Alert archive / New York / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2014

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397

July 7, 201448 counties in New York; 36 counties in Pennsylvania

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at Jul 7, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT for 48 counties in New York; 36 counties in Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2014, 2:45 PM EDT (18:45 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2014, 8:51 PM EDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

All 84 counties

Albany County, NY, Allegany County, NY, Broome County, NY, Cattaraugus County, NY, Cayuga County, NY, Chautauqua County, NY, Chemung County, NY, Chenango County, NY, Columbia County, NY, Cortland County, NY, Delaware County, NY, Dutchess County, NY, Erie County, NY, Fulton County, NY, Genesee County, NY, Greene County, NY, Hamilton County, NY, Herkimer County, NY, Lewis County, NY, Livingston County, NY, Madison County, NY, Monroe County, NY, Montgomery County, NY, Niagara County, NY, Oneida County, NY, Onondaga County, NY, Ontario County, NY, Orange County, NY, Orleans County, NY, Oswego County, NY, Otsego County, NY, Putnam County, NY, Rensselaer County, NY, Saratoga County, NY, Schenectady County, NY, Schoharie County, NY, Schuyler County, NY, Seneca County, NY, Steuben County, NY, Sullivan County, NY, Tioga County, NY, Tompkins County, NY, Ulster County, NY, Warren County, NY, Washington County, NY, Wayne County, NY, Wyoming County, NY, Yates County, NY, Allegheny County, PA, Armstrong County, PA, Beaver County, PA, Bradford County, PA, Butler County, PA, Cambria County, PA, Cameron County, PA, Centre County, PA, Clarion County, PA, Clearfield County, PA, Clinton County, PA, Columbia County, PA, Elk County, PA, Forest County, PA, Indiana County, PA, Jefferson County, PA, Lackawanna County, PA, Lawrence County, PA, Luzerne County, PA, Lycoming County, PA, McKean County, PA, Mercer County, PA, Montour County, PA, Northumberland County, PA, Pike County, PA, Potter County, PA, Sullivan County, PA, Susquehanna County, PA, Tioga County, PA, Union County, PA, Venango County, PA, Warren County, PA, Washington County, PA, Wayne County, PA, Westmoreland County, PA, Wyoming County, PA

The radar

The Binghamton radar (KBGM), 128 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 5%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 60%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

27 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 3:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Chautauqua	26 min
Jul 7, 3:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Potter, Tioga	42 min
Jul 7, 3:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Allegany, Erie, Livingston, Wyoming	61 min
Jul 7, 3:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Broome, Chenango, Cortland	54 min
Jul 7, 3:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Allegany, Cattaraugus	49 min
Jul 7, 4:12 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BUF	Cattaraugus, Chautauqua	63 min
Jul 7, 4:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Jefferson	45 min
Jul 7, 4:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clearfield, Elk	59 min
Jul 7, 4:35 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chemung, Schuyler, Tioga, Tompkins	55 min
Jul 7, 4:39 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Chenango, Delaware, Madison, Otsego	66 min
Jul 7, 4:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Clarion, Forest, Jefferson, Venango	43 min
Jul 7, 5:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Delaware	45 min
Jul 7, 5:19 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Montgomery, Schenectady, Schoharie	41 min
Jul 7, 5:22 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Elk, McKean	41 min
Jul 7, 5:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Forest, Jefferson	36 min
Jul 7, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Pike, Wayne	39 min
Jul 7, 5:47 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Sullivan	58 min
Jul 7, 5:51 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Orange	54 min
Jul 7, 5:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cameron, Clearfield, Elk	52 min
Jul 7, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Montgomery, Rensselaer, Saratoga and 2 more	47 min
Jul 7, 6:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	PBZ	Clarion, Jefferson	37 min
Jul 7, 6:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	BGM	Pike	20 min
Jul 7, 6:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Albany, Columbia, Greene, Rensselaer	50 min
Jul 7, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	OKX	Orange, Putnam	64 min
Jul 7, 6:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Rensselaer, Saratoga, Washington	62 min
Jul 7, 7:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ALY	Dutchess, Ulster	67 min
Jul 7, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clinton, Lycoming, Union	64 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 6.8 hours before the alert went out and 131 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 43 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -68 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 701 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 46 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 200 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 195 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 12:46 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Columbia, Rensselaer, Saratoga, Schenectady, Warren and 1 more	89 min
Jul 7, 2:10 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung and 22 more	65 min
Jul 7, 4:44 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Albany, Allegany, Broome, Cattaraugus, Chemung, Chenango and 26 more	91 min
Jul 7, 1:18 PM EDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Allegheny, Beaver, Butler, Lawrence	87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New York, 2014 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Pennsylvania, 2014 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.