Alert archive / Missouri / Mesoscale Discussions in 2014

Mesoscale Discussion 261

April 3, 20144 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Apr 3, 2014, 12:33 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 87 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 3, 2014, 12:33 PM CDT (17:33 UTC)
Expired
Apr 3, 2014, 2:00 PM CDT
In force
87 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
95%
All 54 counties

Benton County, AR, Carroll County, AR, Crawford County, AR, Franklin County, AR, Madison County, AR, Sebastian County, AR, Washington County, AR, Allen County, KS, Bourbon County, KS, Cherokee County, KS, Crawford County, KS, Labette County, KS, Linn County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Barry County, MO, Barton County, MO, Bates County, MO, Benton County, MO, Cedar County, MO, Christian County, MO, Dade County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Greene County, MO, Henry County, MO, Hickory County, MO, Jasper County, MO, Lawrence County, MO, McDonald County, MO, Newton County, MO, Polk County, MO, St. Clair County, MO, Stone County, MO, Taney County, MO, Vernon County, MO, Webster County, MO, Adair County, OK, Cherokee County, OK, Craig County, OK, Creek County, OK, Delaware County, OK, Haskell County, OK, Mayes County, OK, McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Nowata County, OK, Okfuskee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK, Ottawa County, OK, Rogers County, OK, Sequoyah County, OK, Tulsa County, OK, Wagoner County, OK, Washington County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 104 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2014-04-03Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1727 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 12:00Z on 2014-04-03The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 417 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1727 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-17 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
686 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
417 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
423 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
3.5
Supercell composite
15.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

201 
ACUS11 KWNS 031733
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031733 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-031900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0261
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT THU APR 03 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...SE KS...SW MO...NE OK...FAR NW AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 031733Z - 031900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS SE KS INTO NE
OK. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS
AND TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED AGITATED CU FIELD JUST
AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT/DRYLINE ACROSS SE KS SWD INTO NE OK. 17Z
MESOANALYSIS INDICATED LITTLE IF ANY CAP REMAINED ACROSS THIS
REGION. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH MODIFIED 17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
AS THE FRONT ADVANCES TOWARD THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AND BECOME SEVERE. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS /AT LEAST INITIALLY/. AS
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MIDLEVEL WAVE
IMPINGES ON THE REGION...STORMS MAY TEND TOWARD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO
A BROKEN LINE OF SUPERCELLS AND/OR QLCS STRUCTURES. EITHER WAY...LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT.
ADDITIONALLY...STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5-8 DEG C PER KM
AND SBCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL
DEVELOPMENT.

PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 0049 WOULD LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH A NEW
WATCH TO ENCOMPASS THREAT AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO SW MO/NW AR.

..LEITMAN/HART.. 04/03/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36379615 36949586 37689560 38149538 38409491 38489449
            38519434 38519375 38389318 37939291 37319275 36669292
            36569297 35569367 35219416 35029511 35119608 35299649
            35509661 35909648 36379615

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 3, 9:18 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway and 28 more57 min
Apr 3, 9:33 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Calhoun, Carroll, Clark and 38 more7 hr
Apr 3, 12:05 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Benton, Boone, Carroll, Clark, Cleburne and 27 more55 min
Apr 3, 1:15 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more8 hr
Apr 3, 1:46 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHempstead, Howard, Little River, Miller, Montgomery, Pike and 4 more89 min
Apr 3, 1:50 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCHempstead, Howard, Lafayette, Little River, Miller, Nevada and 1 more7 hr
Apr 3, 3:48 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenton, Carroll, Crawford, Madison, Washington57 min
Apr 3, 4:34 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBaxter, Boone, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Conway and 35 more26 min
Apr 3, 4:58 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBaxter, Boone, Calhoun, Clark, Cleburne, Conway and 31 more7 hr
Apr 2, 7:25 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllen, Anderson, Barber, Butler, Chase, Clay and 32 more8 hr
Apr 2, 9:36 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Bourbon, Butler, Chase, Coffey and 22 more54 min
Apr 2, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBourbon, Crawford, Johnson, Leavenworth, Linn, Miami and 1 more7 hr
Apr 3, 12:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Chase, Clay and 28 more90 min
Apr 3, 1:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtchison, Brown, Clay, Cloud, Doniphan, Jackson and 9 more55 min
Apr 3, 2:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Anderson, Atchison, Bourbon, Crawford, Douglas and 8 more116 min
Apr 3, 12:28 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Iron, Madison, Mississippi and 7 more62 min
Apr 3, 12:46 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBollinger, Butler, Cape Girardeau, Carter, Crawford, Iron and 12 more4 hr
Apr 3, 3:17 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudrain, Boone, Carroll, Chariton, Cooper, Howard and 10 more58 min
Apr 3, 6:42 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Love, McCurtain, Marshall and 1 more93 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Missouri, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2014Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2014Every mesoscale discussion in 2014

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.