Gale Warning 459, NWS Anchorage, AK

417 
FZAK51 PAFC 081147
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090045-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. A 991 MB LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO 60 NM NORTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
1000 MB TUE NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-090045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-090045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-090045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER
WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-090045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2
FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-090045-
PORT VALDEZ-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-090045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-090045-
VALDEZ ARM-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-090045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-090045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-090045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-090045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-090045-
CHINIAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-090045-
MARMOT BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-090045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-090045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-090045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-090045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
347 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

030 
FZAK51 PAFC 082104 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

UPDATED AREA 141

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-090315-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. A 991 MB LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO 60 NM NORTHWEST OF SITKINAK AT
1000 MB TUE NIGHT.


$$

PKZ119-090315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-090315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 35 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-090315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-090315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-090315-
PORT VALDEZ-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT.
SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-090315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 15 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-090315-
VALDEZ ARM-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TODAY...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-090315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.  SEAS
2 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-090315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-090315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ132-090315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
6 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-090315-
CHINIAK BAY-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-090315-
MARMOT BAY-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-090315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-090315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-090315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 5 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-090315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
104 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

533 
FZAK51 PAFC 082306
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-091145-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE
NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW NEAR PORT HEIDEN TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO
75 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY AT 1005 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-091145-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT BUILDING TO 13 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ120-091145-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-091145-
RESURRECTION BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT
SUBSIDING. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.WED...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-091145-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-091145-
PORT VALDEZ-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT SUBSIDING.
RAIN.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-091145-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE WIND 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-091145-
VALDEZ ARM-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-091145-
PASSAGE CANAL-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-091145-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
7 FT BUILDING 14 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT NE 35 KT NEAR THE WESTERN COAST. SEAS
11 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-091145-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT INCREASING 40 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT
BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-091145-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 BUILDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT EXCEPT SW 30 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 10 FT EXCEPT 15 FT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ136-091145-
CHINIAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-091145-
MARMOT BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-091145-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-091145-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT
BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ140-091145-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-091145-
KACHEMAK BAY-
306 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT.
RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS IN A RAPID
TRANSITION MODE FROM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO PROGRESSIVE AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DEAMPLIFY. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC JET CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING TOWARD THE ALCAN AND
SPREADING MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MIDDLETON RADAR IS IS
PICKING THIS UP AS A BROAD REGION OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE CONTINUES TO BE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW RETROGRADING INTO FAR EASTERN SIBERIA
FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION NEAR THE BERING STRAIT YESTERDAY. NEAR
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...AN "ANCHORING" POLAR LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MONDAY.
FINALLY...A ZONAL MOVING SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PHASE WITH THE SIBERIAN
LOW...EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW/CLOSED LOW/WAVE MERGER
ALOFT. THIS TRIPLE MERGER IS...TO SAY THE LEAST... RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO CLOUDIER AND COOLER ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A SHORT REPRIEVE
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER IN THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM KODIAK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL TEND TO REMAIN DRIER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OWING TO A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WITH A BUILDING COASTAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE COPPER BASIN
MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY EVEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALL THE WAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY
DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE NUMERICAL
MODELS SIMULATE THE PHASING OF THE NPAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
SIBERIAN LOW. THIS THEN RESULTS IN SLIGHT TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED INLAND PRECIPITATION PATTERN. FOR NOW...A GENERAL
APPROACH FAVORING THE ECMWF AND NAM WAS FAVORED AS THEY DEPICT A
SIMILAR LOW TRACK. THE NAM WIND FIELDS WERE FAVORED...ALTHOUGH THE
NAM PRECIP FIELDS MAY BE OVERLY DRY EVEN IN THE MIDST OF A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN. WITH THAT SAID...MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WERE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTH AND ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN MANY PLACES AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE STABLE ON MON AS COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE GULF PUSHES
THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. WIND PATTERNS WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK
GAP FLOWS WILL STILL HOLD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

A WEATHER FRONT STARTS ROLLING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT SHOULD BRING GALES TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF. THE COASTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
AND COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR PRODUCE BRISK
GAP FLOWS IN THE FAVORED AREAS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/KNIK
ARM/COPPER RIVER) BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERALL WILL SEE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAINLAND TODAY AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES ONSHORE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THAT AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE. SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY
COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE/ALASKA
PENINSULA. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE ALEUTIANS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE CHAIN TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST. CLOSE BEHIND...A STRONGER FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MID WEEK. A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
ALASKA/NORTHWEST CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSH THE RIDGE
FURTHER EASTWARD. WEAK RIDGING THEN TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT IS HALTED BY A POLAR TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AS IT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING IN FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC...PUSHING THE WEAK BERING RIDGE BACK OVER THE
GULF/SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A
DECAYING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF.
DURING THIS TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CHUGACH AND
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL KEEP AREAS JUST WEST OF THE RANGES DOWNSLOPED
FROM MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND COPPER RIVER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ARE
EXPECTED TO BEND DOWN INLET AND STAY OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
(DIURNAL HEATING) OVER ANCHORAGE OR THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY AT
THIS TIME. OUT WEST...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK...KEEPING
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS MID WEEK...TAPERING OFF MOST OF THE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAINY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THE MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. THE GFS HAS STARTED TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HELPED RAISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP