Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
316 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

MID TROPOSPHERIC COLD POOL (2 C AT 700 MB/-15 C AT 500 MB) SWING
THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...WITH INSTABILITY
(MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG) AND SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. STILL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS WE ENTER
PEAK HEATING WITH SURFACE/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESET AND THE
SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 9 PM. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT JUST MOVING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA/SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN BORDER BY 12Z
MONDAY...BUT STIFF NORTHEAST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION OFF LAKE HURON
SHOULD LEAD TO LOW CLOUDS...IF NOT FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN PLUMMET
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. THIS WILL MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO THE 70S DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WE
HEAD INTO THE MONTH OF AUGUST...WITH JULY LIKELY CLOSING OUT A GOOD
2 TO 3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH ONLY ONE OF THE MAJOR CLIMATE SITES
RECORDING A SINGLE 90 PLUS DEGREE DAY IN DETROIT ON JULY 22ND.

THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING WEEK LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE MAKES ITS WAY EAST OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR
GETTING PULLED INTO THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. DESPITE THE COOL
AIR MASS...SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY
AIR AND SUBSIDENCE KEEP A LID ON THE DEPTH OF DEVELOPING AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
70 DEGREES...TEMPERATURES SHOULD STAY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE RECORD
COLD MAXES ON MONDAY. MONDAY NIGHT COULD BE A DIFFERENT STORY AS
HIGH PRESSURE AND CLEAR SKIES LEAD TO DECOUPLING AND ABUNDANT
RADIATIONAL COOLING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
ARE EXPECTED TO GET DOWN TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AWAY FROM THE DETROIT
METRO AREA...WITH RECORD LOWS AT RISK OF BEING BROKEN AT MBS AND
DTW. THE RECORD LOW AT FNT IS PROBABLY TOO LOW TO HIT ON MONDAY
NIGHT HOWEVER.

WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ON TUESDAY AND THE MAIN PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE GONE...THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
SOME INSTABILITY WHICH IN TURN WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS SEVERAL WEAK
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE TROUGH FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. HIGHS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. LOWS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER 50S.

BY NEXT WEEKEND THE TROUGH STARTS TO GET PUSHED EAST AS RIDGING
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT FURTHER
AS DAYTIME HIGHS INCH UPWARD INTO THE UPPER 70S. THE RIDGE AND
WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL GENERALLY LIMIT RAIN CHANCES NEXT
WEEKEND...HOWEVER A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY CANNOT BE
RULED OUT GIVEN THE INSTABILITY.

&&

.MARINE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SLOWLY
WINDING DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH HALF OF LAKE HURON THROUGH WESTERN
LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO
A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH TONIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAMP UP
BEHIND THE FRONT...PEAKING WITH 30 KNOT GUSTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON MONDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT MONDAY MORNING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LONG NORTH FETCH WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR BUILDING LARGE WAVES THAT WILL IMPACT THE SOUTH HALF
OF LAKE HURON AND NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES AND RETURN
BENIGN MARINE WEATHER FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...ISSUED 118 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

//DISCUSSION...

PRIMARY NEAR TERM CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER
HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...ESPECIALLY FROM FNT SOUTH. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM GAYLORD TO MUSKEGON AS OF 17Z AND
PUSHING EASTWARD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND POSSIBLY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY
TIMING FOR TSRA THREAT WILL BEGIN BY 18Z FOR MBS...19Z FOR
FNT/PTK...AND 20Z FOR THE I-94 TERMINALS. HAVE LEFT IN INHERITED
3-HR TEMPO TO COVER THIS...AND WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LARGE
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL VEER NORTHERLY THIS EVENING BEHIND THE TROUGH/COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR STRATUS
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL MIX OUT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT A HEALTHY COVERAGE OF VFR STRATOCU IS
EXPECTED...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 KT.

FOR DTW...BEST TIME FRAME FOR TSRA LOOKS TO BE 20-23Z. THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A SEVERE STORM COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL...WITH
LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL. BEST ESTIMATE FOR TIMING OF MVFR STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT IS 07Z TONIGHT. CLOUD BASES WILL LIFT LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT CIGS OF AOB 5KFT ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY...WITH GUSTY NNW WINDS TO 20KT DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD THREATS...

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING THIS
  AFTERNOON.

* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILING BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
  MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LAKE HURON...
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...SAGINAW BAY AND THE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM
     PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH...FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT
     TUESDAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT
     HURON...FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT TUESDAY.

LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MI WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...SF
LONG TERM....KURIMSKI
MARINE.......KURIMSKI
AVIATION.....SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-281800-
MIDLAND-BAY-HURON-SAGINAW-TUSCOLA-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-GENESEE-LAPEER-
ST. CLAIR-LIVINGSTON-OAKLAND-MACOMB-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-LENAWEE-MONROE-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED ARE
HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...GUSTY WINDS TO 60 MPH...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO. STORM
MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH...THOUGH SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF FASTER SPEEDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SHORELINE
OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ363-421-422-441>443-462>464-281800-
ST. CLAIR RIVER-DETROIT RIVER-LAKE ST. CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER SAGINAW
BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE ERIE...LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ST CLAIR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED ARE HAIL TO THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS...GUSTY WINDS TO 60 KNOTS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT. STORM MOTION WILL BE FROM WEST
TO EAST AT 20 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF FASTER
SPEEDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SHORELINE
OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LHZ361-362-281800-
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND 5NM
OFF SHORE-
154 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE HURON.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH HAIL UP TO AN INCH...WINDS UP TO 60 KNOTS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND THE POSSIBLITY OF AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT. STORM
MOTION WILL BE WEST TO EAST AT 20 KNOTS...THOUGH SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF FASTER SPEEDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS AND LARGE WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
SHORELINE
OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE BEHIND A STRONG
COLD FRONT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DT

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MIZ076-272130-
WAYNE-
436 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FLAT ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...OCCASIONAL
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRENTON AND GROSSE ILE BY 445 PM EDT...
  TAYLOR BY 450 PM EDT...
  WYANDOTTE BY 455 PM EDT...
  DOWNTOWN DETROIT BY 515 PM EDT...
  GROSSE POINTE BY 530 PM EDT...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

MANN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
447 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     HAIL             5 NNE MILFORD           42.66N 83.56W
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP

0440 PM     HAIL             5 NE MILFORD            42.63N 83.52W
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   NWS EMPLOYEE

            MEASURED IN WHITE LAKE TWP

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
449 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             5 ENE MILFORD           42.61N 83.51W
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   AMATEUR RADIO

            MEASURED AT BOGIE LK AND COOLEY LK ROADS

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
454 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             4 SE ROSE CENTER        42.69N 83.57W
07/27/2014  M1.75 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

THOMPSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
501 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             3 SSE ROSE CENTER       42.69N 83.58W
07/27/2014  E1.25 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT DUCK LAKE RD AND M-59

0449 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERFORD               42.66N 83.39W
07/27/2014  M62.00 MPH       OAKLAND            MI   ASOS

            MEASURED AT PONTIAC OAKLAND COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
            /KPTK/

0450 PM     HAIL             WATERFORD               42.66N 83.39W
07/27/2014  M1.00 INCH       OAKLAND            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED AT AIRPORT ROAD AND M-59

&&

THOMPSON

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