Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
652 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH GREATER CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH
THE REGION. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
PRECIP...WITH PERIODS OF VFR BETWEEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR CEILINGS SHOULD ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH BY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SHOULD SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014/

DISCUSSION...
MESONET/RADAR CONFIRMS SWATH OF AT LEAST 2-3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
NEAR THE KS BORDER SINCE MIDNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL AMOUNTS OVER 4
INCHES LIKELY. QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT STRETCHES ACROSS NE OK
INTO WCNTRL OK...WITH 25-35KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING
ONGOING CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN/LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS NEAR AND N OF
THIS BOUNDARY. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SLOWLY S
THIS MORNING...WITH CONVECTION/HEAVY RAIN TRANSITIONING FARTHER S BY
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS...HAVE EXPANDED THE
WATCH A BIT FARTHER S INTO NE OK AND E INTO PARTS OF NW AR.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHIFTING INTO SE OK/WCNTRL AR. SHOWERS WILL
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF ON SATURDAY AS UPPER TROF SHIFTS E AND WEAKENS.
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER/SFC RIDGING WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN...WITH HIGHS
IN THE 50S FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT SE OK/WCNTRL AR.

EXPECT A BRIEF BREAK ON SUNDAY BEFORE STORM CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY
NIGHT. A POWERFUL UPPER JET IS FORECAST TO DIVE THROUGH THE PAC
NW...CARVING OUT A SHARP TROF THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE
ECMWF/GFS/CMC OVER THE FASTER NAM...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF
STORMS FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH SOME SEVERE WEATHER...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

DRIER/MILDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN WAKE OF EXITING UPPER LOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   69  49  59  50 /  90  70  50  20
FSM   80  60  63  55 /  80  90  80  40
MLC   84  53  61  52 /  80  80  60  20
BVO   63  49  57  48 /  90  70  50  20
FYV   77  52  59  51 /  90  80  70  40
BYV   77  49  57  49 /  90  80  80  40
MKO   76  52  59  52 /  90  80  60  20
MIO   63  48  57  49 /  90  70  50  20
F10   77  51  59  51 /  80  80  50  20
HHW   86  61  68  54 /  50  90  70  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
516 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-102230-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
516 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412 SPREADING
		SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINED POSITIONED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA KANSAS
BORDER. HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEEN COMMON WITH THIS ACTIVITY...
CREATING POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
AND SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING
THE DAY TODAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD. THE CORRIDOR
OF HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT DURING
THE DAY ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES REMAIN POSSIBLE AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS ALSO A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
FRONT TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD SHIFT
SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE HAIL AND
WIND THREAT.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL...HEAVY
	 RAIN POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SATURDAY MORNING...WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES QUICKLY RETURN SUNDAY AND INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTERACTING
WITH THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH AN ADDITIONAL FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. STAY TUNED TO LATER UPDATES AS THIS TIME NEARS. PLEASANT
FALL WEATHER WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
610 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OKZ064-101145-
CREEK OK-
610 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN CREEK

AT 610 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 4 MILES NORTHWEST OF OILTON TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
SHAMROCK...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BRISTOW...SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...
OILTON...SILVER CITY AND MANNFORD.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3583 9662 3616 9663 3616 9630 3608 9630
      3608 9627 3607 9626 3580 9635 3581 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1110Z 274DEG 37KT 3612 9660 3584 9671

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OKZ054-059>061-064>066-101215-
CREEK OK-OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-PAWNEE OK-ROGERS OK-TULSA
OK-
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 715 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK...NORTHWESTERN OKMULGEE...SOUTHEASTERN OSAGE...EASTERN
     PAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN ROGERS AND TULSA

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHWESTERN OKFUSKEE

AT 635 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WALNUT CREEK STATE PARK TO 7 MILES WEST OF WELTY...
MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS INCLUDE...TULSA...LIBERTY...GRAY...OKFUSKEE...WELTY...
PRESTON...BEGGS...HECTORVILLE...SAND SPRINGS...BIXBY...JENKS...
OWASSO...GLENPOOL...SPERRY...WESTPORT...BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...
DEPEW...MOUNDS...KIEFER...MANNFORD...KELLYVILLE...SAPULPA...WALNUT
CREEK STATE PARK...OKMULGEE STATE PARK...KEYSTONE STATE PARK...TULSA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT AND JENKS RIVERSIDE AIRPORT.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DIME SIZE HAIL AND
WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

LAT...LON 3632 9634 3630 9572 3558 9601 3557 9663
      3565 9663
TIME...MOT...LOC 1135Z 271DEG 34KT 3623 9626 3565 9651

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
746 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0742 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 E GRAVETTE            36.42N 94.44W
10/10/2014                   BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            FLOODING REPORTED SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 72 NEAR STAGECOACH
            ROAD.

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
747 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      LANGLEY                 36.46N 95.05W
10/10/2014                   MAYES              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            STREET FLOODING WITH EXTREME PONDING ON ROADWAY BETWEEN
            LOCUST GROVE TO LANGLEY

&&

JDS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
749 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
10/10/2014                   MAYES              OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 69 IN PRYOR. SOCIAL MEDIA
            REPORT WITH PICTURE

&&

JDS

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