Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014
Mesoscale Discussion 430
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 27, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT for 7 counties in Kansas; 35 counties in Missouri; Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 95 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 27, 2014, 6:10 PM CDT (23:10 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 27, 2014, 7:45 PM CDT
- In force
- 95 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 95%
All 43 counties
Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Camden County, MO, Cass County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Howell County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO, Newton County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Polk County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Texas County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO, Ottawa County, OK
The radar
The Springfield radar (KSGF), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1412 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -304 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 983 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 27 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 369 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 225 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
438
ACUS11 KWNS 272311
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272310
ARZ000-MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-280045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0430
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SW MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 272310Z - 280045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SEVERAL SUPERCELL STORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E/NE ACROSS SW MO. A
NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR ACROSS SW MO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
ONGOING SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING
TORNADOES NEAR THE MO/KS STATE LINE. THE AXIS OF GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA SEWD TO
JUST EAST OF SPRINGFIELD MO. HERE...THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. THE 88-D VAD
WIND PROFILE FROM KSFG SHOWED BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A FAVORABLE
CYCLONICALLY CURVED HODOGRAPH WITH O-1 KM SRH APPROACHING 400 M2/S2.
FURTHER E TOWARD CENTRAL AND S-CENTRAL MO THE TORNADO THREAT WILL
NOT BE ZERO BUT WILL DECLINE DUE AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS LEAD TO A
COOLER AND MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ROTATING STORMS. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTION
MAY BEGIN TO GROW UPSCALE AS IT MOVES INTO THIS REGION.
..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/27/2014
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...
LAT...LON 38769505 39149510 39219492 39239456 38869341 38389251
37889196 37049183 36519169 36449230 36449311 36489507
38769505SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 5:09 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Anderson, Atchison, Barber, Barton, Butler, Chase and 46 more | 96 min |
| Apr 27, 6:09 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Brown, Butler, Chase, Chautauqua and 41 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 27, 7:55 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Brown, Butler and 40 more | 95 min |
| Apr 27, 10:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Crawford, Doniphan, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn and 2 more | 113 min |
| Apr 27, 11:23 AM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn and 2 more | 8 hr |
| Apr 27, 11:54 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Jewell, Mitchell, Ottawa and 3 more | 96 min |
| Apr 27, 12:16 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Jewell, Mitchell, Smith | 7 hr |
| Apr 27, 4:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Johnson, Linn, Miami and 1 more | 63 min |
| Apr 27, 6:26 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Johnson, Leavenworth, Miami, Wyandotte | 8 hr |
| Apr 27, 1:59 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Audrain, Barton, Benton, Boone, Caldwell and 60 more | 61 min |
| Apr 27, 2:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Audrain, Boone, Callaway, Clark, Cole, Crawford and 25 more | 7 hr |
| Apr 27, 5:33 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Alfalfa, Atoka, Blaine, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian and 51 more | 6 hr |
| Apr 27, 10:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal, Craig and 16 more | 84 min |
| Apr 27, 12:25 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | LeFlore, McCurtain, Sequoyah | 2 hr |
| Apr 27, 1:46 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Choctaw, Craig, Delaware, Haskell and 11 more | 9 hr |
| Apr 27, 3:36 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | LeFlore, McCurtain | 7 hr |
| Apr 27, 4:52 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Cherokee, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain, Sequoyah | 53 min |
| Apr 27, 6:11 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Haskell, LeFlore, McCurtain, Sequoyah | 64 min |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.