Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
651 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS/THUNDER NEAR/ALONG KS/OK & MO/AR BORDER WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS OVERNIGHT AS COLD FRONT WESTERN OK
SW MO SAGS SOUTH. NE OK TAF SITES KBVO KTUL KRVS LIKELY
VCTS OR WITH TSRA GENERALLY IN 07Z-15Z PERIOD. NW AR TAF
SITES KXNA KFYV LIKELY VCTS OR TSRA GENERALLY IN 09Z-17Z.
THUNDER LESS LIKELY AT TAF SITES KMLC AND KFSM...PROBABLY
LIMITED TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 17Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS/
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR-MASS COUPLED WITH MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD
ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH WIND/HAIL.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
LIFTS INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER LOW. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE ISSUED FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE OK/KS BOARDER WHERE THE
HEAVIER RAIN IS EXPECTED...INCLUDING MODESTLY LOWER FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE.

RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS COLD FRONT PUSHES
INTO FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS
FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA EARLY SATURDAY AS SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS IN
RESPONSE TO MAIN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
HIGH THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE NORTH OF STALLED FRONT.

BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BEFORE
STRONG UPPER TROUGH DIVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BECOMING
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH SYSTEM BEFORE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS EAST MONDAY EVENING. FLOODING AGAIN COULD
BECOME AN ISSUE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE HEAVIER
RAIN WITH THE INITIAL FRI/SAT RAIN EVENT. MILD/DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEHIND DEPARTING SYSTEM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   64  68  48  59 /  80  90  80  50
FSM   67  81  60  64 /  40  80  90  80
MLC   70  83  52  63 /  30  80  90  50
BVO   59  63  48  56 /  90  90  70  50
FYV   64  77  52  60 /  80  90  80  80
BYV   64  76  49  57 /  80  90  80  80
MKO   66  78  51  59 /  50  90  80  60
MIO   57  64  47  57 /  90  90  80  70
F10   68  78  50  59 /  50  80  80  50
HHW   69  86  61  72 /  20  50  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM FRIDAY FOR OKZ054-OKZ055-OKZ056-
     OKZ057-OKZ058.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...21

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
840 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-101000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
840 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...HEAVY RAINS ALONG WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THE SEVERE RISK
REMAINS LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH HAS EITHER
BEEN OBSERVED OR ESTIMATED BY RADAR IN SOME AREAS NEAR THE KANSAS
BORDER.

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A FRONT WEST OF THE REGION AND
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY GROW INTO A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX AND
MOVE EAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LIFT FROM
AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS A CORRIDOR OF HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS HEAVY RAIN COULD
CAUSE SOME FLOODING ISSUES...ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY TRACK OVER AREAS
THAT HAVE ALREADY PICKED UP OVER AN INCH OF RAIN THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS OCCURRING WILL BE IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE
KANSAS BORDER.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY THRU MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...

A COMPLEX OF HEAVY RAIN AND STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FRIDAY MORNING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS COMPLEX WILL SHIFT
EAST AND SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTH. THE CORRIDOR OF
HEAVIER RAIN POTENTIAL WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH THE FRONT ON FRIDAY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES MAY CARRYOVER INTO FRIDAY AS WELL. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS...WITH A
LIMITED SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT. STORM CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY
END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER STORM SYSTEM
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

A VERY ENERGETIC UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIVE DOWN INTO
THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
QUICKLY AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINE THAT WITH STRONG FORCING
ALONG THE FRONT AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND YOU HAVE A
RECIPE FOR HEIGHTENED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE TIME OF DAY. HEAVY
RAINS FROM THIS SYSTEM MAY EXACERBATE ANY ONGOING ISSUES FROM THE
PREVIOUS STORM...SO THERE IS AT LEAST SOME FLOODING POTENTIAL. STAY
TUNED TO LATER UPDATES AS THIS TIME NEARS. PLEASANT FALL WEATHER
WILL RETURN BY TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
910 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

ARZ010-019-OKZ069-100245-
ADAIR OK-CRAWFORD AR-WASHINGTON AR-
910 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN CRAWFORD AND SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN ADAIR

AT 910 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
ODELL...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...ODELL...BLACKBURN...STRICKLER...MORROW...LEE
CREEK AND DEVILS DEN STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3583 9421 3563 9429 3573 9456 3587 9451
TIME...MOT...LOC 0210Z 285DEG 16KT 3577 9445

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
912 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

ARZ001-100300-
BENTON AR-
912 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CENTRAL BENTON

AT 912 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES WEST OF
HIWASSE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MILLER...BENTONVILLE...GRAVETTE...PEA
RIDGE...CAVE SPRINGS...VAUGHN...DECATUR...CENTERTON...HIWASSE AND
BELLA VISTA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3646 9406 3624 9418 3635 9453 3650 9439
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 285DEG 16KT 3642 9439

LACY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1109 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

ARZ010-011-019-020-100445-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-MADISON AR-WASHINGTON AR-
1109 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1145 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD...SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND SOUTHEASTERN
     WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

AT 1109 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
CHESTER...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...BIDVILLE...FERN...WINSLOW...MOUNTAINBURG...
CHESTER...LOCKE...MOUNT GAYLER...DEVILS DEN STATE PARK AND LAKE FORT
SMITH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3584 9391 3561 9391 3563 9427 3581 9428
TIME...MOT...LOC 0409Z 268DEG 11KT 3572 9416

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

ARZ019-020-100530-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
1143 PM CDT THU OCT 9 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHEASTERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN FRANKLIN

AT 1143 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES NORTH OF
LOCKE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED
BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PARADISE...BIDVILLE...JETHRO...FERN...
BARNES...TURNERS BEND...CASS...LOCKE...MOUNT GAYLER AND LAKE FORT
SMITH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3554 9384 3564 9417 3575 9414 3576 9413
      3575 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0443Z 287DEG 12KT 3571 9405

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OKZ054-055-100615-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
1237 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 115 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 1238 AM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTH OF
SUNSET LAKE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PAWHUSKA...OKESA...BARTLESVILLE...
DEWEY...OSAGE HILLS STATE PARK...BARTLESVILLE MUNICIPAL AIRPORT AND
SUNSET LAKE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3690 9594 3667 9587 3666 9634 3677 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 255DEG 31KT 3674 9623

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
137 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

OKZ056-057-100700-
CRAIG OK-NOWATA OK-
137 AM CDT FRI OCT 10 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CRAIG AND EASTERN NOWATA

AT 137 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLLOW TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CENTRALIA TO 9 MILES WEST OF CENTRALIA...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
CENTRALIA...HOLLOW AND CENTRAILIA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3695 9505 3664 9531 3676 9558 3698 9539
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 286DEG 22KT 3693 9537 3686 9543
          3678 9550