Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Shreveport, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
340 AM CDT MON OCT 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SQUALL LINE IS JUST WEST OF THE CWA ATTM AND IS MOVING FASTER
THAN EXPECTED. GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THE FASTER MOVEMENT SO
TODAYS HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN CREATED ON EXTRAPOLATION OF HAND DRAWN
THREE HOUR GRIDS. DEWPOINTS LIKE WISE. STILL LOOKING FOR
WIDESPREAD STRONG WINDS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS. A FEW DISCRETE
CELLS STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE...AND THESE WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ROTATION. TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED THROUGH 16Z
TO COVER THIS MORNING. EXPECT ANOTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL ACTUALLY HAVE MORE POTENTIAL DUE TO MORE LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE DAY FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...BUT DO NOT EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS ALL AREAS THIS MORNING DUE
TO A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN SOME LOCATIONS AND MIXING DOWN OF THE
LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE SPORADIC.

BY MIDNIGHT...A CLOSED UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHERN MISSOURI WITH THE TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA
AND TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE
AREA BY THAT TIME. SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION MAY FOLLOW THE
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE 50S
ACROSS ALL OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. ANY REMAINING PRECIP
SHOULD BE JUST NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY THAT TIME.

ON TUESDAY...BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BUT WITH CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 70S MOST AREAS. FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...
DECREASING WIND AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND LOWS IN THE 40S CAN BE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
MOST OF THE CWA. FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST WEEK...HIGHS WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR PLACE...WITH 40S NORTH TO
50S SOUTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  78  53  74  48  78 / 100  20   0   0   0
MLU  82  55  73  50  77 / 100  40  10   0   0
DEQ  70  52  71  42  75 / 100  30   0   0   0
TXK  73  52  71  48  76 / 100  30   0   0   0
ELD  77  52  70  45  75 / 100  30  10   0   0
TYR  71  51  75  48  79 / 100  10   0   0   0
GGG  75  52  76  46  80 / 100  10   0   0   0
LFK  79  52  78  48  81 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.

OK...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: OKZ077.

TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

&&

14

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-131700-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION AR-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-
UNION LA-DE SOTO-RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE LA-
NATCHITOCHES-WINN-GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-MCCURTAIN-BOWIE-
FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-CASS-WOOD-UPSHUR-MARION-SMITH-GREGG-
HARRISON-CHEROKEE-RUSK-PANOLA-NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-
SAN AUGUSTINE-SABINE TX-
1147 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...EAST TEXAS AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

STRONG ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LATE
TONIGHT...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST TEXAS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ON MONDAY...THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT A SQUALL LINE WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. DAMAGING WIND WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS EVENT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...FLASH FLOODING IS
NOT LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND AREAWIDE ON MONDAY.

05

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 PM CDT SUN OCT 12 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 E BENTON              32.69N  93.59W
10/12/2014                   BOSSIER            LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 157 AND C E
            DAY SR ROAD EAST OF BENTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1400618

15