317 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$
3 follow-up statements
331 
FZAK62 PAFC 271129
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-280100-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 991 MB LOW NEAR 58N 172W MOVES INLAND NEAR 60N 165W THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING SUN NIGHT
TO THE EASTERN BERING MON.

$$

PKZ411-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 20 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ412-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 1O TO 20 KT
E OF 175W IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.

$$

PKZ413-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 TO 35 KT...EXCEPT SW 15 KT E OF
175W IN THE MORNING. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ414-280100-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 AM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$
355 
FZAK62 PAFC 272309
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-281315-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A WEATHER FRONT MOVES OVER THE EASTERN BERING MOVES INTO THE GULF
LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT
TO THE EASTERN BERING MON.

$$

PKZ411-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-281315-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
309 PM AKDT SUN SEP 27 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$
193 
FZAK62 PAFC 281152
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-290130-
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A FRONT OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES INTO THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WESTERN BERING TONIGHT TO
THE EASTERN BERING MON. A 984 MB NORTHWEST PACIFIC LOW MOVES TO
53N 162E EARLY WED.

$$

PKZ411-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 27 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ412-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.

$$

PKZ413-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.TODAY...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ414-290130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
352 AM AKDT MON SEP 28 2015

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.TUE...N TO W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Sep 26, 5:13 AM AKDT, 10 hours 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 26, 5:13 AM AKDT, 10 hours 4 minutes before
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
513 AM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE REGION HAS TRANSITIONED TO A MUCH WETTER PATTERN THIS MORNING
AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND IN FAST
ZONAL FLOW BENEATH A 120 KT UPPER LEVEL JET TO THE SOUTH OF AN
ARCTIC TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
MOST WIDESPREAD RAIN IS FOCUSED ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BERING SEA INTO THE
SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...WITH MORE SHOWERY CONDITIONS PREVALENT OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RESPECT TO THE SYNOPTIC DETAILS AS THE REGION REMAINS IN A RAINY
PATTERN WITH BROAD WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
SUNDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AHEAD OF A SHARP TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE
NORTHERN BERING OUT OF EASTERN RUSSIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTWARD IT WILL BRING THE
MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA. THIS WILL
GET ENHANCED SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FURTHER BACKS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP ABUNDANT RAINFALL OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL BE OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS. ON SUNDAY A
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO COOK INLET AND INCREASE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM. THIS WILL BRING IN THE ONE
POTENTIAL PITFALL FOR THE ANCHORAGE, MATANUSKA VALLEY, AND WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA. IF THERE IS ENOUGH SOUTHEAST FLOW IT COULD CUT
OFF THE RAINFALL BUT THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE SHOULD BE MORE THAN ENOUGH TO KEEP THE RAINFALL GOING
ONCE IT BEGINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE REMNANTS OF A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL MOVE
EAST AS IT DISSIPATES TODAY...BRINGING CONTINUED RAIN TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THIS EVENING. MOST AREAS MAY SEE A SLIGHT BREAK IN
THE RAIN LATE THIS EVENING AS THE TROUGH DISSIPATES AHEAD OF THE
MUCH STRONGER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. DEEP AND
MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ACCOMPANY THIS NEXT SYSTEM....PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD AND PERSISTENT WETTING RAINS THROUGHOUT THE REGION INTO
MONDAY. THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO BRING UPSLOPE CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN FACES OF THE THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN BRISTOL
BAY...WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN LOW AN ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH STRETCHING INTO
THE EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP RAINY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND. AS PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING LOW...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR FROM THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS INTO AKPEN BEFORE DIMINISHING ON SUNDAY MORNING. BEHIND
THIS LOW...GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WESTERN BERING WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THESE WINDS WILL
THEN SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL BERING ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS TO
MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN ARCTIC TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN BERING DROPS DOWN INTO THE
CENTRAL BERING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED FRONT AT THE
SURFACE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HANDLE THESE FEATURES SLIGHTLY
BETTER...GIVING A SLIGHT BOOST TO FORECAST CONFIDENCE REGARDING
THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND THE ONSET OF THE COLDER
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK. RIDGING OVER THE BERING ON WEDNESDAY
WILL TRACK FURTHER EASTWARD INTO THE GULF BY THURSDAY...BRINGING
IN WARMER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH MORE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. FURTHER WEST...A RAPIDLY
INTENSIFYING NORTH PACIFIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL TRACK
INTO THE WESTERN BERING WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHERN BERING SEA...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWESTERLY GALE FORCE WINDS AND RAIN THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL BERING/ALEUTIANS THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE INLAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MAINLAND Y FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE BERING SEA
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...KEEPING FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOW
IN THIS FEATURE.

THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE THE INTERIOR WILL KEEP WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA BY TUESDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL WILL FALL AS RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...WHEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES AND BEGINS TO BRING IN
COLDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. DURING THIS TIME-FRAME THERE WILL BE
LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE REGION BUT STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG
THE WRANGELL MOUNTAINS IN THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...CB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DEK
LONG TERM...TP/PD

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 26, 2:40 PM AKDT, 37 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
240 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

AKZ101-111-121-145-280300-
ANCHORAGE-MATANUSKA VALLEY-WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA-SUSITNA VALLEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...PALMER...WASILLA...SUTTON...CHICKALOON...KENAI...
SOLDOTNA...HOMER...COOPER LANDING...TALKEETNA...WILLOW...CANTWELL
240 PM AKDT SAT SEP 26 2015

...UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO BRING THE THREAT FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO PARTS OF SOUTHCENTRAL TUESDAY...

AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ORIGINATING FROM
SIBERIA WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLD AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN TEMPERATURES THAT FALL THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE
IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW DOWN TO
SEA LEVEL FROM THE NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY SOUTHWARD TO THE KENAI
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE ON THE
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF ACCUMULATING SNOW GIVEN DIFFERENCES IN THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS.

REGARDLESS...EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUCH AN EARLY SEASON
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS SOMEWHAT RARE. FOR HISTORICAL
CONTEXT...THE EARLIEST RECORDED MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT THE
ANCHORAGE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT (GREATER THAN A TRACE) WAS THE
21ST OF SEPTEMBER 1996 (A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SNOW FELL THAT DAY).

DETAILS FOR TUESDAY WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...SO STAY TUNED FOR CONTINUED FORECAST UPDATES.

AHSENMACHER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Sep 26, 3:41 AM AKDTGale WarningAFC35 hr
Sep 26, 3:41 AM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC12 hr
Sep 26, 3:17 PM AKDTSmall Craft AdvisoryAFC36 hr
Sep 26, 3:22 PM AKDTGale WarningAFC24 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2015Every gale warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.