Special Weather Statement, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
224 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening and tonight)

It was a stormy day over extreme southeast Kansas and the Missouri
Ozarks. Heavy rain impacted a few areas north of Interstate 44
where spotty flooding was ongoing. Deeper into south central
Missouri and much of Arkansas, we continue to monitor a more unstable
environment, where temperatures have warmed into the 80s, and dew
points are in the low 70s. This environment is currently yielding
mixed layer capes at 2500 or better.

Large hail and damaging wind gusts continue to be the primary risk
with the more intense storms. However, we can not rule out a
couple tornadoes later this afternoon and evening, as the northern
Arkansas airmass continues to stream into southern Missouri.

Storms should end from west to east this evening, as the cold
front sweeps across the Ozarks.

A Canadian airmass will replace the current Gulf airmass, bring
temperatures down into the lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Thursday)

It's going to legitimately feel like late fall this weekend as
overnight lows could plummet into the mid and upper 30s early
Saturday morning. Lows in the 40s are expected Sunday and Monday
mornings, with highs only warming into 50s and 60s.

Warmer weather is expected on Monday as south winds return. These
south winds will be short-lived as another frontal system
approaches from the northwest Monday night. This feature could
also bring some rain showers Monday night and into Tuesday
morning.

Otherwise nothing too significant was signaled in the medium range
models through next Wednesday. However, there were some
indications of more stormy weather toward the end of next week.
We'll tackle some details on that as we progress with time.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 521 AM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

The main aviation concerns for pilots flying in and out of the
Missouri Ozarks region will be strong to severe convection
developing today through this evening. On going convection this
morning will affect mainly JLN and later SGF. There will be a
small break in convection around midday with additional strong to
severe convection developing by mid to late afternoon.

Have the line of convection moving from west to east affecting JLN
earliest and BBG during the early evening hours. Convection will
taper to VCSH by the evening. There will be ceiling and
visibility drops to low end MVFR if not IFR possible under the
heaviest convection. Gusty and variable winds can be expected
under the strongest convection as well. Winds will generally be
out of ths south today switching to northwest behind a cold front
tonight. Overall trend for tonight will be a drop in ceilings to
low end MVFR flirting with IFR possibly for SGF and BBG.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-
     066>071-077>081-088-089.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Griffin

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-032015-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
315 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  ELEVATED HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.

DISCUSSION...

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS
REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLF BALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISKS WITH
THE MORE INTENSE STORMS. THE RISK FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IS GREATER
IN SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE UNSTABLE.
STORMS WILL EXIT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FROST
IN SHELTERED AREAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR FOR
 LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 49.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CRAMER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
205 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ102-022000-
BARRY MO-
205 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN BARRY COUNTY UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 204 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELIGMAN...OR 19 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PINEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3649 9407 3659 9408 3688 9362 3682 9361
      3682 9357 3649 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 233DEG 30KT 3642 9412

WISE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
233 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0224 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SALEM                   37.65N 91.54W
10/02/2014                   DENT               MO   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE REPORTED DOWN IN SALEM BLOCKING ROAD.

&&

JCOLUCCI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
238 PM CDT THU OCT 02 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             PINEVILLE               36.59N 94.38W
10/02/2014  M1.00 INCH       MCDONALD           MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

DSA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
259 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ083-098-022030-
DENT MO-SHANNON MO-
259 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL SHANNON AND
SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 258 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GLADDEN...OR 17 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF SALEM...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. NICKEL SIZE HAIL...
AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE BOSS...BUNKER...GLADDEN...HOWES MILL...
STONE HILL AND TURTLE.

PEOPLE IN NORTHERN SHANNON AND SOUTHEASTERN DENT COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BUNKER...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD
SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3758 9117 3759 9131 3751 9131 3751 9121
      3750 9120 3741 9120 3733 9136 3746 9151
      3771 9129 3771 9115 3770 9114 3759 9115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 228DEG 43KT 3744 9136

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
313 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ077-088-022100-
BARTON MO-JASPER MO-
313 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JASPER AND SOUTHEASTERN BARTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

AT 312 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
NECK CITY TO ORONOGO TO WESTERN JOPLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.
WINDS AROUND 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE AIRPORT DRIVE...ALBA...CARL JUNCTION...
CARTERVILLE...CARTHAGE...DUENWEG...DUQUESNE...GOLDEN CITY...IRON
GATES...JASPER...JOPLIN...ORONOGO...PURCELL...SARCOXIE AND WEBB CITY.

INTERSTATE 44 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 7 AND 32 WILL ALSO BE IMPACTED BY
THESE STORMS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3736 9459 3747 9408 3729 9408 3729 9405
      3723 9405 3705 9406 3706 9462 3715 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 246DEG 36KT 3730 9450 3719 9450
          3707 9454

WISE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
321 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

MOZ077-022045-
BARTON MO-
321 PM CDT THU OCT 2 2014

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BARTON COUNTY UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

AT 319 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF NASHVILLE...OR 11 MILES WEST OF
LAMAR...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE IANTHA...IRWIN...LAMAR HEIGHTS...LAMAR...
MILFORD...NASHVILLE AND OAKTON.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY INCLUDE PRAIRIE
STATE PARK.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
THURSDAY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI.

LAT...LON 3765 9424 3764 9412 3764 9408 3749 9408
      3739 9446 3736 9450 3737 9451 3750 9458
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 244DEG 45KT 3746 9443

WISE