Severe Thunderstorm Warning 39, NWS Buffalo, NY

778 
WWUS51 KBUF 071941
SVSBUF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
341 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

NYC013-071952-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0039.000000T0000Z-140707T2015Z/
CHAUTAUQUA NY-
341 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 342 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR SHOWED THAT THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAD WEAKENED AND WAS NO LONGER
SEVERE...THUS THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM EDT
MONDAY EVENING FOR WESTERN NEW YORK.

LAT...LON 4199 7940 4204 7974 4220 7972 4231 7907
      4200 7906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 278DEG 29KT 4207 7936

$$

ZAFF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
235 PM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION...RESULTING IN WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z...TODAY'S SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO FIRE
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. SPC
CONTINUES TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THOUGH THE BEST MOST FAVORABLE AREA APPEARS TO BE JUST SOUTH AND
EAST IN VCNTY OF THE THETA-E RIDGE. IN ADDITION, ANY TSTMS THAT DO
DEVELOP IN THE 1.5-2.0 INCH PWAT ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SOME PRETTY HEAVY LOCALIZED RAINS. WITH THE SETTING
SUN...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
END WITH A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IN STORE FOR THE REGION.

TUESDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE WHAT COULD BE AN INTERESTING DAY FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK. SPC INCLUDES THE BULK
OF WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ANOTHER FRONT IS DEVELOP
EARLY TUESDAY ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND TRACK EAST REACHING WRN
NEW YORK LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG REACHING WRN
NY BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED THE POSSIBILITY OF NOT ONLY
HEAVY RAINS BUT GUSTY WINDS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TIME FRAME.

TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT A WARM ALBEIT MUGGY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH
TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERNT TIER AND NORTH
COUNTRY TO THE UPPER 70S NIAGARA FRONTIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION.
ON TUESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTY
LONGEST THEN TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE FORCING SHIFTS INTO
QUEBEC. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RUN ABOVE AVERAGE
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE DRIVING SURFACE LOW.

ON WEDNESDAY THE 500MB TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES WITH MODELS SHOWING A SECOND DISTURBANCE ROTATING THROUGH THE
TROUGH. INSTABILITY LOOKS QUITE A BIT WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS SO
HAVE JUST INCLUDED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOCUSED TOWARD WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE MORE LIMITED
INSTABILITY PROFILES AND OVERTURNED ATMOSPHERE FROM TUESDAYS
CONVECTION. A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT BRINGING A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE FLOW OF AIR OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
BE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH TEMPS
IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FIRMLY OVERHEAD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK FOR 2-3
DAYS OF DRY WEATHER BEGINNING THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD POOL ALOFT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DAYTIME INLAND CUMULUS ON THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER POSSIBLE WELL INLAND...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SIMILAR TO JULY 4.  A
GRADUAL WARM-UP IS EXPECTED WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MOVING IN BY
SATURDAY.  SUNDAY...WITH THE USUAL UNCERTAINTY 7 DAYS OUT...WILL
FEATURE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING BEHIND THE DEPARTING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON AS MAINLY MVFR CIGS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN
MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT WHILE
ELSEWHERE CONDS BECOME VFR. ON TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AFTN CU WILL RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR CONDS.

BOTH THIS AFTN/EVENING AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THE AREA REMAINS IN SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW SCA LEVELS TONIGHT HOWEVER ANOTHER
ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ON LAKE
ERIE FROM LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...SHARPENING THAT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. LOOK FOR A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
PERIOD OF MORE PLACID CONDITIONS ON THE LAKE FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ020-
         040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
         LOZ030-042-043.

&&

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
525 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-080930-
NIAGARA-ORLEANS-MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-
NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-LIVINGSTON-ONTARIO-CHAUTAUQUA-
CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-
525 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS
WILL AGAIN HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-SLZ022-024-080930-
UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO DUNKIRK-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM DUNKIRK TO BUFFALO-
LOWER NIAGARA RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
RIVER-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM THE NIAGARA RIVER TO HAMLIN BEACH-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM HAMLIN BEACH TO SODUS BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM SODUS BAY TO MEXICO BAY-
LAKE ONTARIO OPEN WATERS FROM MEXICO BAY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM CAPE VINCENT TO OGDENSBURG-
SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER FROM OGDENSBURG TO SAINT REGIS-
525 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEW YORK WATERS OF LAKE
ERIE...LAKE ONTARIO...AND THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORM CELLS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
BUFFALO CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUF

SMITH