Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE CWA ATTM AND IS MOVING FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE FASTER MOVEMENT SO
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN CREATED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF HAND DRAWN
THREE HOUR GRIDS. DEWPOINTS LIKE WISE. STILL LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. A FEW DISCRETE
CELLS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THESE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ROTATION. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 16Z
TO COVER THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL DUE TO MORE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DAY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN SOME LOCATIONS AND MIXING DOWN OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SPORADIC.

BY MIDNIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
AND TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME.

ON TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 70S MOST AREAS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...
DECREASING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEEK...HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR PLACE...WITH 40S NORTH TO
50S SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  53  74  48  78 / 100  20   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  73  50  77 / 100  40  10   0   0
DEQ  70  52  71  42  75 / 100  30   0   0   0
TXK  73  52  71  48  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
ELD  77  52  70  45  75 / 100  30  10   0   0
TYR  71  51  75  48  79 / 100  10   0   0   0
GGG  75  52  76  46  80 / 100  10   0   0   0
LFK  79  52  78  48  81 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
446 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131715-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
446 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

A SQUALL LINE WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS EVENT. A FEW
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE...
WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. HIGHEST RISK OF
THE TORNADOES WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...BUT DUE TO
THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED AREA WIDE TODAY.

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