Red Flag Warning 18, NWS Tulsa, OK

942 
WWUS84 KTSA 032018
RFWTSA

FIRE WEATHER PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
318 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

OKZ064>066-071-073-032130-
/O.CAN.KTSA.FW.W.0018.000000T0000Z-140404T0000Z/
CREEK-OKFUSKEE-OKMULGEE-MCINTOSH-PITTSBURG-
318 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS CANCELLED THE RED 
FLAG WARNING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
 * IN OKLAHOMA...CREEK...OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MCINTOSH AND 
   PITTSBURG. 

 * A HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING...BUT RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1154 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THEY WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A DRYLINE WITH THE NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES MOST LIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED. GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 948 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE STORMS REMAIN CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF WARM FRONT THIS
EVENING WITH INCREASINGLY CAPPED AIRMASS TAKING HOLD IN WARM
SECTOR OVERNIGHT. A COUPLE OF IMPULSES IN SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST SOME THREAT
OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE
OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN AR. OVERALL HAVE LOWERED POPS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SOME FOR TONIGHT...AND WE CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH
EARLIER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY MILD AND BUMPED THEM UP A FEW
DEGREES IN MOST AREAS.

CONCERN INCREASING FOR FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS LATEST
SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING LOCALLY RUN WRF INDICATE A
STRONG EASTWARD SURGE OF DRY LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AS MAIN UPPER
SYSTEM EJECTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DRY AIR
UPSTREAM...FEEL THAT AREAS BEHIND DRY LINE MAY EASILY FALL BELOW
20% RH WITH TEMPS WELL ABOVE 80 AND WINDS AROUND 20 MPH. WILL
HOIST A FIRE WX WATCH FOR TOMORROW ROUGHLY S OF 412 AND WEST OF
U.S. 69...SURGING COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP RH VALUES A LITTLE
HIGHER TO THE NW OF TULSA AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY LIMIT RAIN
CHANCES IN THIS AREA BUT GOING POP FORECAST SHOWS THIS TREND AND
WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW...BUT LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE
TULSA AREA AND POINTS SOUTHWEST WILL MISS OUT IN THIS ROUND.

ALL UPDATED PRODUCTS WILL BE OUT BY AROUND 10 PM OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
MVFR CEILINGS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY AT THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP AHEAD
OF A DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES AGAIN MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED. GUSTY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...EXCEPT AT KFSM WHERE LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS WILL RESULT
IN LLWS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014/

DISCUSSION...
AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED WAVY WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM
EXTREME SERN KS INTO FAR NRN OK...WITH DRYLINE ACROSS WRN OK. THE
LARGE WARM SECTOR IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND
3000-3500 J/KG...WITH AGITATED CU/TCU NOTED ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WEAKLY CAPPED...WITH LOCAL
MODELS/HRRR SUGGESTING INITIAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WARM FRONT TO
THE TRIPLE POINT AROUND 22-00Z. GIVEN EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40-50KTS...ANY STORMS THAT FORM SHOULD
QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF ANY TORNADOES
REMAINING NEAR THE WARM FRONT. ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP NE INTO PARTS OF NE OK/SE KS...BUT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLATED/SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR. THAT
SAID...WILL FOCUS HIGHEST POPS TO THE NW OF I-44.

APPROACHING UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE DRYLINE INTO CNTRL OK AROUND
MID-DAY THURSDAY...AND INTO ERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-AFTERNOON GENERALLY ALONG AND E OF
HIGHWAY 75...WITH ACTIVITY EXPANDING IN COVERAGE AS IT MOVES INTO
WRN AR DURING THE EVENING. COULD SEE DISCRETE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
INITIALLY ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE...WITH STORMS
EVENTUALLY BECOMING MORE LINEAR WITH TIME. AGAIN...ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION.

COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. COULD HAVE A LIGHT FREEZE ACROSS PARTS OF NW AR
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE SFC RIDGE SETTLES IN. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE SOME SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE
APPROACHES...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN HALF
OF THE AREA. SEASONALLY COOL WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR
     OKZ060-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ070-OKZ071-OKZ073.

AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
958 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-031000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
958 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...VERY LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED TO SURFACE
BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...VERY HIGH FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LIKELY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT. AGAIN...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...
MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE SIGNIFICANT RAIN THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL
RAPIDLY INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AS THE DRY
LINE PUSHES EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR SEVERAL COUNTIES IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DUE TO ANTICIPATED VERY LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WEST
WINDS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AS DETAILS AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS
CONTINUE TO BE REFINED. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.