Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
350 PM CDT Sun Apr 27 2014

...Mesoscale Discussion...

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

No major changes to the going thoughts this afternoon, as the
initial wave of convection is quickly pushing east of the CWA.
Another band of scattered showers/thunderstorms has developed
between I-49 and U.S. 65 in an area of low level convergence, but
right now, don't think that this area will be too much of a concern,
though it will need to be watched.

Main area of concern remains the surface front/dryline across
eastern Oklahoma, where TCU has been observed developing on visible
satellite within the last hour.  Surface convergence, while still
not great, should improve as height falls overspread this area and
surface winds back ahead on the east side of the boundary.  The
environment across this area is quite unstable, characterized by
MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG, with shear values more than
sufficient for supercells.

High confidence exists that supercells will develop across eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas late this afternoon into the evening
hours.  The big question right now is how dense storm coverage will
be, and whether development will be far enough north for any storms
to move into southern Missouri.  At this point, significant severe
weather potential remains conditional.  But, should storms make in
into southern Missouri later this afternoon/evening, very large
hail, high winds, and tornadoes will be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

Main concern for this evening will be potential storms developing
to our west along a dryline currently extending across eastern
Kansas and eastern Oklahoma. Latest LAPS analyses show that the
airmass immediately ahead of the dryline remains unstable with
CAPE values around 2000-3000j/kg with no inhibition. So do not
plan to let the current tornado watch go anytime soon. Storms that
developed earlier today and continue along the MO/KS border and
over the eastern MO Ozarks have produced sporadic hail and severe
wind gusts...but likely remain rooted above the boundary layer
with convective inhibition values over 100 j/kg.

Will keep storm chances going over the entire forecast area
through the evening and then begin to taper chances off from west
to east after Midnight. Will make last minute adjustments on
mention of severe storms in the zone forecast but currently plan
to keep severe mention east of Highway 65 through the night...and
go with severe for just the evening west of this line.

Other concern will be with heavy rainfall over our southeast
counties through tonight where a potential mesoscale convective
complex is expected to track northeast from Arkansas and add to
the rain already received this afternoon. So will post a Flood
Watch for Oregon/Shannon/Howell counties for tonight.

As we go into late tonight and Monday...will mainly follow NAM
timing on ending precip over our eastern zones around Midday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

The upper level low pressure center is expected to become cut off
from main upper flow and meander across the upper Midwest through
Thursday...which will make timing of precipitation rather tricky
as spokes of energy rotate around the upper low. Have a little
more confidence in the fact that most of the precipitation should
be on the lighter side.

Temperatures are still expected to be unseasonably cool with the
cutoff low ushering in a Canadian airmass over the region.
Wednesday night and Thursday night still look to be the coldest
and overall have gone upper 30s to lower 40s for minimums.

The upper low will finally shift northeast into the Great Lakes
region by Friday with some moderation in temperatures through
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

A large and slow moving storm system moving into the central portion
of the country will bring several rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity to southwestern Missouri Airfields into the evening hours
today.  Expect periods of MVFR due to lower ceilings and reduced
forward visibility in heavier rainfall associated with convective
activity. As this system slowly progresses eastward this evening and
tonight...precipitation will abate from west to east.  Included a
period of low level wind shear at all three airfields this evening
due to strong southwesterly flow just above the surface associated
with this system.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLOOD WATCH from 7 PM CDT this evening through Monday morning
     FOR MOZ097-098-106.

KS...NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Colucci

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
359 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-282100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
359 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

  ELEVATED TORNADO RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK.
  ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE RISK.
  ELEVATED FLOODING RISK.
  SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING RISK.
  LIMITED NON THUNDERSTORM WIND RISK.

DISCUSSION...

  NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EXTREME SOUTHEAST
  KANSAS AND THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY AND THIS EVENING.

  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND TORNADOES ARE ALL
  POSSIBLE.

  A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING
  DRYLINE TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
  LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. INCREASING
  VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR ROTATING
  THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
  UP TO TWO INCHES IN DIAMETER...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND
  TORNADOES.

  FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT
  AS STORMS REPEATED DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
  AND TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI...GENERALLY
  EAST OF A WEST PLAINS TO EMINENCE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN OZARKS ON
  MONDAY MORNING.

  WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN MISSOURI
  AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE NEXT THREE HOURS FOR
  CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...GENERALLY
  ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM VERSAILLES TO HOUSTON TO EMINENCE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

TERRY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
438 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N NEVADA              37.88N 94.35W
04/27/2014                   VERNON             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROOFING MATERIAL REMOVED FROM OUTBUILDINGS.

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
449 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             BAKERSFIELD             36.52N 92.14W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       OZARK              MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
500 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             2 W POTTERSVILLE        36.70N 92.06W
04/27/2014  E0.75 INCH       HOWELL             MO   PUBLIC

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
513 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             3 SSE UNIONTOWN         37.80N 94.96W
04/27/2014  E0.88 INCH       BOURBON            KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
523 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     HAIL             CLEAR SPRINGS           37.10N 91.85W
04/27/2014  E1.75 INCH       TEXAS              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KARDELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
525 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             WILLOW SPRINGS          36.99N 91.97W
04/27/2014  E1.00 INCH       HOWELL             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

KARDELL