Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Tulsa, OK

323 
WWUS54 KTSA 060237
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
937 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKC105-131-147-060300-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-140606T0300Z/
NOWATA OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
937 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WASHINGTON...
NORTH CENTRAL ROGERS AND SOUTHERN NOWATA COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 936 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF DEWEY...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT WIND
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...LENAPAH...DELAWARE...NEW
  ALLUWE...WATOVA AND NOWATA

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3683 9592 3690 9543 3653 9548 3666 9600
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 277DEG 23KT 3672 9583

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
646 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO/ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE
CWA. GREATER CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING AS ANOTHER MCS IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH. VFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN
ANY PRECIP AND SHOULD LIFT BACK TO VFR FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS
ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUING FOR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED SOME IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER
CONVECTION...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY LOW POPS ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.
WITH 700 MB TEMPS RUNNING 16-18C TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...WILL
LEAVE POPS OUT FOR THE EVENING ACROSS SE OK. SFC WINDS ALSO
RETURNING TO A S-SE COMPONENT...SUGGESTING THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY
HAS REESTABLISHED ITSELF NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN THIS EVENING...ANOTHER COMPLEX APPEARS TO
ORGANIZE TO THE NORTHWEST AND MAKE A RUN FOR NE OK AND NW AR LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM BEING WHERE THE
EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY WILL BE. HAVE STAYED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRENDS OF PUSHING THE HIGHEST POPS/QPF AXIS FURTHER SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. FFG VALUES REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE AREAS
THAT ARE TARGETED TO SEE THE MOST RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THEREFORE...WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS
TIME. RAIN CHANCES WILL LESSEN FOR THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT
WEEK AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT
WILL CUT OFF AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MODELS
HINT AT ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW
TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THUS..WILL KEEP LOW POPS
GOING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. RAIN AND CLOUD COVER
ARE LIKELY GOING TO HAMPER MAX TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST
HALF OF THE FORECAST...SO STAYED CLOSE TO...IF NOT BELOW...THE
COOLER GUIDANCE FOR MOST MAX TEMP PERIODS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  85  71  86 /  60  60  50  60
FSM   71  85  70  91 /  50  60  30  40
MLC   73  88  72  90 /  50  40  30  30
BVO   69  83  69  84 /  60  60  60  60
FYV   67  81  67  84 /  50  60  50  50
BYV   67  81  67  82 /  50  60  50  60
MKO   71  85  71  88 /  50  60  40  50
MIO   68  82  68  83 /  60  60  60  60
F10   72  87  72  89 /  50  50  40  40
HHW   73  90  72  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
505 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-061000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
505 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...PRIMARILY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...AFTER 9 PM...BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
WAKE OF THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND THESE STORMS
WOULD HAVE A LIMITED THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

BETTER CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER COMPLEX OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO ROLL
INTO THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH
RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.  DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER CONCERNS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE REGION.  EACH COMPLEX WILL
CONTAIN A RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
FLOODING WILL BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN AS REPEATED ROUNDS
OF HEAVY RAIN EFFECT THE REGION.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
913 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

OKZ054>056-061-060300-
NOWATA OK-OSAGE OK-ROGERS OK-WASHINGTON OK-
913 PM CDT THU JUN 5 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NOWATA...EASTERN OSAGE...NORTHERN ROGERS AND WASHINGTON

AT 913 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER DEWEY...MOVING
EAST AT 40 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
INCLUDE...NOWATA...DELAWARE...LENAPAH...WATOVA...NEW ALLUWE...
OKESA...BARTLESVILLE...DEWEY...COPAN AND BARTLESVILLE MUNICIPAL
AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3690 9543 3652 9547 3667 9618 3690 9597
TIME...MOT...LOC 0213Z 272DEG 35KT 3678 9591