Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 446
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 27, 2014, 1:39 PM EDT for 24 counties in Indiana; 55 counties in Michigan; 8 counties in Ohio. It was in force for 6 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 27, 2014, 1:39 PM EDT (17:39 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 27, 2014, 7:49 PM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 87 counties
Adams County, IN, Allen County, IN, Blackford County, IN, Cass County, IN, DeKalb County, IN, Elkhart County, IN, Fulton County, IN, Grant County, IN, Huntington County, IN, Jay County, IN, Kosciusko County, IN, LaGrange County, IN, LaPorte County, IN, Marshall County, IN, Miami County, IN, Noble County, IN, Pulaski County, IN, Saint Joseph County, IN, Starke County, IN, Steuben County, IN, Wabash County, IN, Wells County, IN, White County, IN, Whitley County, IN, Alcona County, MI, Allegan County, MI, Alpena County, MI, Antrim County, MI, Arenac County, MI, Barry County, MI, Bay County, MI, Berrien County, MI, Branch County, MI, Calhoun County, MI, Cass County, MI, Clare County, MI, Clinton County, MI, Crawford County, MI, Eaton County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Gladwin County, MI, Gratiot County, MI, Hillsdale County, MI, Huron County, MI, Ingham County, MI, Ionia County, MI, Iosco County, MI, Isabella County, MI, Jackson County, MI, Kalamazoo County, MI, Kalkaska County, MI, Kent County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Mecosta County, MI, Midland County, MI, Missaukee County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Montcalm County, MI, Montmorency County, MI, Newaygo County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Ogemaw County, MI, Osceola County, MI, Oscoda County, MI, Otsego County, MI, Ottawa County, MI, Roscommon County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Saint Joseph County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Van Buren County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI, Allen County, OH, Defiance County, OH, Fulton County, OH, Henry County, OH, Paulding County, OH, Putnam County, OH, Van Wert County, OH, Williams County, OH
The radar
The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 89 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 30%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 60%
Warnings issued inside it
58 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 1:48 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | APX | Alcona, Oscoda | 42 min |
| Jul 27, 1:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Montmorency | 38 min |
| Jul 27, 1:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Crawford, Kalkaska, Missaukee, Wexford | 39 min |
| Jul 27, 2:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Oscoda | 50 min |
| Jul 27, 2:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Alcona, Iosco | 44 min |
| Jul 27, 2:17 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland | 58 min |
| Jul 27, 2:36 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Bay | 54 min |
| Jul 27, 2:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Elkhart, Kosciusko, Marshall, Saint Joseph | 36 min |
| Jul 27, 2:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Lake, Osceola | 90 min |
| Jul 27, 2:50 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Berrien, Cass | 36 min |
| Jul 27, 2:52 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | APX | Ogemaw, Roscommon | 38 min |
| Jul 27, 3:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham | 84 min |
| Jul 27, 3:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Elkhart, Kosciusko, Noble, Whitley | 48 min |
| Jul 27, 3:15 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Huron, Tuscola | 75 min |
| Jul 27, 3:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Elkhart, Saint Joseph | 42 min |
| Jul 27, 3:22 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clare, Isabella | 53 min |
| Jul 27, 3:34 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee, Livingston, Shiawassee | 56 min |
| Jul 27, 3:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Jackson | 55 min |
| Jul 27, 3:39 PM EDT | Tornado Warning | DTX | Tuscola | 41 min |
| Jul 27, 3:49 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Elkhart, Kosciusko, Noble | 41 min |
| Jul 27, 3:54 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Allegan, Ottawa | 51 min |
| Jul 27, 3:55 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Midland | 65 min |
| Jul 27, 3:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Allen, DeKalb, Noble, Whitley | 46 min |
| Jul 27, 4:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay | 54 min |
| Jul 27, 4:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Oakland | 80 min |
| Jul 27, 4:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Noble, Whitley | 29 min |
| Jul 27, 4:16 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Isabella | 44 min |
| Jul 27, 4:19 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Bay, Midland, Saginaw | 66 min |
| Jul 27, 4:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Barry, Kalamazoo, Van Buren | 53 min |
| Jul 27, 4:24 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 57 min |
| Jul 27, 4:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Allen, DeKalb | 49 min |
| Jul 27, 4:27 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Sanilac, Tuscola | 78 min |
| Jul 27, 4:30 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Jackson | 10 min |
| Jul 27, 4:35 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee, Saginaw | 55 min |
| Jul 27, 4:37 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Lake, Mecosta, Osceola | 83 min |
| Jul 27, 4:39 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Allen, Whitley | 36 min |
| Jul 27, 4:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Gratiot, Montcalm | 61 min |
| Jul 27, 4:47 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saginaw | 58 min |
| Jul 27, 4:58 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Allen | 47 min |
| Jul 27, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Adams, Allen, Huntington, Wells | 46 min |
| Jul 27, 4:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Calhoun, Kalamazoo | 61 min |
| Jul 27, 5:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Oakland, Wayne | 73 min |
| Jul 27, 5:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Hillsdale | 35 min |
| Jul 27, 5:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lapeer | 68 min |
| Jul 27, 5:07 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Macomb, Saint Clair | 53 min |
| Jul 27, 5:10 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 18 min |
| Jul 27, 5:23 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Genesee, Saginaw | 47 min |
| Jul 27, 5:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Adams, Wells | 49 min |
| Jul 27, 5:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Monroe | 64 min |
| Jul 27, 5:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Eaton, Ingham, Jackson | 64 min |
| Jul 27, 5:43 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clinton, Gratiot, Montcalm | 74 min |
| Jul 27, 5:44 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Lenawee | 37 min |
| Jul 27, 5:45 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | IWX | Allen, Putnam, Van Wert | 48 min |
| Jul 27, 5:59 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | GRR | Clinton, Ionia | 61 min |
| Jul 27, 6:13 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Saint Clair | 47 min |
| Jul 27, 6:18 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Washtenaw | 57 min |
| Jul 27, 6:26 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Livingston, Washtenaw | 52 min |
| Jul 27, 7:03 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | DTX | Wayne | 41 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 5.7 hours before the alert went out and 123 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 130 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -266 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1652 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 35 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 10 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.2
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 9:11 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartholomew, Brown, Clark, Crawford, Daviess, Dearborn and 38 more | 64 min |
| Jul 27, 4:34 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Clark, Clay, Crawford, Daviess, Dubois and 20 more | 116 min |
| Jul 27, 11:19 AM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Martin and 5 more | 116 min |
| Jul 27, 1:44 PM EDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Dearborn, Fayette, Franklin, Ohio, Ripley, Switzerland and 2 more | 9 hr |
| Jul 27, 2:39 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bartholomew, Boone, Brown, Clay, Clinton, Fountain and 23 more | 66 min |
| Jul 27, 4:55 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, DeKalb, Elkhart, Grant and 9 more | 65 min |
| Jul 27, 12:54 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Alcona, Alpena, Antrim, Arenac, Bay, Cheboygan and 37 more | 66 min |
| Jul 27, 12:52 PM EDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Ashland, Carroll, Champaign, Clark, Columbiana and 34 more | 83 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Michigan, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Indiana, 2014Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Ohio, 2014Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.