Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
253 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 80S HAS ERODED ANY CAP THAT
EXISTED...WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ACROSS NE OK. SBCAPES RUNNING AROUND 3000-4000 J/KG AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50KTS ARE HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO POSSIBLE. LOCAL MODELS BRING THIS ACTIVITY INTO NW
AROUND 22-23Z...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POSSIBLE WARM
SECTOR STORMS ACROSS SE OK AS WELL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AS IT ENTERS SE OK. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
COME TO AN END BY LATE EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY SURGES
THROUGH THE REGION.

DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A RIDGE OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. A LIGHT FREEZE IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
MORNING IN PARTS OF NW AR...WITH LOW TEMPS FALLING JUST BELOW 32F.

NEXT UPPER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SRN
HALF OF THE AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS FOR
SE OK/WCNTRL AR...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
MARGINAL GIVEN THE LINGERING RIDGING CONDITIONS ALONG THE GULF.
PERSISTENT NWLY UPPER FLOW WILL KEEP THE COOL WEATHER GOING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WARMER WEATHER RETURNING BY WEDNESDAY AS
SOUTH WINDS KICK BACK IN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  61  38  65 /  10   0   0  10
FSM   46  64  38  66 /  80   0   0  10
MLC   44  61  37  66 /  50   0   0  10
BVO   38  61  32  65 /  10   0   0  10
FYV   43  56  31  61 /  80   0   0  10
BYV   44  57  33  61 /  80   0   0  10
MKO   42  60  37  65 /  50   0   0  10
MIO   40  57  34  64 /  60   0   0  10
F10   42  60  37  65 /  10   0   0  10
HHW   47  67  39  66 /  70   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM THURSDAY FOR OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-
     OKZ071-OKZ073.

AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
128 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-041000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
130 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...THIS AFTERNOON.
	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
A DRY LINE AND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL
IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MOIST AIR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IN EXCESS OF
2000 JOULES/PER KG. STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF ROTATING STORM CELLS
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD WILL
BE FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS RISK WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

WINDY CONDITIONS AND VERY DRY AIR BEHIND THE DRY LINE WILL
YIELD AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT PRIMARILY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO FRIDAY
WITH COOLER CONDITIONS. ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ON TUESDAY...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM...WILL AGAIN CREATE AN INCREASED FIRE DANGER THREAT.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A REVIEW OF SEVERE
WEATHER SAFETY AND ACTION PLANS IS RECOMMENDED.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
325 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     HAIL             7 W STRANG              36.41N 95.26W
04/03/2014  E1.00 INCH       MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

BAS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

OKZ066-070-071-032115-
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
347 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN MUSKOGEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKMULGEE

AT 347 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER SCHULTER...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY
THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILSON...OKMULGEE...HOFFMAN...GRAYSON...
SCHULTER...MORRIS...ERAM...HITCHITA...COUNCIL HILL AND BOYNTON.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3566 9598 3569 9561 3548 9566 3546 9609
      3548 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 243DEG 26KT 3554 9594