Gale Warning 452, NWS Anchorage, AK

295 
FZAK61 PAFC 081135
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-090130-
335 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA
THIS MORNING...THEN MOVE TO THE CENTRAL GULF BY TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT. A 991 MB LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL TRACK TO 58N 156W AT 1000 MB TUE NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-090130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-090130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 AM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT SE INCREASING TO 35 KT W OF
148W THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 11 FT THIS
AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.

$$

285 
FZAK61 PAFC 082300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
300 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-091330-
300 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE TO
THE CENTRAL GULF MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN GULF TUE
NIGHT. A 992 MB LOW NEAR 57N 159W TUE AFTERNOON WILL MOVE TO 58N
150W AT 1005 MB WED AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-091330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
300 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-091330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
300 PM AKDT MON JUN 8 2015

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT.

$$

595 
FZAK61 PAFC 091149
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 AM AKDT TUE JUN 9 2015

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-100130-
349 AM AKDT TUE JUN 9 2015
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A WEATHER FRONT IN THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL DISSIPATE
IN THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A 986 MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL TRACK TO 57N 156W AT 998 MB TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WED NIGHT.


$$

PKZ351-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
349 AM AKDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-100130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
349 AM AKDT TUE JUN 9 2015

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
357 AM AKDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS IN A RAPID
TRANSITION MODE FROM HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TO PROGRESSIVE AS THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN AND DEAMPLIFY. A WEAK LOW ALONG THE PACIFIC JET CAN BE SEEN
ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY TRACKING TOWARD THE ALCAN AND
SPREADING MOISTURE TOWARD THE GULF COAST. MIDDLETON RADAR IS IS
PICKING THIS UP AS A BROAD REGION OF RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FEATURE OF SIGNIFICANCE CONTINUES TO BE
A CLOSED UPPER LOW...NOW RETROGRADING INTO FAR EASTERN SIBERIA
FROM ITS PREVIOUS LOCATION NEAR THE BERING STRAIT YESTERDAY. NEAR
THE ARCTIC CIRCLE...AN "ANCHORING" POLAR LOW WILL MERGE WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SIBERIA TODAY AND MONDAY.
FINALLY...A ZONAL MOVING SUBTROPICAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EAST OFF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL PHASE WITH THE SIBERIAN
LOW...EFFECTIVELY RESULTING IN A CLOSED LOW/CLOSED LOW/WAVE MERGER
ALOFT. THIS TRIPLE MERGER IS...TO SAY THE LEAST... RELATIVELY
IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL BRING A RETURN TO CLOUDIER AND COOLER ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AFTER A SHORT REPRIEVE
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER IN THIS PATTERN WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA...AND ACROSS
COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM KODIAK TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. INTERIOR
LOCATIONS WILL TEND TO REMAIN DRIER ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL OWING TO A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE DRYING PATTERN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN. WITH A BUILDING COASTAL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SOME PORTIONS OF THE COPPER BASIN
MAY SEE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY EVEN IN
THE PRESENCE OF HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN ALL THE WAY THROUGH LATE WEEK BEFORE THEY
DIVERGE OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH SMALLER SCALE DETAILS...THERE ARE
SOME SLIGHT BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE WAY THE NUMERICAL
MODELS SIMULATE THE PHASING OF THE NPAC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH THE
SIBERIAN LOW. THIS THEN RESULTS IN SLIGHT TRACK DIFFERENCES OF THE
SURFACE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND THE
ASSOCIATED INLAND PRECIPITATION PATTERN. FOR NOW...A GENERAL
APPROACH FAVORING THE ECMWF AND NAM WAS FAVORED AS THEY DEPICT A
SIMILAR LOW TRACK. THE NAM WIND FIELDS WERE FAVORED...ALTHOUGH THE
NAM PRECIP FIELDS MAY BE OVERLY DRY EVEN IN THE MIDST OF A
FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PATTERN. WITH THAT SAID...MOST INLAND
LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL WERE TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS
FAVORABLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FROM
ANCHORAGE NORTH AND ACROSS THE COPPER BASIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2...SUN AND
MON)...GENERALLY BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT IN MANY PLACES AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE
TALKEETNA MOUNTAINS AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES ACROSS THESE AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE STABLE ON MON AS COOLER AIR COMING IN FROM THE GULF PUSHES
THE THERMAL TROUGH FURTHER NORTH. WIND PATTERNS WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH SOME WEAK
GAP FLOWS WILL STILL HOLD OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN.

