Severe Thunderstorm Warning 5, NWS Tucson, AZ

002 
WWUS55 KTWC 051922
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1222 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

AZC019-051945-
/O.CON.KTWC.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140705T1945Z/
PIMA AZ-
1222 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 PM MST
FOR WEST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...

AT 1215 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL
MONUMENT...OR 55 MILES WEST OF SELLS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAIN WHICH COULD LIMIT
VISIBILITIES OR LEAD TO FLOODING. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH
RAPIDLY FLOWING WATER.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 11291 3222 11295 3222 11267 3193 11259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 075DEG 6KT 3203 11281

$$

428 
WWUS55 KTWC 051940
SVSTWC

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1240 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

AZC019-051951-
/O.EXP.KTWC.SV.W.0005.000000T0000Z-140705T1945Z/
PIMA AZ-
1240 PM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1245 PM MST...

LAT...LON 3194 11291 3222 11295 3222 11267 3193 11259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1941Z 075DEG 6KT 3202 11285

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 AM MST SAT JUL 5 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO HELP ENHANCE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING LEADS TO A DOWNWARD TREND THE SECOND HALF
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH RADAR DEPICTING SOME AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS THIS MORNING. SKIES SHOULD PARTIALLY CLEAR
BY NOON MST LEADING TO ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS GOING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE TUCSON MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A VERY WEAK AND VARIABLE STEERING FLOW IN
PLACE TODAY. THUS...NOT EXPECTING ANY ORGANIZED STORMS EVEN THOUGH
RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN PRETTY DECENT ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENT
FORECAST APPEARED TO HANDLE THE RECENT TRENDS AND THINKING...SO NO
UPDATES ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL
SECTIONS OF MORE DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED
AREAS OF LIGHT -SHRA. CLOUDS BREAKING UP LATER THIS MORNING ALLOWING
FOR MORE SUN TO WORK ON MOIST ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED -SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO
BE AS HIGH AS 50 KTS. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
ACROSS SE ARIZONA TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLD
-SHRA. CLOUD DECKS NEXT 24 HOURS WILL MAINLY BE AROUND 8-15K FT AGL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING ALONG WITH
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE ALLOWING FOR
DAYTIME HEATING OF MOIST ATMOSPHERE. SO EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THEREAFTER...MOISTURE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...CONTINUING SHOWERS ALONG SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
EAST OF TUCSON THIS MORNING. DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE RANGING FROM 1.7
INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER IN WESTERN AREAS DOWN TO ABOUT 1.3 NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. INTERESTING THINGS HAPPEN ALONG SUCH
GRADIENTS...HOWEVER...CONSIDERING WE HAVE LOST OUR MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TO HELP KEEP THINGS ORGANIZED...WE NEED A LITTLE SOLAR INSOLATION TO
HELP. CONSIDERABLE DEBRIS PUSHING IN ACROSS THE BORDER FROM EARLIER
COMPLEX IN SONORA CAUSING PROBLEMS WITH THAT THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
TEND TO FOCUS ON MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. ANY ORGANIZED OUTFLOW CAN THEN PUSH STORMS DEEPER INTO
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT THESE AREAS WILL STRUGGLE ON THEIR
OWN. WITH THIS MUCH MOISTURE IN PLACE...ANY STORMS WE CAN MANAGE
WILL BE PRETTY WET.

EVEN WITH A VERY NICE MOISTURE PROFILE IN PLACE LESS ACTIVITY
EXPECTED SUNDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ON MOUNTAIN AND BORDER AREAS AGAIN.
FOR LACK OF A LARGE SCALE TRIGGER AND MODEST FLOW REGIME.

ECMWF CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONG IMPULSE ROTATING AROUND THE
HIGH FROM THE EAST AND INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY. THIS WOULD
SERVE AS A SIGNIFICANT TRIGGER FOR ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY ONCE
AGAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH MORE OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY SUPPORTED AS
WELL. AS I HAVE MENTIONED BEFORE HRRR/NAMDNG5/ECMWF ARE MY DEFAULT
FIRST GUESSES. A REASONABLE RESOLUTION CONSIDERING THE PATTERN...WE
WILL GO WITH A 70 PERCENT ECMWF WEIGHTED FORECAST.

AFTER THAT THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN BECOMES A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE
FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...WITH FIRST AN NVA RIDGE BEHIND THE IMPULSE
AND THEN A SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW PUSHING DEEPER
MOISTURE A LITTLE FURTHER EASTWARD. AFTER A BUSY MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WE ARE PULLING BACK A BIT ON THE FORECAST THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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