Alert archive / Mississippi / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 413

April 27, 201410 counties in Arkansas; 42 counties in Mississippi

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 27, 2014, 6:05 AM CDT for 10 counties in Arkansas; 42 counties in Mississippi. It was in force for 55 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 27, 2014, 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC)
Expired: Apr 27, 2014, 7:00 AM CDT
In force: 55 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 20%

All 52 counties

Arkansas County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Desha County, AR, Jefferson County, AR, Lee County, AR, Lincoln County, AR, Lonoke County, AR, Monroe County, AR, Phillips County, AR, Prairie County, AR, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Calhoun County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Chickasaw County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Clay County, MS, Coahoma County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lafayette County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Panola County, MS, Quitman County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Tallahatchie County, MS, Tate County, MS, Tunica County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yalobusha County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

The radar

The Jackson/Brandon,MS radar (KDGX), 160 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 11:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KBYH), launched 00:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2050 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 36 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 74 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

335 
ACUS11 KWNS 271106
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271105 
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-271200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0605 AM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL MS...E-CNTRL/SE AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 271105Z - 271200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN MS AND W-CNTRL AR
AS ONGOING TSTM CONTINUE NEWD. MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT AS WELL
AS LOW COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS WITHIN A ZONE OF WAA QUICKLY INTENSIFIED AS THEY
ENCOUNTERED A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM E-CNTRL AR SEWD ACROSS NRN
MS AND INTO W-CNTRL AL. SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT MAY ALSO BE OCCURRING
AS A RESULT OF A WEAK PERTURBATION OBSERVED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER THE SABINE VALLEY. ELEVATED INSTABILITY...A RESULT OF STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE REGION...EXISTS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
ONGOING TSTMS. THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD FAVOR CONTINUATION AND
PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. SOME ISOLATED HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT
THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD HINDER MORE THAN BRIEF STORM
ORGANIZATION. LIMITED SVR COVERAGE AND MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT
SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..MOSIER/MEAD.. 04/27/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   34549245 34779229 35069124 34919025 34348921 33708848
            33288833 32448853 31618923 31719004 32269071 33049124
            33949202 34309229 34549245

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 27, 12:25 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Columbia, Conway, Crawford and 29 more	2 hr
Apr 27, 1:46 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 55 more	9 hr
Apr 27, 3:36 PM CDT	Tornado Watch PDS	SPC	Arkansas, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark, Cleveland, Conway and 33 more	7 hr
Apr 27, 4:52 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun, Clark and 52 more	53 min
Apr 27, 6:11 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Arkansas, Baxter, Benton, Boone, Bradley, Calhoun and 48 more	64 min
Apr 27, 6:26 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Baxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Crawford and 12 more	8 hr
Apr 27, 4:01 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carroll, Choctaw, Coahoma, Grenada, Leflore, Montgomery and 3 more	89 min
Apr 27, 4:21 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Adams, Amite, Franklin, Jefferson, Lincoln, Pike and 1 more	114 min
Apr 27, 5:32 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Calhoun, Chickasaw, Coahoma, DeSoto, Itawamba, Lafayette and 11 more	3 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Mississippi, 2014 Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2014 Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.