A WEATHER FRONT STARTS ROLLING NORTH ACROSS THE GULF ON MON
AFTERNOON/NIGHT. IT SHOULD BRING GALES TO THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
GULF. THE COASTAL RIDGE WILL BUILD WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
AND COMBINED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH IN THE INTERIOR PRODUCE BRISK
GAP FLOWS IN THE FAVORED AREAS (TURNAGAIN ARM/PORTAGE VALLEY/KNIK
ARM/COPPER RIVER) BEGINNING MON AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH
TYPICAL DOWNSLOPE CONDITIONS TO THE LEE OF THE CHUGACH AND KENAI
MOUNTAINS. AS SUCH...THE COPPER RIVER BASIN OVERALL WILL SEE
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND COMBINED WITH STRONG GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS COULD BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAINLAND TODAY AS
A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PUSHES ONSHORE. A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OUT OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA COAST
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THAT AREA. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE KUSKOKWIM
MOUNTAINS AND ALASKA RANGE. SOME AREAS OF INTERIOR BRISTOL BAY
COULD SEE LIGHT SHOWERS AS WELL AS THE ALEUTIAN RANGE/ALASKA
PENINSULA. A FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE ALEUTIANS
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT AND DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO SKIRT THE CHAIN TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
THROUGH THE ALASKA PENINSULA BRINGING A QUICK SHOT OF RAIN FROM
WEST TO EAST. CLOSE BEHIND...A STRONGER FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHERN BERING SEA...PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH
LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
A LONGWAVE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS EARLY
IN THE WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND BECOME MORE
NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND BY MID WEEK. A RIDGE
OVER THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
ALASKA/NORTHWEST CANADA THROUGH MID WEEK...AS A SERIES OF WEAK
WAVES ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND PUSH THE RIDGE
FURTHER EASTWARD. WEAK RIDGING THEN TRIES TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT IS HALTED BY A POLAR TROUGH STRETCHING DOWN OVER THE
CENTRAL BERING FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH THEN REDEVELOPS OVER THE
WESTERN BERING AS IT COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LOW TRACKING IN FROM
THE NORTH PACIFIC...PUSHING THE WEAK BERING RIDGE BACK OVER THE
GULF/SOUTHEAST ALASKA. THIS PATTERN IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
THAT WILL SET UP OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND
WILL KEEP SHOWERY CONDITIONS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM. THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AS A
DECAYING LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT TRACK INTO THE THE WESTERN GULF.
DURING THIS TIME...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CHUGACH AND
ALEUTIAN RANGE WILL KEEP AREAS JUST WEST OF THE RANGES DOWNSLOPED
FROM MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION. GAP WINDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST AND COPPER RIVER WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AS RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE GULF EARLY IN THE WEEK. WINDS THROUGH TURNAGAIN ARM ARE
EXPECTED TO BEND DOWN INLET AND STAY OUT OF THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...AS THERE WILL BE A LIMITED AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER
(DIURNAL HEATING) OVER ANCHORAGE OR THE LOWER SUSITNA VALLEY AT
THIS TIME. OUT WEST...A LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL WEAKEN
AND TRACK EASTWARD OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA BY MID WEEK...KEEPING
SHOWERY CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ALEUTIANS AND
BERING THROUGH MID WEEK. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS BACK OVER THE
BERING/ALEUTIANS MID WEEK...TAPERING OFF MOST OF THE SHOWERY
CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. RAINY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PICK BACK UP OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC.

THE MODELS WERE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN MENTIONED ABOVE. THE GFS HAS STARTED TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...WHICH HELPED RAISE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGHER THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING OVERALL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JRA
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RMC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MTL
LONG TERM...TP