Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2014

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tucson, AZ

July 5, 2014

NWS Tucson, AZ issued this special weather statement at Jul 5, 2014, 3:55 PM MST. It was in force for 35 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 5, 2014, 3:55 PM MST (22:55 UTC)
Expired: Jul 5, 2014, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 35 min
Issued by: NWS Tucson, AZ

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 16 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tuscon, AZ (KDMA), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 26 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 213 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -113 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1685 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -14 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 9 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 5, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 5, 2:26 PM MST, 1 hour 29 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
226 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING LEADS TO A DOWNWARD TREND THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP MAINLY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE AID OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING NORTH OUT OF SONORA MEXICO. THE AIR MASS
REMAINED VERY MOIST AND THE STEERING FLOW WAS LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SO THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STRONG WINDS WITH THE HEAVIER
DOWNPOURS. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD PRETTY MUCH DIMINISH AFTER SUNDOWN
AND AS THE IMPULSE MOVES OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA. SIMILAR COVERAGE
EXPECTED TOMORROW...BUT THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO
ADVERTISE A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING THROUGH SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ON
MONDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF RAIN
MONDAY NIGHT. THAT SAID...WILL KEEP THE TREND OF INCREASING POP
VALUES FOR MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY AND SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE
LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR A DECENT COVERAGE IN
STORMS AS THE IMPULSE ROTATES OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND TAKES A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. BY NEXT WEEKEND
THOUGH...MODELS HINT AT THE FLOW PATTERN BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STARTING SATURDAY INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THROUGH 07/00Z.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THRU
06/04Z WITH FOCUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN PIMA COUNTY.  DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS ALOFT SLOW AND ERRATIC STORM MOTION EXCEPT WHERE
DRIVEN BY STRONG OUTFLOWS.  OTHERWISE FEW-SCT080 SCT-BKN120.  WIDELY
SCT THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING AFT 06/19Z...AGAIN MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAINS.  WINDS VARIABLE TO 10 KTS EXCEPT VCNTY THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING.  WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT...THE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL.  EXPECTING
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS AGAIN SUNDAY...PRIMARILY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  MONDAY AND TUESDAY EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...THEN CHANCES DIMINISHING SOME WEDNESDAY
ONWARD.  HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN
DIMINISH A BIT THEREAFTER.  WINDS THROUGH NEXT WEEK WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF STRONG GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS UNDER AND AROUND ANY THUNDERSTORMS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 5, 3:55 PM MST, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
355 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

AZZ503-504-507-513-514-052330-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-SANTA CATALINA AND RINCON
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MOUNT LEMMON/SUMMERHAVEN AZ-TUCSON METRO AREA
INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND
ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
355 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM
MST...

AT 344 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 18 MILES WEST OF BENSON...OR 25 MILES EAST OF
GREEN VALLEY.  THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH A STRONG
OUTFLOW MOVING TOWARD THE TUCSON AREA.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM ACROSS THE
METRO AREA. HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE SOUTH AND EAST OF
VAIL.

AREAS AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...TUCSON...VAIL...RITA RANCH...
SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK EAST...DAVIS-MONTHAN AIR FORCE BASE...TUCSON
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...SAN XAVIER MISSION...SOUTH TUCSON...SEVEN
FALLS...SABINO CANYON AND CATALINA FOOTHILLS.

LAT...LON 3185 11071 3193 11116 3243 11086 3213 11047
      3213 11045 3185 11047
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 180DEG 0KT 3198 11062

CERNIGLIA

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 4, 5:11 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	TWC	Cochise	49 min
Jul 4, 5:41 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima, Pinal	3 hr
Jul 5, 11:53 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	52 min
Jul 5, 4:18 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	42 min
Jul 5, 4:38 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	TWC	Pima	82 min
Jul 5, 4:56 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TWC	Pima	49 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2014 Every special weather statement in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.